Blanchard Index
Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations
Index updated July 11, 2025
The Blanchard Monthly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.
Check back each month for insights and commentary from our leading experts and contributors.
The Blanchard Economic Report
Market Movers
Precious Metals
Gold slipped modestly lower in recent days, trading near $3,300 an ounce as extended U.S. trade negotiations ease fears over the global trade war. President Trump pushed forward the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause from the July 9 deadline to August 1. The White House has announced trade deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam and a truce with China to allow more time for negotiations. There are over 100 countries that still need to make a trade deal.
Key Takeaway:
Light profit-taking by short-term traders weighed on gold modestly as the White House continues to negotiate deals. Despite deals, tariffs stand at just over 20%, which is the highest tariff rate since the Great Depression. In 2024, the average tariff rate stood at 2.5%. Higher tariff levels, even with the deals, are expected to slow the economy later this year, which will be gold-supportive.
Washington D.C. Legislation
On July 4, President Trump signed into law the Big Beautiful Bill, which makes the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent. To fulfil a campaign promise, the bill temporarily increases the standard deduction for Americans 65 and older until 2028. The bill also increases the deduction limit for state and local taxes, known as SALT. To help offset some of the tax cuts, the bill also includes cuts to Medicaid. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. federal deficit over the next 10 years.
Key Takeaway
The expected increase in the U.S. debt is positive for gold over the long term. Investors have been buying gold this year amid concerns over runaway federal debt and what that could mean for the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in the future.
Economic Update
June non-farm payrolls grew by 147,000, the Labor Department said. The health care sector added 39,000 jobs in June, while employment showed little change last month in other key industries. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, which has hovered in a tight range between 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024.
Key Takeaway
The jobs data gives the Federal Reserve “cover” to stay in its “wait and see” mode on lowering interest rates.
In the News
Tether Holds an $8 Billion Pile of Gold in a Secret Swiss Vault – Bloomberg, July 8, 2025
“The El Salvador-based crypto company now holds nearly 80 tons of gold, it said. The vast majority of that is owned by Tether directly, making it one of the largest gold holders in the world outside of banks and nation states.”
“Gold, I think should be logically a safer asset than any national currency,” Chief Executive Paolo Ardoino said. “So eventually I think that if people start to get concerned about the potential increase of the debt of United States, they might look at alternatives.”
Market Snapshot
Gold/Silver ratio: 90 oz. silver = 1 oz. gold
How to use it: This ratio reveals the number of ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold, and it measures the relative value of these two metals.
- A ratio higher than 80:1 signals that silver is undervalued relative to gold.
- A ratio below 40:1 suggests silver is overvalued.
Market Performance Year-To-Date
- Gold: up 22%
- Platinum up 48%
- Silver: up 21%
- S. Stocks: S&P 500 up 5.85%
- International Stocks: FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index up 16.08%
Short-term Trend
- Gold: Neutral
- Silver: Up
- S&P 500: Up
Long-term Trend
- Gold: Up
- Silver: Up
- S&P 500: Up
Monetary Policy
- Fed funds rate: 4.25-4.50%
- Next Fed meeting: July 29-30
