Chinas largest bank buys massive London gold vault
Posted onWhen was the last time you heard about a big Western bank investing in the future of the gold trade by building a massive new vault to house the loot? Answer: not lately.
More likely, you’ve heard about those same Western banks selling off those vaults to the new big player in the global gold market: China.
That’s the news that hit Monday when ICBC Standard Bank Plc, the worlds largest bank by assets, announced that it is buying one of the biggest gold vaults in Europe from Barclays Plc. ICBC, not incidentally, just won a role in determining prices as part of the London Bullion Market Association.
Bank to expand gold services: The London vault, which can hold up to 2,000 tons of precious metals, or about $90 billion worth of gold, was only just opened in 2012 in a secret location.
This enables us to better execute on our strategy to become one of the largest Chinese banks in the precious metals market, said ICBC commodities executive Mark Buncombe. The acquisition of a precious metals vault allows us to expand our services in clearing and processing.
The London Guardian described the vault in a report on the sale: Its security precautions reportedly include: a front door that can withstand a direct hit from a rocket-propelled grenade; an electrified roof; and plinths that have been sunk to keep out anyone ambitious enough to try to tunnel in.
ICBC had sought Deutsche Bank vault: ICBC had reportedly bought the lease to Deutsche Banks massive London gold vault back in January, but that deal is said to have fallen through. The purchase from Barclays now fills that slot.
ICBC’s vault purchase comes on the heels of its new collaboration with the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange Society. The partners are reportedly planning to build the biggest gold vault in the world and establish a trading hub that would link Hong Kong, Macau, Qianhai, and Shenzhen.
The acquisition of the Barclays vault is more concrete evidence that China is aiming for a tighter grip on the West’s gold-trading epicenter of London while also expanding its domestic trade via ambitious new plans such as its yuan-denominated gold-pricing fix on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
China dominates in terms of actual physical gold trading, CNN confirmed. Gold imports to China have surged over 700% since 2010, and the country overtook India to become the worlds biggest gold consumer in 2013.
With the West busy trading paper and electronic representations of gold (such as ETFs, futures, and options), China is busy working to corner the market on physical gold. Get your physical metal while you still can.
Fed not ruling out negative rates under very adverse scenario
Posted onThe Federal Reserve has two meetings scheduled for this summer, first on June 14-15 (with accompanying press conference by Chairwoman Janet Yellen), followed by July 26-27.
Several of Yellens lieutenants, including Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, have been making hawkish noises. And Fridays retail-sales report, which easily beat expectations with a 1.3% increase for April, is the latest catalyst that the Fed could cite for raising interest rates during the summer.
Congressmans query answered: But despite these calls to raise rates, its important to remember that the Feds big boss, Yellen, remains a super dove when it comes to monetary policy. Her penchant for extreme monetary accommodation was borne out in a letter made public last week.
U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, D-California, published Yellens response to a question he submitted about what the Fed might do if another serious economic downturn occurred. His question was a followup to Yellens February appearance before a House committee.
Yellen responded that she wont rule out imposing negative interest rates here in the U.S. Negative rates, which are currently in place in Japan and Europe, have been hailed as one of the most gold-bullish policies enacted in recent years.
Tool for additional accommodation: Under negative rates, a central bank charges other banks fees for storing their cash. Those lower-level banks in turn pass those costs on to their customers. The result is that instead of getting an interest payment for keeping cash at a bank, those depositors instead pay for that privilege. The end result is that they have no incentive to keep their money at the bank. Gold, which has no yield under normal conditions, thus has a positive carry under negative rates. In contrast, cash in a bank becomes a money-losing proposition.
Negative interest rates are a tool employed by countries in Europe and elsewhere, Yellen wrote to Sherman. By some accounts, these policies appear to have provided additional policy accommodation. As I have noted previously, we certainly are trying to learn as much as we can from the experience of other countries. That said, while I would not completely rule out the use of negative interest rates in some future very adverse scenario, policymakers would need to consider a wide range of issues before employing this tool in the United States, including the potential for unintended consequences.
Commenting on Yellens response, Sherman said he interpreted her answer as implicit statement that they have legal authority to impose negative rates in the U.S.
Carlyle founder sees recession: Although some recent data, such as retail sales, suggest that the U.S. recovery is on stable footing, some heavyweight economic players think that the U.S. is overdue for a recession.
For example, private-equity billionaire David Rubenstein, who cofounded the Carlyle Group, noted, Weve been growing at relatively modest rates, and we are due for more of an economic slowdown than weve probably had for the last couple of years. Our last recession ended in June of 2009. Typically you have seven years between recessions. It could go eight years, maybe eight and a half, but it doesnt usually go 10or 11 years.Probably in the first term of the next president we will probably have something close to a recession or something that might be close to very low growth.
A recent Bloomberg story on the issue also found that former Treasury chief Larry Summers, JPMorgan Chase chief economist Michael Feroli, and Conference Board economist Gad Levanon all agree that a recession could be in the cards.
Next president cant stop recession: And former Reagan-era budget chief David Stockman told CNBC that theres no way the next president can stop a recession. Thats been baked into the cake. The idea that this economy is somehow going to get stronger in the second half or that the next president can forestall a recession thats already baked into the cake I think is wrong.
With interest rates already close to zero after only one Fed rate hike in a decades, the central bank still does not have much room left to play with if it needs to cut rates to fend off a more overt slowdown. And if a real crisis erupts, Yellens words cited above already show that negative rates remain in her toolbox. Therefore, gold should be a key defensive element in investors own toolboxes.
Gold can protect you from cybercrime even if the FDIC cant
Posted onGold expert and author Jim Rickards calls it one of the top reasons to invest in gold today: financial theft via computer hacking.
The nation of Bangladesh got a firsthand look at the costs of financial hacking back in February, when $81 million it was storing at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was stolen. The criminals used sophisticated techniques to transfer the cash via the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) network, and experts see similarities to the hacking of Sony Pictures in 2014.
The attackers clearly exhibit a deep and sophisticated knowledge of specific operational controls within the targeted banks knowledge that may have been gained from malicious insiders or cyber attacks, or a combination of both, SWIFT said, warning of a wider and highly adaptive campaign targeting banks.
Critical security gaps remain: And the hits keep on coming. News has surfaced that in late 2015, a Vietnamese commercial bank also was targeted by hackers. Tien Phong Bank of Hanoi issued a statement denying that it incurred any financial losses but admitting that hackers attempted to transfer $1.1 million in funds.
That attack and the $81 million heist from the Bangladesh central bank account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in February are thought to be part of a broad assault on the global banking system by thieves whose operating methods and digital fingerprints are being studied carefully by analysts worldwide, The New York Times reported.
I remain concerned that there are critical security gaps in the international payment system, New York Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney said.
Digital wealth can disappear: These ongoing vulnerabilities now being exploited by hackers mean that investors need to consider storing at least part of their wealth in physical precious metals that are impervious to computer theft.
Rickards agrees, noting that financial hackers are busy all over the world, working individually as well as for sovereign entities. Russian President Vladimir Putin has a 6,000-member cyber brigade working night and day to destroy, disrupt and erase digital wealth, he recently told Bloomberg TV.
I run into billionaires and say, What do you have? And they say, I have stock and bonds, and I say, No, you dont. You have electrons, he noted. Its all digital wealth. This can all be wiped out by Putin and Syria and North Korea, Iran, other countries. The thing about gold, you cant hack it, you cant erase it, you cant delete it. Its tangible.
FDIC accused of lax security: Sure, you can depend on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to back you up if your account is hacked and looted. It pledges to guarantee bank deposits of up to $250,000 for a single account holder.
Of course, the FDICs dirty little secret is that it is wildly underfunded. And ironically, according to a recent report, the agencys own financial data have been subject to breaches, with departing employees leaving with depositors personal data on removable hard drives.
Altogether, more than 160,000 people were affected, Congress discovered at a hearing covering the breaches. To date, FDIC has failed to notify any of those individuals that their private information may have been compromised, Georgia Congressman Barry Loudermilk lamented.
Regrettably, the American people have good reason to question whether their private banking information is secured by the FDIC, hesaid. The agency is failing to safeguard private banking information.
So the very agency charged with guaranteeing Americans deposits is itself allegedly failing on the information-security front. That shocking news, along with the growing list of financial-hacking victims, means its more important than ever to protect yourself with hard assets and precious metals.
Bank of Montreal sees $1,400 gold as more hedge funds pile in
Posted onAdd the Bank of Montreal to the list of major financial institutions that have become bullish on precious metals.
One of its subsidiaries, BMO Capital Markets, has issued a positive medium-term forecast for both gold and silver.
Its projecting that gold will hit $1,400 by the end of first-quarter 2017, up from its previous forecast of $1,200, while it sees silver reaching $22.50 by the same time.
Fed policy key to golds movement: The BMO analysts hedged their optimism by insisting that their forecasts hinge on the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates lower for longer. Maybe the Fed does decide to hike rates in July which would be the biggest downside shock for gold prices, in our view, they said.
They also conceded that gold could see another traditional summertime dip that might damage sentiment.
Gold prices nearly always decline between May and July, Canadas Globe and Mail newspaper noted. If that pattern, which has held true in 36 of the past 40 years, continues, it could deflate the enthusiasm around precious metals.
We are not advocating an extreme doom-and-gloom and $10,000-an-ounce gold price argument, they said.
Big funds load up on bullion exposure: BOM is bullish, and so are some major hedge funds, recent federal filings show. Jana Partners now owns gold for the first time since December 2014, according to Reuters. Barry Rosensteins fund bought 50,000 shares, worth almost $6 million, of the worlds largest gold-linked ETF.
Meanwhile, CI Investments Inc., an investment manager of Toronto-based CI Financial Corp., almost quadrupled their stake in the ETF, becoming the sixth-largest shareholder, Reuters noted.
CI purchased 2.81 million ETF shares to bring the total values of its bullion holdings to $441 million. It also has interest in various gold mining companies.
The buying by some of the largest gold investors highlights how funds rushed back into bullion ETFs, which are backed by physical gold, as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates fade, Reuters added.
The rising tide of bullishness has raised gold ETF holdings to their highest levels in years. The great gold rush of 2016 is gathering pace, Bloomberg reported. Holdings in exchange-traded funds have now surged by a quarter,with investors taking advantage of lower prices over the past two weeks to enlarge stakes on rising concern about central bank policy making worldwide. The holdingshave increased to 1,822.3 metric tons, the most since December 2013.
Gold demand blazes to biggest 1st quarter ever thanks to surging ETF inflows
Posted onEveryone knows that gold just experienced its best quarterly price performance in 30 years, gaining almost 17% and now we know why.
In its Gold Demand Trends report for the first quarter of 2016, the World Gold Council has confirmed that consumption surged in the first three months of the year.
The WGC estimates that almost 1,290 metric tons (t) of the metal were consumed in Q1, a 21% increase year-on-year, making it the second largest quarter on record, behind only to the fourth quarter of 2012, the report found.
ETFs shine and central banks buy: The main driver was the renewed interest in ETFs from Western investors, who were rattled by the volatility in the stock markets because of Chinas economic woes, plunging oil prices, and the Federal Reserves first interest-rate increase in a decade.
This increase was driven by huge inflows into exchange traded funds (ETFs) 364t fuelled by concerns around the shifting global economic and financial landscape, the report noted.
Although coin and bar demand stayed relatively flat with a 1% increase, central banks (chiefly those in Russia and China) also continued to be strong buyers, purchasing 109 tons during the quarter. Its now the 21st straight quarter that central banks have been net buyers of the metal.
From the demand point of view, investment bank and central bank demand … has created a structural shift that will result in stronger demand not only as we see now but over the long run,” WGC executive Juan Carlos Artigas said.
Negative rates bolster bullions allure: On the negative side, the WGC found lower demand in India because of a jewelers strike and a drop in jewelry consumption in China because of falling consumer confidence.
Its been a pretty good start to the year, WGC researcher Alistair Hewitt told Bloomberg. Hewitt also cited the growing occurrence of negative interest rates for making the investment sector the dominant driver of gold demand.
Ongoing market uncertainty and unconventional monetary policies should keep the interest in gold sustained, Hewitt added. “The world hadn’t seen negative rates before. And it’s expanded significantly over the past two years. Investors are now askinghow these moves aregoing to affect a whole range of asset classes and the banking system.”
In fact, the rise of negative rates has even sparked anecdotal reports of a rise in demand for safety deposit boxes in Germany as some customers looked for alternative options in case of further interest rate cuts, the WGC said.
Brexit fears stoke physical purchases: Citing the WGC report, Londons Telegraph also noted that gold coin and bar purchases have increased notably in Great Britain ahead of the June 23 referendum on a Brexit, or potential British exit from the European Union.
Bar and coin demand in the UK climbed by more than 60% both in value and volume terms amid heightened Brexit fears, while improved goldaccess for investors made purchases easier, the Telegraph said.
Looking ahead, the future looks brighter for Asian demand. The jewelers strike India is over, and monsoon season is forecast to be healthy, boding well for robust buying during the fall Diwali celebration. “The monsoon is forecast to be extraordinarily good, said the WGCs VP for Indian operations, Somasundaram PR. Meanwhile, Chinas new yuan-denominated gold-pricing fix in Shanghai, along with Hong Kong reportedly planning the biggest gold vault in the world, suggests that the worlds fastest-growing major economy will remain a top consumer alongside India.
And Western investors have any number of growing motivations to buy gold in the coming months, including a stock market that looks exhausted, a Federal Reserve that could upset the U.S. economy with an ill-timed rate hike, and a presidential election dominated by the wild-card candidate that is Donald Trump.
A philosophy for rare coin investing
Posted onBy Bruce Smith, Senior Portfolio Director and Numismatic Writer at Blanchard and Company
One of the first symbolic, political, and critical economic actions to announce the independence of the newly forming American Colonies was the coining of monies. Investors should embrace these historically significant symbols of the American story when investing in rare coins. More than paper or a certificate, and more than just money to be handed down to the next of kin, these are investments with meaning, virtue, history and passion.
This begs the important question: How do I go about investing money, hard-earned money, in this market?
After two decades of handling portfolios both large and small, I am convinced that several critical principles must be embraced to achieve success.
From coins that cost as little as several hundred dollars apiece to those into the millions, the clients who have prospered the most are those that have implemented the principles shared in following paragraphs. Regardless of ones budget, applying these principles can help deliver handsome rewards.
Investors should always focus on quality over quantity. Many investors come to the rare arena thinking they need to acquire as much bulk as possible that owning many lower priced gold coins is better than placing the same amount of capital into a smaller number of truly rare coins. This is not the case, and the principle is true in any collector market. The rarest art, cars, watches, and historical artifacts are always the ones that are most coveted and the ones that appreciate most substantially. Translate this over into the rare coin arena, and investors should focus on the quality coins that will be sought after by the entire market.
Invest in the rarest coin a budget will allow, and acquire the coins with the lowest populations, the greatest allure, and the biggest story. Acquire the coins that others will compete for when it is time for you to sell.
In the stock market, blue chips are those stocks that have been around for a long time and have historically given strong returns to investors. The rare coin market has its blue chips as well. Blue chip rarities are those sectors of coins that have been very strong producers of investment return over the long-term. These are the various segments of the blue chip market where collectors and investors should put their focus:
Key Date Gold/Key Date Coins
These coins have smaller populations, strong investor sentiment, are important parts of set-building strategies and have great history behind them. Mintages for key dates vary from year to year depending upon certain political, economic, or historical realities, but their demand rarely wanes. Coins become key date through time and circumstance, becoming rare and desirable by comparison to other more common coins.
Early Date Gold: Coins Minted Prior to 1838
These coins are magic. They are full of the history of Americas founding, its patriarchs, and the American ideal. As such, and because they are exceedingly rare especially those dated prior to 1800 these coins are sought after by all savvy investors. Early date gold coins also are very tough to acquire, and when they do appear, they can trade in the moment regardless of the price. Early date silver is also very desirable and extraordinary. Many of these remarkable early silver coins, aesthetically speaking, capture the imagination and hearken back to the early American period unlike any other coins.
Proof Gold
These coins were minted for collectors and have mirror-like finishes that are absolutely breathtaking. Japanese investors have been in the states in recent years acquiring these coins rabidly. Many seasoned investors build entire portfolios of proof coinage. They are truly mesmerizing to view, and the populations are minuscule. In many cases only handfuls were minted. Struck by highly polished dies with precise requirements in place, many were only given to dignitaries. The famous $4.00 Stella coin is one great example.
The Civil War
Talk about history! Has there been another moment in American history that has captivated authors, storytellers, and movie makers more? Because of their history, low survivability, and collector fervor, these coins are a very sought after segment of the market. A rare and exceptional niche would be Civil War proof coinage, which is one of the more coveted sectors of all coinage.
Gold Rush Gold
One could be argued that the American West and the American economy really got their starts on the back of this epic American saga. From the fields of the Gold Rush grew the American spirit of adventure, enterprise, and entrepreneurship. Due to the relatively small number of coins, the history, and the ability to build sets from this period, this is another very strong arena for collectors and investors to explore. Territorial pieces from important sanctioned assay offices make up one of the more interesting sectors for many investors, and some collectors have focused exclusively on this segment.
Branch Mint Gold
Coins minted at mints other than Philadelphia and Denver. The coins to pursue in this category were minted in Dahlonega, Ga., Charlotte, N.C., San Francisco, Calif., and New Orleans, La. These mints generally produced fewer coins and operated for shorter periods of time. Consequently, the rarity factor really favors these specimens, and collectors cannot get enough of them. Typically, the scarcest of these coins are from Charlotte and Dahlonega, but again, it depends on the date, type, and variety. In recent years the New Orleans mint has become a hot market as investors and collectors have gained greater knowledge of coins like the 1838-O half dollar and other rarities.
Pedigree Coins
These are coins with a historically important lineage or story. To own a coin that was previously owned by a famous collector is important to many investors because they realize this history lends itself to a greater potential value. A coin once owned by a king, for example, will have more appeal than the same coin without that pedigree. Some of the pedigrees to look for are: King Farouk, King of Siam, Eliasberg, Trompeter, Norweb, Garrett, Elrod, Reed, Pittman, and Bass. Further, pedigrees can help establish the authenticity of big-dollar coins.
An investor considering a major six- or seven-figure purchase will find great assurance from the evaluation of a coins trading history and important lineage.
Marquis Coins
This is the really exciting stuff. These are the coins that get most of the press. These are the most aggressive of the blue chips. This is where the big boys play. This sector is not for the average investor, and the returns historically havent been average either. These are the Picasso coins, the Rembrandts. In the rare coin market, this is where the big thrills exist.
James F. Byrnes wrote, Too many people are thinking of security instead of opportunity. They seem more afraid of life than death. To really live in the rare coin market, this is the sector to pursue. In fact, many of these coins were owned by the infamous King of Egypt, King Farouk (1933 St. Gaudens Gold Double Eagle, 1913 Liberty Nickel, and the 1804 Silver Dollar), and others by the King of Siam.
The blue chip coins do not wait for the timid investor. They are rare, they are sought after, and they trade quickly. Moreover, in an environment in which the market is doing well and values are climbing, the fever is greater for the real rarities. Do not assume the rest of the market will wait for a collector to make a decision on a truly rare coin. With coins of great rarity its a matter of availability. If the coin you need comes available, have the confidence in your strategy to make the move. Otherwise, you will in all likelihood have to pay more when and if the next opportunity for the same coin arises.
Billionaire Paul Singer touts gold as Goldman Sachs is forced to raise price forecasts
Posted onA day after a JP Morgan commodities expert declared the start of a new bull market in gold, a note from billionaire Paul Singer expressing the same sentiment has emerged. Meanwhile, golds resilience forced longtime bear Goldman Sachs to retool its price forecasts to the upside.
Were actually recommending to our clients to position here for a new and very long bull market for gold, and I think $1,400 is very much in the cards this year, JPMorgans Solita Marcelli told CNBC on Tuesday.
Closer to the beginning than the end: And adding to golds burgeoning bullish sentiment, Elliott Management chief Singer, a longtime gold bull, re-emphasized his position in an April 28 note to clients. It makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree, he said. Investors have increasingly started processing the fact that the worlds central bankers are completely focused on debasing their currencies.
If investors confidence in central bankers judgment continues to weaken, the effect on gold could be very powerful,he added. We believe the March quarters price action could represent something closer to the beginning of such a move than to the end.
Goldman ups targets by $100+: Though Singers love of gold is no surprise, the backtracking of Goldman Sachs is. The investment bank was forced to raise its price forecasts for the coming year, with its three-month target increasing by $100, from $1,100 to $1,200.
Its longer-term forecasts also rose. The firm lifted its six-month target by $130, to $1,180 from $1,050, and its 12-month prediction by $150, to $1,150 from $1,000.
The firm altered its price forecasts after slashing its outlook for further interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve. Still, it hedged its more optimistic stance by emphasizing what it called the metals limited upside because of its views on the Fed, the dollar, and China.
Next president to see recession: Zero Hedge also noted that Goldman has halted its recommendation to short (or bet against) gold, which resulted in a loss for the investment bank. Though we forecast that gold prices will decline from spot over the next 3-12 months (with c.5%-9% downside the changes to our economists rates forecasts act to reduce the degree of downside to our modelled gold price profile and thus change the risk-reward of our previously implemented short gold trade recommendation (published February 15), which we close as a result at a c.4.5% loss, Goldman analysts wrote.
Theres a good chance that Goldman will have to do some more backtracking in the months to come. Why? Because were currently in the fourth-longest economic expansion in more than 150 years. And given how weak growth has been Barack Obama, for instance, will be the first U.S. president in history to never see a quarter of 3% or higher GDP the odds are significantly better than 50-50 that we will have a recession within the next three years, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has predicted. In fact, it would be a record if the next president didnt preside over a recession.
Thus, despite its hawkish talk, the Fed in kneejerk fashion could be forced to backtrack, like Goldman, on its planned rate-hike pace. After all, its counter-intuitive to raise interest rates during economic slowdowns. A handful of Wall Street firms think the Fed is done, or almost done raising rates, after making its first increase in December, noted MarketWatch. Thus, this would be the shortest Fed rate-hike cycle in history, and that eventuality jibes more closely with the gold-price projections of JPMorgan and Elliot Management than that of Goldman Sachs.
U.S. dollars death as top world reserve currency is fine by New York Fed chief
Posted onThe Federal Reserves most powerful branch head, President William Dudley of New York, made some stunning statements Tuesday that seemed to go largely unnoticed by the mainstream media.
At a conference in Zurich, Switzerland, sponsored by the IMF and the Swiss National Bank, Dudley said hes fine with other currencies challenging the supremacy of the U.S. dollar as the worlds reserve currency.
I dont see this as a zero-sum game, Dudley remarked. If other countries currencies emerge to gain stature as reserve currencies, it is not obvious to me that the United States loses, as long as it is being driven by their progress, rather than by the U.S. doing a poorer job.
New options besides the dollar: The more, the merrier, according to Dudley. Will more reserve currencies strengthen the international monetary system? My answer can be summed up in one word: yes, he said. The greater the number of countries that have such attributes, the more stable and sound the global financial system is likely to be.
Moreover, Dudley thinks that more reserve-currency options are good for investors. Having more countries achieve the stature of having a reserve currency would give investors more options and help ensure more liquid capital markets globally, he said. With more reserve currencies available, portfolio diversification opportunities are enhanced, added Dudley.
China waiting in the wings: Well, look out, Dudley, because China is gaining on the greenback. Last year its yuan, or renminbi, currency won informal approval to join the IMFs reserve currency basket known as the SDR, or Special Drawing Right. The yuans expanding reach in cross-trade agreements, along with Chinas massive accumulation of gold, helped Beijing win the approval.
Dudleys perspective might be acceptable from an international standpoint, but remember: He works for Americas central bank, not anyone elses. The U.S. dollar currently is involved in 87% of all foreign exchange transactions around the world, accounts for about 60% of official currency reserves, and is the go-to currency in nearly 60% of all international trade. That amounts to an incredibly exorbitant privilege, as French President Charles de Gaulle once noted. And its apparently a privilege that Fed chieftains like Bill Dudley are prepared to surrender.
My head is still spinning: And at least some of those paying attention to Dudleys speech were taken aback, including Stephen Guilfoyle, managing director at Deep Value Execution Services.
My head is still spinning after New York Fed President William Dudleys comments this morning regarding the U.S. dollars status as the planets leading reserve currency, he said. Yes, I get that with status comes some responsibility (and ticks some people off), but that status allows the Fed to export inflation when needed.There is also no conversion cost when both sides of a trade are in one currency. On top of that, it affords the U.S. the ability to enforce policy without resorting to military means when diplomacy fails. That last one is a big one. Imagine no ability to impose sanctions on the world stage when a Russia or an Iran start doing things that are not in the best interests of world stability.
Call for Dudleys resignation: Guilfoyle added: This is almost unforgivable. Youre not here to defend everyone else; youre here to defend the United States, Bill Dudley. It represents a complete lack of understanding about what is going on in the world and how much of an advantage this is to the United States. Its almost as if hes working for someone else.
The loss of sole reserve currency status for the dollar would mean central banks around the globe liquidating major dollar positions, crashing the dollar on foreign exchange markets and deliveringexplosive price inflation here in the U.S., added Robert Wenzel of the EconomicPolicyJournal.com. Dudley supports this? PresidentObama should call for his immediate resignation.
Prepare now with gold: But thats not going to happen. Instead, we seem to be marching slowly but inexorably toward a new world in which the dollar is no longer the most favored currency. And, indeed, world-reserve status is by no means ever permanent: It was about a century ago that the U.S. dollar displaced the British pound as top dog on the global stage. But the dollars eventual loss of reserve status carries with its some wrenching changes and stiff blows to the American way of life.
With influential policymakers like Dudley pushing for that day to come sooner rather than later, investors might be wise to start hedging for the dollars dethronement with a healthy allocation of gold and silver bullion plus rare coins.
Buy gold for 3 reasons: Brexit, Fed, and Trump vs. Clinton
Posted onAfter topping the $1,300 level last week, gold looked likely to ride that momentum higher, fueled by the tailwind of the disastrous U.S. jobs report issued May 6.
But that hasn’t happened so far this week. Some unexpected strength in the U.S. dollar, feeding on weakness in the Japanese yen, has sent gold back to the $1,260 area. Surging stock prices Tuesday also dimmed bullion’s appeal.
Still, the metal is up about 19% on the year, and many analysts remain bullish. Trading data as of May 3 showed that hedge funds have raised their net-long positions to the highest levels since 2011, while ETF inflows have risen by 50 metric tons since April 25 for the biggest 10-day increase and longest run in two months, Bloomberg reported.
Golds drivers largely intact: The drivers that have lifted gold prices still remain largely intact, including the continuous wavering of the Fed in terms of the rate increases and the softening of the dollar, which introduced a layer of uncertainty in investors mindsets that tends to support the precious metal, Nitesh Shah of ETF Securities told Reuters.
Three catalysts lie ahead this summer that make gold a must-own asset. Warning of a vortex of negative headlines, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Savita Subramanian thinks the S&P 500 could fall back to February lows this June. Whats behind her prediction?
- Great Britain’s June 23 Brexit referendum, in which voters will decide whether the nation should leave the European Union;
- the Federal Reserves next big meeting in June, in which it could raise interest rates for the first time since December; and
- the countdown to a likely bitter U.S. presidential election pitting presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump versus his Democratic counterpart, Hillary Clinton.
Fed tightening into a slowdown: Although the odds of a Brexit approval are unlikely, the jury is still out, and the fallout could jolt Great Britain and the EU across a range of areas, including confidence, investment, public finance, and GDP growth. Investors are increasingly likely to turn to gold as a safe haven ahead of the vote.
Meanwhile, although last weeks jobs report as of now doesn’t favor any Fed rate hike, what the central bank might do remains a great unknown. The stock market tumbled at the start of the year in the wake of Decembers rate increase, and this past quarter has seen a deepening earning recession. If it raises rates in June, the Fed is tightening into a profits recession. This typically does not happen, Subramanian noted. Typically tightening cycles start with profits growth really healthy and right now we’ve got negative year-over-year growth.
And finally, the markets are now becoming increasingly subject to the influence of presidential politicking. Were heading closer and closer to the most polarized election that we’ve seen in our careers, so there’s a lot to worry about, said Subramanian. One of the things we’ve noticed is that about six months ahead of November in an election year, the market typically peaks and trends downward.
Add to this uncertain picture the candidacy of Trump, who is seen in some quarters as a risky wild card in terms of his potential policies, and the likelihood of volatility is running very high.
With gold currently dipping from its 15-month high set Friday and entering its traditional summer lull period, that’s all the more reason to invest in the metal at relatively bargain prices.
$1,400 gold: JPMorgan strategist predicts new and very long bull market for gold
Posted onThere are gold bulls and then there are ultra gold bulls. Count HSBCs chief precious-metals analyst, James Steel, as a garden-variety bull.
Gold is more likely to churn higher, HSBCs James Steel told Bloomberg on Tuesday. We got up to the $1,300 level before hitting resistance, he added. Were moderately bullish. Steel recommends gold chiefly for its insurance and portfolio-diversification properties, with any price gains seen as an added bonus.
And Sprott Asset Management CEO John Wilson classified himself as a pragmatic gold bug in an interview Monday. One of the biggest arguments against gold is that it doesnt bear any interest, it doesnt generate any income. But in a world of negative interest rates, thats better than negative. If you combine with that the fact that it does appear, for the first time since the financial crisis, that central banks globally are maybe running out of what they can do next, that is a bit disconcerting for global investors, and they look to gold as a place to be safe.
$1,400 very much in the cards: But count as an ultra gold bull Solita Marcelli, managing director and global head of fixed income, currencies, and commodities at JPMorgan Private Bank. In her view, gold has a long way to go higher from just under $1,300.
We think that gold can go a lot higher from here, she told CNBC on Tuesday. Were actually recommending to our clients to position here for a new and very long bull market for gold, and I think $1,400 is very much in the cards this year.
Whats behind her bullish view? Negative rates, of course. In fact, she sees gold as eventually replacing sovereign bonds as the go-to safe-haven trade. I think with so many negative nominal rates around the world and even more countries having negative real rates, gold is looking more and more attractive every single day, she said.
When you compare it to negative-yielding assets, it actually pretty much has a positive carry, she added. Also, I think central banks might consider diversifying their reserves into gold with the fear that they might be getting negative rates on their existing holdings, and gold is a great portfolio hedge, I think, in an environment where the world government bonds are yielding at historically low levels. In a way, gold may replace government bonds as the next risk-off trade, so were very hopeful on gold.
More retail participation to come: Despite this weeks correction, which largely stemmed from some unexpected dollar strength, Marcelli is sticking to her guns. In the near term, we might see a mini-correction and a healthy correction because were seeing some extreme positioning, especially in the futures market, so we could see it down to $1,260 or so, or even below, but I would say that $1,400 is very likely this year, she said.
Look for the retail investor to return to gold this year. Although ETF inflows have helped drive gold higher this year, holdings are nowhere near their all-time highs. Gold has moved very fast, so theres a little bit of profit taking there, and I think when that you see more risk-off sentiment in the market and more negative yields coming into the market, theres going to be even more retail participation that we would see in the ETF market, she concluded. I think we saw fast money coming in, but even though ETFs have picked up significantly in January, February, were nowhere close to where the peak was in 2012. So I think people are watching the Fed, watching where the dollar is going to go, but I think there is going to be more legs to the gold rally this year.




