Monday brought news that U.S. manufacturing output collapsed to its lowest level since the financial crisis. Given this underlying weakness in the economy, if the Federal Reserve is actually serious about raising interest rates in June or July, it risks committing a policy error that sets a fresh fire underneath gold prices.

Any Fed rate tightening is widely expected to be bearish for stock prices. That reaction is going to be negative, said Krishna Memani, chief investment officer of OppenheimerFunds. The Fed cant kid itself on that.

The key factor that drives gold is the threat to equities, so if you sort of think through that the Fed rate hike may actually trigger a selloff in equities, that will probably be very positive for gold, and as long as gold holds the $1,200 level, I still think its a pretty good long, argued BK Asset Managements Boris Schlossberg in a recent CNBC appearance.

And one Deutsche Bank team thinks that if the Fed hikes prematurely, we will re-enter the doom loop from a more hawkish Fed to a stronger dollar, lower oil prices, higher [high-yield] credit spreads and lower equity markets. The end result is that the central bank might have to reverse those hawkish measures by cutting rates again.

Greater volatility requires gold: Citing the effects of Fed moves, a major wealth management firm in the United Arab Emirates is going so far as to predict gold will hit $1,400 this year and $1,800 by the end of 2017, Bloomberg is reporting.

We believe that policy mistakes by central bankers, in this case the Federal Reserve, will lead to greater volatility in the global economy, maybe another slide in those growth rates into the future, creating more problems for the financial system, said Gary Dugan, chief investment officer atEmirates NBD PJSC. And so we believe that typically, a client should have 5% to 10% of their portfolio in gold, and should be buying after the recent dips of the last week.

Islamic gold standard could be huge: And that advice could be huge as the Islamic world moves toward developing a gold standard based on Shariah law, which forbids interest payments and investing in industries such as gambling and alcohol. A Bahrain-headquartered group called the Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) is working with the World Gold Council and Amanie Advisors to craft that standard.

A gold standard based on Shariah law would require investment options directly linked to physical bullion not substitutes like Comex gold futures.

So far, Islamic investors have been reluctant to invest in gold because to do so, they would need the metal in physical form as an underlying asset, which is rarely the case in conventional gold trade, Qatars Gulf Times news site reported.

We are almost there in finalizing a gold-standard plan for the AAOIFI, said Shariah expert Mohd Daud Bakar.

Overwhelming demand noted: The upshot is that hundreds of tons of new gold demand could be created, said the WGCs Natalie Dempster. The standard would fill an important gap in the market.

She told the Gulf Times: We found that there is overwhelming demand for gold to play a greater role in Islamic finance. Our discussions with industry participants signal that it will act as a major catalyst for the development of a broad range of Shariah-compliant gold products such as gold accumulation plans and physically-backed gold funds.

Thus, as central banks such as the Fed continue to lose the confidence of investors worldwide, gold should stand to gain, and the Islamic world is positioning itself to become an even greater source of heavy demand for the yellow metal.

The pullback in the gold bullion market was likely not on the minds of those bidding last week for an extremely rare jewel of 19^th-century American numismatics: a $20 Stella from 1879.

But this wasn’t just any Stella. Dubbed the Virgil Brand-Amon Carter-Ed Trompeter-Bob Simpson Quintuple Stella, the coin is the second-finest of just five known to exist one of which resides in the National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian Institution.

And as of this week, this Stella is a member of the rarified class of numismatic coins that have commanded seven figures in 2016 bringing in an incredible $1.6 million! When including a 17.5% buyers premium, the total price paid was $1.88 million.

Classified as a Judd-1643, the coin was certified as PR64 DCAM by PCGS and has seen significant price appreciation over the years.

Star motif replaced the eagle: Stella is the Latin word for star, and to elite coin collectors everywhere, the Stella has always been one of the most elusive and sought-after coins in U.S. numismatic history. Minted in 1879 and 1880, the Stella patterns were the product of a U.S. ambassadors plan for an American currency that would approximate the value of common European coinage of the time and facilitate Americas entry into the Latin Monetary Union. John A. Kasson proposed two metric gold coins and one goloid silver dollar. The two gold coins would be a $4 Stella and a $20 Quintuple Stella, each containing 10% silver. The silver dollar would contain 4% gold.

The Mint then went to work on creating pattern coins for Congress inspection. Because the bald eagle already adorned all domestic coins, the star was chosen as the motif for the United States go-to coin for international trade.

The $4 Stella exists in two versions: the Flowing Hair depiction of Miss Liberty, created by Mint Engraver Charles E. Barber; and the Coiled Hair design, created by Barbers assistant engraver, George T. Morgan. In the Flowing Hair version, Lady Liberty sports cascading locks and a headband etched with Liberty, in contrast to the restrained bun atop the Coiled Hairs design. The quintuple Stella reproduced the $20 Liberty Head design of the time on the obverse but added the legend “30G1.5S3.5C35GRAMS” in place of the encircling stars.

Some found their way to D.C. bordellos: Despite the Stella’s beautiful design, it never received the official authorization of Congress. The Stella has now joined an exclusive club of highly coveted collectible patterns that includes the 1856 Flying Eagle Cents, Gobrecht Dollars, and Wire Edge Indian Head Eagles.

Though these pattern pieces all proofs never entered circulation, several hundred were sold to congressmen at cost, eventually fueling a 19th-century sex scandal of sorts when numerous Stellas were spotted as jewelry pieces adorning the necks of madams operating bordellos in the District of Columbia. Many Stella survivors show the wear and tear of having been used as jewelry or pocket pieces.

But the Stella that sold for $1.6 million this week is not one of those damaged specimens its the cream of the crop and another real-time marketplace example proving that the best rare coins will almost always generate mega-prices for their lucky owners.

Do you think that rising interest rates are necessarily bad for gold? Think again. Listed below are five analyses that suggest gold prices can actually increase if the Federal Reserve lifts its federal funds rate this year.

Gross misinterpretation of the Feds April minutes have sent many investors into a tizzy, with stocks flirting once again with negative performance returns for 2016 before bouncing back this week.

But a review of recent and past analyses of golds performance during rising-rate environments suggests that the yellow metal can indeed increase in value along with rates. We saw the metal display unexpected resilience most recently this year, after the Fed raised rates in December and gold took off on a 20% run higher.

Falling behind the inflation curve: The conventional wisdom, of course, is that Fed tightening is bad for gold, mainly because higher U.S. rates can strengthen the dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding commodities, wrote Julian Jessop of Capital Economics, who is predicting $1,350 gold this year. Prices have indeed faltered this week in the wake of the hawkish FOMC minutes. However, there is surely more to say than this; after all, gold and silver prices actually rallied in the weeks and months after the Fed first raised rates last December.

The upshot is that gold can still rally especially if U.S. wage and price pressures continue to build. Indeed, even our forecasts assume that the Fed will continue raising rates only gradually and to a still-low level by past standards, which may fuel concerns that it is falling behind the curve on inflation.

Gold can rise after a lag: And Jessops analysis echoes July 2015 research from HSBC showing that gold advanced after the Fed lifted rates on four prior occasions to its December rate hike.

History shows that gold prices also fall leading into a rate hike and generally rise, though sometimes with a lag, after the first rate hike. Investors are apt to unload gold in anticipation of tightening monetary policies. This negative pressure is sustained until the Fed announces a rate hike, which then eases the negative sentiment towards the yellow metal. This explains the subsequent rallies in gold that occurred shortly after the Fed announced the first rate hike in the last four tightening cycles.

Negative correlation inconclusive: And going further back in time, The Secular Investor blogger studied golds behavior during rate increases (1972-74; 1977-80; 1980-81; 1983-84; 1986-89; 1993-95; the late 1990s; and 2004-06) and verified that hikes do not definitively serve as a coffin nail for bullion prices.

His findings? How can any serious person conclude that gold will, without any doubt, trade lower in the next interest rate cycle? he wrote. Statistically, we just proved that it was the case in only 2 of the 7 instances.

1980s high hit amid rocketing rates: And Ben Kramer-Miller of The Cheat Sheet also likes golds odds during rate-hike periods. A rising Fed funds rate has, more often than not, coincided with rising gold prices, he noted. This is exemplified by golds bull market in the 1970s. From 1971 through 1974, the Fed funds rate went from roughly 5% to 10%, during which time the price of gold rose from $35 per ounce to roughly $200 per ounce. The Fed funds rate fell back to 5%by 1975 as the price of gold fell by nearly 50%. The Fed funds rate soared from 1977, peaking at more than 20% in 1980, and during that time frame, gold reached a peak of $850 per ounce. If we look at the modern-day bull market, we similarly see strength in the gold price as interest rates rose from 2004 through 2007, and we saw gold hit its major $1,000 per ounce peak just as the Fed funds rate began to plummet.

Higher rates bearish for stocks, bonds: Finally, Adam Hamilton of Zeal Research has performed an exacting analysis of golds correlation with Fed tightening and concluded: Golds mighty secular bull of the 1970s, which greatly dwarfed the 2000s one, happened during a time of high and rising interest rates!And then golds subsequent multi-decade secular bear in the 1980s and 1990s unfolded during a long span of interest rates relentlessly falling on balance.Gold rallying with rising rates and slumping with falling rates?Thats not in the script.

Rising and higher interest rates are actually bullish for gold for one simple reason.And that is they are actually very bearish for stocks and bonds.Gold is an alternative asset that shines the brightest when the conventional asset classes are suffering.And nothing pummels stock and bond markets like rising interest rates.That is the sole reason the Fed has been so darned slow in normalizing interest rates!

April minutes no hike guarantee: Therefore, gold investors might have nothing to fear but fear itself if the Fed carries through with its threatened rate hike this year. And that remains a big IF. Investors may be misjudging how hawkish the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting really were, one Bloomberg analyst speculated at the start of a word-parsing exercise of the latest Fed minutes.

Indeed, contrarian economist Marc Faber is just one of numerous analysts who think the Fed is bluffing about a June rate hike. My view is that in June they will not move, that they will not increase rates. And that the market will begin to perceive that the Fed wants to support asset markets, which they have stated on numerous occasions before, and that gold, which from now on may correct about 5% or so, will start to move up again.

The bearish move in gold prices this week hasnt stopped one of the worlds biggest banks from raising its price targets.

Citi Research is predicting the yellow metal will average $1,280 in the current quarter, $1,300 in the July-September period, and $1,250 in the final three months of the year. Its full 2016 average price target is now $1,255 up from a late January estimate of $1,070.

The forecast is slightly counter-intuitive because it projects strength during the summer months, when prices are normally weaker, and a dip in the fourth quarter, normally a robust period for gold demand.

An opportune moment for buyers: Nonetheless, now is the time to invest in bullion, the bank said. While prices have fallen 3% (month to date) in May, we believe this may in fact prove to be an opportune moment to buy the dip, strategists wrote in a note issued Tuesday, titled Let the Sunshine in as Commodities Enter New Age of Aquarius.

In fact, the bank has become bullish on a large section of the commodities complex, especially oil. Commodities markets appear to have turned the corner and, led by the petroleum market, are accelerating their price recovery from the lows of the last year, they wrote.

Brexit could put breaks on Fed: While acknowledging the Federal Reserves hawkish tone in its April minutes, Citi nonetheless doesnt think the central bank will raise interest rates in June.

The risk of Brexit (U.K. exit from the European Union) is likely to complicate matters for U.S. policymakers, and we do not expect the Fed to move until after the June referendum, the note said. With the presidential election in November, the Fed likely can pull off only one rate hike this year, it added, effectively limiting the likelihood of a correction in gold prices for the next two quarters.

The new forecast contrasts with a note Monday in which Citi warned that gold could fall to $1,050 or even below $1,000 a level it hasnt seen since September 2009 if the ICE Dollar Index (DXY) returns to 100 or higher.

Of course, ongoing and future dollar strength is predicated upon one or more Fed rate hikes. Sure, the Fed could boost rates by 25 basis points at some point this year in order to give itself a cushion to cut again later, but it can only go so far. One and done at most, and that means the overall long-term picture for gold remains bullish.

We think that the recent setback in gold prices is temporary and drivers will turn more positive again, leading to higher gold prices later this year and next year, ABN AMRO strategist Georgette Boele wrote in a note this week.

The Dutch bank remains bullish on the yellow metal, and here are three more reasons why golds ascent isnt over, summarized from recent commentary from other respected financial analysts:

Seasonal weakness is normal: With summer about to begin, golds pullback is no surprise. The price tends to follow seasonal patterns, with the hotter months historically serving as its low point for any given year.

As U.S. Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes noted, citing a chart covering the past 30 years, in all periods, gold contracted in May to early summer, then rallied in anticipation of Ramadan this year beginning June 4 and Indias festival of lights and wedding season. India has one of the largest Muslim populations in the world, and for at least 5,000 years theyve adhered to the tradition of giving gold as gifts during religious and other celebrations.

Predictably so, the yellow metal has retreated somewhat this month, following its best start to a year in 30 years and its best-ever first quarter for demand. Thus, the price lull were seeing now is nothing new.

Most oversold since December: With the gold price falling to four-week lows under $1,230 Tuesday, the metal is ripe for the taking by bargain hunters. Right now, just looking at the Relative Strength Index, gold is the most oversold its been since mid-December, so this is an ideal opportunity for those who have not gotten in to get in now, Lindsey Group strategist Peter Boockvar told CNBC on Tuesday.

All the more reason to buy now is that Boockvar sees a rebirth starting for gold. This is just the beginning of a new bull market in the metals, he said predicting that the price would top the 2011 nominal record high above $1,900. I dont think the Fed is going to be able to get away with more than one rate hike. On the new price record, he cautioned, I dont know when it will happen; I do think it will happen, though. And if it is a new bull market, if Im correct with that, well, typically, new bull markets exceed the prior bull market peak at some point. Whether it happens in a couple of years, Im not sure, but Im pretty confident that it will get up to those levels and will likely exceed those levels, as markets tend to overshoot.

A Fed rate hike could pound stocks: Interest-rate hikes will hurt equities, which have become dependent on easy-money policies from the Fed. Equity markets will probably go down 10%, which they did, or close to it, twice before, once August 2015, the second time January 2016, gold expert and author Jim Rickards told RT this week. Both times the markets fell off a cliff, and in January you had a more than 10% technical correction. And the reason for this is that throughout most of quantitative easing, QE1/QE2/QE3, the Fed was trying to operate through what they call the portfolio channel, which is, Ill make fixed income so unattractive for you, with such low rates, that youll go out and buy stocks and real estate, pump up the asset values, create a wealth effect, people will lend and spend. The problem is theyve created two bubbles. Theyve got a real-estate bubble; theyve got a stock bubble. Those channels arent working anymore. The stock market really peaked out in kind of May 2015. Thats not the technical high; but its just gone sideways with a certain amount of volatility for over a year at this point. My guess is they wont raise rates, but if they do, look out below.

Gold has predictably fallen this week in the wake of some hawkish statements from various Federal Reserve members, as well as the central banks April minutes. But the dip near $1,255 on Thursday represents another buying opportunity before the gold bull resumes its march higher. Heres why:

Although the Fed minutes were interpreted as a firm signal that an interest-rate increase is coming this summer, a quick reading reveals that the Chairwoman Janet Yellen and company are just up to their same-old same old in other words, wait-and-see nonaction papered over with tough talk.

Fed still weighing incoming data: Members generally judged it appropriate to leave their policy options open and maintain the flexibility to make this decision based on how the incoming data and developments shaped their outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as their evolving assessments of the balance of risks around that outlook, the minutes read.

Taking the statement at face value, the minutes do not suggest that an increase in rates next month is a done deal it is the same old data dependent Fed trying to have it both ways, wrote Komal Sri-Kumar of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies.

Brexit vote gives Fed an out not to hike: Frankly, there are too many land mines ahead to allow the Fed to act. Just days after the banks June 14-15 meeting, voters in the United Kingdom decide in a June 23 referendum whether to leave the European Union in a Brexit. At present, the likely result is too close to call. Thus, if the Fed raised rates and thus strengthened the U.S. dollar, it would be doing so without clarity on the Brexit situation with potentially volatile effects on global markets.

Moreover, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates at a meeting that is unaccompanied by a subsequent press conference from Chairwoman Janet Yellen to explain the policy decision and soothe rattled markets. Such a conference is scheduled for just after the June meeting, but there isnt one after the July meeting, so that also lessens the likelihood of a rate hike then, unless Yellen were to conduct one spontaneously.

U.S. election to keep rate hike at bay: The next post-meeting press conference doesnt occur until September. But by that time, the campaigning for the U.S. presidential election will be in full frenzy, and the Fed dares not raise rates unless it risk being accused of interfering in politics. The Nov. 1-2 meeting on the eve of the election therefore also is out. That leaves us with the Dec. 13-14 meeting for the Feds final opportunity in 2016.

So gold investors shouldnt buy into the Feds bluster, but rather should see this rhetoric-induced gold-price weakness as a chance to buy bullion.

Gold under pressure from shorts: A couple of other factors also could keep gold prices from resuming their ascent for the time being. For one, according to Gold Newsletter publisher Brien Lundin, there is massive net short position by the large commercial category of paper gold traders, recent futures data show.

These traders are aligned with gold miners and refiners who hedge positions in order to lessen overall risk. Lundin sees the chance for a significant correction in the price at some point over the next month or so.

Cycle lows could spark big uptrend: Conversely, if some unexpected event transpires thats negative for equity markets, gold could benefit through short covering. However, if some event or economic data point sparks a spike in gold and forces these commercials to cover their shorts, we could see a major rally emerge, Lundin said.

And in a separate analysis, noted technician Tom McClellan sees the potential for gold to hit a cyclical low later this year. However, that could be short-term pain for longer-term gain. We should expect a big uptrend to commence out of that major cycle bottom, he wrote. It will be hard for gold bugs to be patient and wait for that major cycle low to arrive, but the long-term cycles say that the ensuing rally should be worth the wait.

Gold now in seasonally weak period: Morever, gold is just entering its historically weak seasonal period, which begins in late spring and continues until the fall. Since gold began trading freely in the U.S. in the early 1970s, bullion has produced an annualized return of only 1.2% in the March-August period, versus 13.4% in the other six months of the year, observed Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch.

Demand usually picks up once the summertime lull is over and Indias gold-buying festival and wedding seasons begin, running from October to December. Thus, while soft prices could lie ahead, experienced gold investors know that this temporary situation offers a strategic buying opportunity.

If I werent already long gold, Id be buying on this dip as I dont see it falling much lower, Adam Koos of Libertas Wealth Management Group told MarketWatch.

Fundamentals still favor gold: And as Altavest chief Michael Armbruster reminds us, the global backdrop for gold remains bullish, with negative interest rates from Japan to Europe being a game changer for gold. Beyond interest rates, currencies around the world are being devalued via central bank policy. Chinas currency is still overvalued and likely to weaken further, he said. So, the picture really doesnt change for gold unless the Fed hikes rates more than 100 basis points from here.

And dont look now, but the major U.S. stock indexes are again in negative territory for the year at this latest rate-hike threat. As we saw earlier this year in the wake of the Feds December rate increase, such hikes can actually be good for gold because they divert investment capital from stocks and drive it into the safe haven of gold.

So, the message to take away from this weeks Fed news is:

1. Although the Fed could raise rates in June, its unlikely because of the Brexit vote. And if it doesnt act in June, chances are it wont until at least December because of the presidential election.
2. The weakness were seeing in gold is at least partly because of annual seasonal trends, and history tells us that gold almost always recovers by the fall.

Keep in mind, too, that despite the latest dip, gold is still up roughly 20% on the year. For the savvy gold investor, the recent pullback is a chance to get in on the cheap.

Hedge-fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller, who vociferously came out in favor of gold during a presentation at the recent Sohn Investment Conference, has a famous mentor: fellow billionaire George Soros.

Now Soros, who once employed Druckenmiller as a portfolio manager at his famed Quantum Fund, is jumping back into the gold camp for the first time in years, regulatory filings for the first quarter of 2016 show. And whats more, Soros has become even more bearish on stocks.

Banking on bullion, miners: On the gold front, Soros 13F filing with the SEC reveals that he placed a bullish 1.1 million-share call option on the worlds biggest bullion-linked ETF, the GLD. The new wager comes after Soros Fund Management sold off about 531,000 GLD shares in the first quarter of 2013.

Soros also purchased sizeable stakes in the worlds biggest gold producer as well as the worlds largest precious metals streaming company.

As for stocks, Soros substantially cut his exposure a move that was no surprise given his publically bearish stance on China and its debt problems, which he warned could result in a bigger crash than the 2008-09 crisis.

Accordingly, Soros cut his long equity holdings by more than one-third, to just $4.5 billion. He also doubled down on his bearish bets on the S&P 500, buying more than $200 million worth of SPY puts, or bets that the stock indexs price will fall.

Longtime bull Paulson takes profits: Not every billionaire was buying, however. Paulson & Co. chief John Paulson, who made his fortune betting against subprime housing and also with early investments in gold, sold 17% of his GLD shares, reducing his 5.8 million-share stake to 4.8 million. He still remains the third-biggest investor in the gold fund, after BlackRock and First Eagle Investment Management.

If you were already long, which clearly Paulson was, maybe hes just taking some profits off the table, TD Securities strategist Mike Dragosits told Reuters, alluding to the $5 billion Paulson reportedly earned from gold in 2010.

Paulsons current take on gold is unclear, but count Soros in as a member of the heavyweight division of gold bulls that currently includes Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, David Einhorn, Paul Singer, and Jeff Gundlach.