The recent uptick in the stock market was widely touted as a sign that the dark clouds over the global economy had lifted.

As a result, gold has been falling this week in anticipation of the Federal Reserves policy statement Wednesday after its two-day meeting. Although its not expected to raise interest rates this week, conventional wisdom holds that it might do so at its June meeting.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the Marriner Eccles Building: U.S. retail-sales data were released for February, and the news was terrible for our consumer-driven economy, in which the manufacturing sector already is in recession.

Shocking 2-month decline: Retail sales fell 0.1% last month, and whats even worse, Januarys 0.2% gain was revised lower to a 0.4% drop. Retail sales have dropped 0.54% in the last two months the biggest sequential drop in a year, Zero Hedge noted.

Moreover, the new retail numbers bode ill for U.S. growth projections and for the idea that underlying economic conditions justify current stock prices. While the YoY change rose from +3.0% to +3.1%, it remains below historically-recessionary levels and given the revisions suggests Q1 GDP growth markdowns are on their way with sales down MoM for every cohort from gas stations to furniture, Zero Hedge added.

Fed, top banks cut GDP: And ZH was correct: The Atlanta Feds GDPNow forecasting tool reduced its first-quarter growth estimate to 1.9% from 2.2%, citing the retail report.

And private investment banks also followed suit. Barclays slashed its U.S. GDP forecast from 2.4% to 1.9% based on the sour retail numbers. Credit Suisse cut its target to 2% from 2.4%, while TD Securities reduced its number from 2.3% to 1.9%.

Perhaps the strongest statement came from CNBC star Jim Cramer, who called the new stats devastating. Im just kind of flummoxed, he said. A number comes out that makes us feel great, and then that number is taken away.

Fed now in no hurry to hike: The retail number takes the notion of a Fed rate hike in March pretty much off the table, some analysts say, forcing the central bank to balance that poor data against a nominally strong February employment report.

At the moment, it is hard to see GDP with a 2% handle. Based on todays lackluster sales report, policymakers will be in no hurry to raise interest rates, MUFG Union Bank economist Chris Rupkey told Reuters.

A low-rate environment signals unease with the current economic picture and therefore is supportive for gold.

The gold rally paused Wednesday as traders booked profits ahead of Thursdays key European Central Bank meeting.

The metal was trading near $1,254 early Wednesday, down slightly as markets await more quantitative easing or steeper negative interest rates from the ECB. More QE weakens the euro and strengthens the dollar in the short term, thus facilitating the dip in gold prices Wednesday.

However, the recent move up in gold followed by some profit-taking is normal, noted RBC Capital exec George Gero.

Golds chart still looks bullish, but is overdue for a correction within the context of a bull market, added Michael Armbruster of Altavest.

Fed rate hike likely on hold: Still, the dollars strength shouldnt last for long because the Federal Reserve isnt expected to raise interest rates at its meeting next week, according to the Wall Street Journals Fed expert, Jon Hilsenrath, who wrote that uncertainties about markets and global growth should keep the central bank on hold until at least April or June. Low rates tend to weaken the dollar while strengthening gold.

In fact, any Fed rate hikes could be really dicey for stocks, according to DoubleLine Capital exec Jeff Gundlach, who also reiterated his forecast for $1,400 gold prices this year in a presentation Tuesday.

Heroin and cocaine lifted stocks: Even former Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher admitted that the bull market in stocks is the result of the monetary cocaine and heroin that the Fed injected into the system the create a wealth effect. Now we are maintaining it with Ritalin, Fisher added. How long can this artificially induced stock bubble last? The cracks have been showing for quite a while.

With the recent rally showing signs of petering out, stocks seem caught in an either-or trap: The deflationary trends exemplified by the slide in oil keep prices depressed, extending the pressure on producers and, most importantly, their balance sheets, wrote Randall Forsyth at Barrons. Or the long-anticipated lift in inflationary pressures may finally be here, resulting in increased wage costs, squeezed profit margins and higher interest rates, which in turn depresses price/earnings multiples.

Gold ETFs log record streak: Gold could continue to rise on fears over the stock market, which isnt out of the woods yet despite recent gains. Allianz adviser Mohamed El-Erian warned in a column that if current economic problems arent solved, the financial volatility experienced earlier this year will not only return; it could also turn out to have been a prologue for a notable risk of recession, greater inequality, and enduring financial instability.

Although the major gold ETF, the GLD, also paused its advance Wednesday, overall gold exchange-traded-fund holdings have logged an amazing and unprecedented 40-day streak of inflows.

Gold supply gap feared: Cautious optimism on gold also was felt at the major mining conference under way this week in Toronto, the PDAC. TD Newcrest analyst Greg Barnes renewed concerns over a looming supply squeeze in bullion. New capital spending has been cut, no one is building new mines, no one is looking for new mines. Well have quite a rally by the end of the decade.

Gold supply is beginning to roll over, he added. Very few new mines are being built and it could be a supply issue in four to five years.

Of course, miners in one part of the world are looking for new gold the Chinese. Chinas state-owned Zijin Mining Group attended PDAC, and its executive director reaffirmed that his company wants to become a global leading company via new projects and acquisitions. Its unlikely, however, that much of that gold will be available in the Western world as China works to increase its holdings, but surreptitiously, without noticeably driving the price up.

Negative rates a golden no-brainer: But the most bombshell statement on golds prospects came this week from legendary gold-mining executive Pierre Lassonde, the chairman of Franco-Nevada Mining, who declared in a BNN interview that the five-year bear market for gold is over and we are at the beginning of a new bull market. And Im very, very sure about that one. If you look at gold today, its moving up in every single currency, every single currency, and thats the definition of a bull market.

The key driver for gold now is the growing prospect of negative interest rates, along with an accompanying war on physical cash, around the world. The biggest knock on gold for the longest time is that you have to pay to carry it; it has a negative carry. Well, now even bonds have a negative carry. Now it becomes, if I look 10 years out, what would I rather own? A government bond, where theyre going to confiscate for sure 6% at the end, or I can buy gold, it doesnt cost me anything to carry, and in 10 years time, it may be worth a factor of that.

Lassonde concluded that the gold-Dow ratio is greatly out of proportion, and a realignment could mean major bullion prices in the future. In 1980 gold was at $800 and the Dow was at 800; in 1934 gold was $36 and the Dow was at 37 where is the Dow today? 16,000. Do I know that its going to go back to 1:1 I dont know, but if history is a bit of a lesson, even if it goes to 2:1, thats $8,000 Im slightly optimistic.

Blanchard and Company has long touted the advantages of physical gold ownership over substitutes such as gold-linked ETFs, mining stocks, and futures contracts.

And with gold hitting 13-month highs Friday despite a superficially strong February jobs report, interest in the yellow metal is growing by leaps and bounds. However, investors shouldnt mistake high-profile surrogates such as gold ETFs for the real deal.

For more evidence on why physical bullion is the way to go, look no further than the behemoth investment firm BlackRock, which was forced Friday to suspend fresh inflows into its roughly $8 billion flagship gold ETF, the iShares Gold Trust (IAU). [Note: BlackRock announced Monday that it had resumed issuing shares but could face penalties for some premature issuances.]

Fund caught off guard by demand: Why the suspension? Surging interest in the precious metal caught the worlds largest money manager off guard, Bloomberg reported. Investors had piled into the fund so fast that BlackRock didnt register in time with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to issue more shares.

BlackRock on Friday issued a formal statement on the matter, noting, Since the start of 2016, in response to global macroeconomic conditions, demand for gold and for IAU has surged among global investors. IAU has $8 billion in assets under management, and has expanded $1.4 billion year to date. February marked its largest creation activity in the last decade. This surge in demand has led to the temporary exhaustion of IAU shares currently registered under [securities law].

Potential for super spike: For those looking to buy gold via these mechanisms, the statement isnt very reassuring. Moreover, the suspension of new share sales raised concerns that perhaps the supply of available physical metal has been outstripped by this surging demand. More than $5 billion worth of investment capital has flowed into the largest ETF, the GLD, in the first two months of 2016 alone. And according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, gold funds attracted inflows for the fourth week in a row, bringing the four-week total up to $7.9 billion, the largest in seven years.

This run into gold is one reason why the ratio of physical gold to so-called paper gold, as represented by investment-product shares, is at all-time highs. The ratio has spiked significantly, and Im starting to get reports from around the world (from) different correspondents and they say you cant get gold, not in size, author and strategist Jim Rickards told RT. We may be heading for a train wreck there where someone is going to fail to deliver some physical (bullion) that someone demands and then that could set off a super spike in gold prices.

Negative rates terrifically bullish for gold: Why the massive interest in gold now from people who werent giving it a second thought back in 2015? Answer: The increasing talk of central banks imposing negative interest rates and an accompanying ban on physical cash to facilitate those rates.

Why negative rates? The push for negative interest rates and a ban on cash has nothing to do with terrorists or money laundering, The Epoch Times argued. It has everything to do with bailing out the banks and trying to remedy central bank policy that didnt work in the past.

With little to no return on bank deposits, money-market funds, and run-of-the-mill bonds, investors are increasing seeking alternatives such as gold.

This is a terrifically bullish moment for gold, commented James Grant, publisher of Grants Interest Rate Observer. Its a very sad moment for the institution of fiat money. But fiat money has never worked out well in the very long run.

Negative rates drive up hard-asset values: Under a negative-rate regime, people may even prefer to own heavy pieces of machinery, art, diamonds, and musical instruments, which preserve purchasing power relatively better than a negative rate on banking deposits, The Epoch Times added. People usually chose those methods to preserve purchasing power during times of hyperinflation, like in the Weimar Republic.

And while stocks and real estate will certainly get a boost, most studies show that real, inflation-adjusted returns are often negative because wrong incentives distort the pricing mechanism. Capital is misallocated, and transactions slow down if people are trading goods and services in gold ingots rather than wire transfers.

Cash hoarding sweeps Europe: Already were seeing the war on cash gain steam, with the German newspaper Der Spiegel reporting this week that the Bavarian Banking Association has recommended that its member institutions start hoarding physical currency. And Germanys Social Democrat party has recently proposed setting an upper limit on cash transactions, to 5,000 euros, while also abolishing the 500-euro note. Meanwhile, Sweden has set a five-year timeline to carry out its own cash elimination.

With moves like these, its no wonder than investors are piling into gold funds. Only, gold ETFs, being just paper and electronic representations of bullion, are in fact fools gold. Theyre not the real thing, just poor substitutes. When push comes to shove, nothing beats actual physical gold at your fingertips when you need it in a crisis.

The respected real-estate consultancy Knight Frank has released its 2016 Wealth Report, and the news continues to be bullish for rare coins, but not so bullish in the short-term for ultra-high-net-worth individuals.

Slowing growth trends around the world apparently have affected the number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (or UHNWI) created in 2015, Knight Frank reported. Almost 6,000 people dropped out of the UHNWI wealth bracket in 2015 a 3% slide. This downward shift reflected slower economic growth and the more volatile financial climate, it noted. The rate of global economic growth slowed in 2015, while growth in equity, commodity and other asset prices also decelerated.

First annual UHNWI dip since crisis: A UHNWI is defined as a person with $30 million or more in assets. Meanwhile, the number of plain old millionaires also fell in 2015. Still, Knight Frank expects the populations of UHNWIs and millionaires to grow over the longer term, especially in Asia, but for now the global slowdown has clearly impeded the increase in membership of this exclusive club.

Despite longer-term growth, data from 2015 shows the first annual dip in the global ultra-wealthy population since the financial crisis, Knight Frank researcher Grainne Gilmore said. Last year, only 34 out of the 91 countries for which individual data is compiled saw a rise in the numbers of UHNW individuals.

Luxury-collectibles index up 7%: As for the investments of the ultra-rich, luxury collectibles continue to draw big money and also provide solid returns. While the major stock indexes around the globe began to struggle for instance, Londons leading index the FTSE 100 fell 5% in 2015 Knight Franks Luxury Investment Index rose by 7% last year. The index tracks the performance of 10 high-end asset types: antique furniture, Chinese ceramics, watches, colored diamonds, jewelry, stamps, art, wine, classic cars, and rare coins.

Classic cars continued to lead the way in 2015, gaining 17% on the year. Numismatic coins, however, grabbed second place with a 13% advance. Fine wines and watches tied for third place, logging 5% increases. Art, which so often grabs headlines about record prices, only managed to yield a 4% rise in 2015, tying with jewelry.

Numismatics return 232% over decade: For the longer term, rare coins solidified their top-tier status among luxury investments by finishing second behind classic cars over a five-year period: Vintage autos returned 162%, while coins gained 92%. And over a 10-year period, coins finished in third place with a 232% increase in value, versus 241% for wine and 490% for classic cars.

The overall Knight Frank luxury index has returned 56% over five years and 200% over the past decade.

Emerging markets to fuel collectibles market: The growing preponderance of low and even negative interest rates worldwide should keep the ultra-rich quite focused on investing in hard assets and high-end collectibles.

Theyre already pouring their money into massive yachts. Sales of luxury vessels longer than 24 meters soared 40% in 2015, according to the Wealth Report.

Overall, the future looks healthy for coins and collectibles in general, especially as incomes grow in China, India, and other parts of Asia. As Knight Frank noted, As individuals in emerging markets become wealthier, we expect to see the number of collectors increase. Not only do collectables represent a safe asset investment, they are a way of illustrating status and a sense of having arrived.

For more information about high-net-worth individuals, including their views about estate planning, philanthropy, and investments of passion, see the full Knight Frank report here.

Donald Trumps dominance of the Super Tuesday primaries has all but ensured him the Republican presidential nomination mathematically, anyway. Whether the GOP establishment will contest his ascendancy is another matter altogether.

But what does his potential nomination and/or presidency mean for the financial markets, in particular, gold.

The clearest answer yet is: We dont know. Love him or hate him, Trump has supported the positions of both the Republican and the Democratic parties over the decades. And what that boils down to for 2016 and beyond is uncertainty, which almost always is good for gold.

Moreover, if the GOP self-destructs because of its leaderships rejection of Trumps candidacy, or if Trump soldiers on as a third-party trailblazer, that implosion and resulting turmoil also could help bullion prices.

Uncertainty not yet priced in: Commenting on the outsider candidacies of Trump and his Democratic counterpart, Bernie Sanders, top Allianz adviser and former Pimco boss Mohamed El-Erian noted that the emergence of these nontraditional parties, the anti-establishment parties, adds to uncertainty. Markets in the U.S. havent priced that yet; it is a new phenomenon. It hasnt been priced in yet, but I think that there is an uncertainty premium that is going to come from the political side.

Trumps critics despise his bombastic, antagonistic approach, and the idea that his finger will be on the nuclear button as the U.S. confronts threats ranging from Russia to ISIS is making many people frightened, justified or not.

The Wall Street Journals MoneyBeat blog also weighed in on the issue in a post titled Trumps ascendance could be good for gold. The post cited the possibility that that nervous investors could pile in to gold and other safe-haven assets as an insurance policy.

J.P. Morgan Asset Managements James Sutton explained, If theres any uncertainty regarding the U.S. election and the potential for a slightly off-center candidate, whether that be Sanders or Trump winning the election, then I can see a scenario where thats bad for the dollar.

Critics say Trump will run up the debt: Financial journalist Brett Arends, who works for The Wall Street Journal as well, also said Trumps rise could boost the yellow metal, thanks to the billionaires vow to engage in trade wars with China and other nations, as well as a spending plan that reportedly will add trillions to the budget deficit.

Arends cites a study by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, which projected that his proposed tax breaks, unless accompanied by very large spending cuts could increase the national debt by nearly 80% of gross domestic product by 2036.

A similar analysis by The Tax Foundation concluded that Trumps tax plan would greatly increase the U.S. economys size in the long run while also boosting the governments deficit by $10 trillion over a decade.

As a result, of this anticipated red ink Arends concludes: Trumps stated policies point toward massive deficits, more U.S. unilateralism, policy uncertainty, and global trade and currency wars. His (Super Tuesday) victory last night ought logically to be bearish for stocks and bonds, and bullish for bullion. We shall see.

Tax reforms could boost U.S. businesses: Other experts, such as Commerzbank, say Trumps candidacy will be a nonissue for gold, giving more importance to movements in bullion-linked ETFs and the federal funds rate.

Still others predict that business could potentially boom under Trump. Stocks will go straight up, OLeary Financial Group Chairman Kevin OLeary told CNBC.

OLeary thinks that Trump will ride a wave of populist anger against the government into the White House and that his proposed reforms of the tax code will give U.S. businesses the edge they have been lacking for quite some time.

However, OLeary argues that once in office, Trump will find that cooler heads will prevail and rein in some of his more controversial plans, such as building a wall along Mexicos border.

Stocks tend to fall in election years: Once again, we dont know whats Trumps possible election will do to markets, but history shows that presidential turnovers can affect financial markets. In the election year itself, the market tends to fall, especially in the final year of a presidents second term, noted Trevir Nath.

Hiccups in equities also can occur later. Economist Yale Hirschs presidential election cycle theory has found that U.S. stock markets are weakest in the year following the election of a new U.S. president.

The jury is still out on the nuts and bolts of Trumps policies, but his unpredictable, anti-establishment candidacy is making many people nervous. Thats good for gold. Likewise, the potential election of Democrats big-government candidate, Hillary Clinton, also could benefit precious metals. The true conservative investing approach amid this election-year uncertainty is to prepare for any contingency and remain prudently invested in both bullion and rare coins.