Another down day for oil and stocks, another up day for gold and silver prices.

Gold rebounded from Mondays 2% dip after Saudi Arabias oil minister ruled out any imminent production cuts, slamming oil prices by almost 5%. The announcement also was a drag on stocks, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indexes all down more than 1% each in Tuesday afternoon trading.

The ongoing catastrophe in the oil sector has caused JPMorgan Chase to set aside another $600 million to guard against losses from its loans to energy extractors and producers. It also warned that its prepared to reserve as much as $1.5 billion in buffer cash if oil prices remain around $25 a barrel.

Golden cross portends 2.8% gain: Gold responded as the go-to safe-haven play of the day, advancing by more than 1% to trade near $1,225 by the afternoon. Silver also gained about 0.6% to hit $15.25.

As long as gold can hold above the key $1,200 level, its bullish momentum is intact. In fact, on Friday, the yellow metal formed an ultra-positive technical indicator called the golden cross, in which its 50-day moving average closed above its 100-day moving average.

Thats seen as bullish by some traders and analysts who look to chart patterns for price direction, Bloomberg reported. Its only happenedwhen both measures were trending higher 10 times since the turn of the century, with prices rallying an average of 2.8% in the subsequent 90 days.

Fed rate-hike pace hits roadblock: The rising probability that the Fed will keep interest rates lower for longer, even despite last Fridays uptick in the Consumer Price Index inflation gauge, is supporting gold.

Were positioned for a bull market in gold, said Jeff Sica of Circle Squared Alternative Investments. With the amount of volatility in the market, theres going to be continued strength in gold. Its obvious that even if the interest rates do move, theyre not going to move up quickly, and theres greater likelihood that they may even stay the same or decline.

The biggest story has been the strength in gold around this, more than anything else, added Rob Haworth of U.S. Bank Wealth Management. While its been haven flows, its also been retail investors looking for anything moving higher because its been a struggle last year to be an owner of stocks or any other risky assets.

U.S. manufacturing remains mired: Meanwhile, ahead of Fridays U.S. GDP report, new economic data confirm the growing pessimism over the American financial outlook.

The Conference Boards consumer confidence gauge fell to its weakest level since July 2015. Meanwhile, the Richmond Federal Reserves manufacturing survey dropped to three-year lows, and the Case-Shiller home-price index missed expectations.

About the only bright spot was in existing-home sales, which unexpectedly rose in January. But even that news was tempered by a warning from the National Association of Realtors that home prices are still rising too fast because of ongoing supply constraints.

Many risks remain, bank says: All these drags on the U.S. economy suggest that any short-term gains in stock prices are reason to cash out and redeploy capital into precious metals. The Geneva Swiss Bank is one firm doing just that.

In declaring the recent stock rebound a dead-cat bounce, the bank likened the currency landscape to February 2008 and wrote, We believe that this was just a bear-market rally driven essentially by hedge funds covering their shorts. Many risks including China/CNY, oil supply, U.S. economy, German economy/social situation, BREXIT, earnings growth, high valuations, still remain in mind. Investors are losing confidence in central banks hazardous monetary policies and buying gold as the ultimate hedge.

The key cog missing from gold investment during the past few lean years is now returning with bang: ETF inflows.

Gold ETFs (also called ETPs) are no substitute for a long-term core holding of physical bullion, but watching the performance of these investment products can tell us a lot about current sentiment toward the yellow metal.

Why? Because gold tends to attract interest when stocks are falling, and conversely, when equities are rising, bullion tends to suffer. As stocks ascended to new all-time nominal highs on the back of the Federal Reserves quantitative-easing and zero-interest-rate policies, interest in gold lagged.

$1,400 price target quite imaginable: Now, though, the rush into gold in 2016 is gathering pace as investors seeking a haven boosted holdings to the highest level since March, Bloomberg reported.

This past Friday, gold ETF products saw inflows of 25.39 metric tons, or a 1.6% surge, bringing total holdings to 1,640.81 tons. In percentage terms, thats the biggest one-day influx since May 2010, the news agency reported.

The sharp rise in the gold price this year is only the beginning of the whole drama, Wing Fung Financial Group researcher Mark To noted, arguing that a price target of $1,300 to $1,400 is quite imaginable in the coming months.

Europeans, Chinese turning to gold: Meanwhile, Barrons also commented on the rush into ETFs in a Feb. 20 article. Today, investors around the world are panning for gold via exchange-traded funds, and the growing availability and popularity of ETFs that own the actual metal for European and Chinese investors will help keep golds luster, Chris Dieterich wrote.

Now, some $2.5 billion has roared into the SPDR Gold Shares in 2016, while the iShares Gold Trust ETF has taken in another $1 billion. The end result has been that inflows into bullion-backed ETPs this year have also topped outflows in all of 2015, confirmed U.S. Global Investors chief Frank Holmes.

Moreover, the global complexion of gold ETF owners has changed in recent years, Dieterich added, with European and Chinese ETFs now accounting for a sizable portion of market share. It could be the flood of overseas ETF buyers helps buoy the current rally.

Asian consumption of gold has been firmly established. The resurgence of physical gold and silver buying is on the upswing, as evidenced by U.S. Mint coin sales. And now it looks like the momentum-chasing stock investors are losing faith in equities and seeking safety in precious metals. Interest from mainstream, primarily Western, stock investors has been whats missing in the gold market since the price peaked in 2011. Now the tide appears to be turning in a bullish way.

Note: Although gold ETFs are a convenient way to invest in the metal, they arent necessarily the best way to do so. An investors core stake in gold should always be in physical bullion bars and coins. For more on the difference between gold bullion and gold ETFs, click here.

On Friday the U.S. Commerce Department will issue its GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015. Analysts are predicting that the growth rate will come in at 0.4%, down from a preliminary estimate of 0.7% reported in January.

Arguing that U.S. growth is picking up in 2016, optimists point to the Atlanta Federal Reserves GDPNow forecasting tool, which as of Feb. 17 pegs 1Q growth at 2.6%.

But anecdotally, todays economic landscape feels like a recession to many, including billionaire investor Sam Zell, who told Fox Business last week:

The current environment either suggests that were already in a recession or that were rapidly moving toward moving into recession. World trade has slowed down; the currency issues continue to be all over the place: China going one way, Japan and the euro going the other way. And the uncertainties of this election year contribute to this, so when I look at the prospects, I keep looking all over the world and all over the United States for demand, and the demand is pretty weak. And ultimately recessions reflect falling demand.

4 or more states already on the skids: Bloomberg news also weighed in on the issue, noting that even if the national growth numbers havent yet fallen into contraction territory, pockets of the country already are suffering, particularly those states with oil-driven economies. It cited a Moodys Analytics report that four states Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming are in a recession, while Louisiana, New Mexico, and Oklahoma are all at risk.

One Bloomberg survey of economists put the odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 20%, the highest level since February 2013.

Whereas some experts see bright spots in the housing and service sectors, most analysts agree that the U.S. manufacturing base is in definite recession, thanks in part to the strength of the dollar. The latest PMI report from Markit Economics confirmed that fear.

On the heels of weakness in the rest of the world’s PMIs, U.S. manufacturing just printed 51.0 (missing expectations of 52.4) to fall to its lowest level since October 2012, Zero Hedge reported.

Worst conditions in 3 years: U.S. factories are reporting the worst business conditions for over three years, Markit noted. Every indicator from the flash PMI survey, from output, order books and exports to employment, inventories and prices, is flashing a warning light about the health of the manufacturing economy.

Output and order books are growing at one of their slowest rates since late-2012, with exports falling amid weakened global demand and the strong dollar.Hiring has weakened as a result. With backlogs of work slumping to the greatest extent since the height of the recession in 2009 and inventories rising for the third successive month, its likely that firms will come under increasing pressure to cut payroll numbers and production in coming months unless demand revives.

Consumer is last bulwark left: CNBC just reported two other signs of a looming recession: Income-tax withholdings and corporate profits are both shrinking.

With manufacturing in an inexorable decline, the only support left for the U.S. economy is the American consumer. If the consumer were to falter for any reason, that would be a big problem, warned Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

The implications of a U.S. recession are huge for gold. With the Federal Reserve having announced the potential for four interest-rate hikes this year after initiating one in December, a slowdown here could force a major policy reversal. That tacit admission of a Fed error could send gold skyrocketing.

Negative rates could juice gold further: Moreover, the Fed is pretty much out of monetary-policy bullets, with rates already near zero. Whats left? More quantitative easing, of course, the same debt-monetization scheme that helped send gold to all-time nominal highs in 2011. And then theres the new policy tool seemingly on everybodys lips: negative interest rates.

Negative rates are a death blow to savers, who see their bank deposits hit with storage fees. As contrarian economist Marc Faber so eloquently described the quandary of negative rates: Leave a million dollars with a bank, and in a year you get only something like $990,000 back. I would rather want to own some solid currency, in other words gold.

Just when some analysts were calling an end to golds resurgence, the yellow metal reversed and moved sharply higher Thursday as stocks stumbled and two major agencies warned that the global economy is on the skids.

A grim earnings forecast from Walmart and another negative Philly Fed manufacturing survey rained on the Dows parade Thursday, while the Conference Boards Leading Economic Index also declined.

Overwhelmingly bullish sentiment: Golds inverse relationship with the stock market continued to prove its mettle, with the bullion price rising 2% and topping $1,234 by afternoon after earlier struggling to hold the $1,200 level. Silver also gained, up 1.3% near $15.48.

The equities pulled back. Gold popped, RJO Futures strategist Bob Haberkorn told Reuters. While equities are starting to come back and oils shown a little bit of life, gold is strengthening as the day goes on. The sentiment in gold right now is overwhelmingly bullish.

That turning point midday, you had stocks sell off a little bit. Now gold has turned up pretty meaningfully, added Rob Haworth of U.S. Bank Wealth Management. Golds working as a safe-haven trade right now in this era of negative interest rates in Europe, Japan, Sweden, and Denmark.

Moodys issues bearish outlook: A new report from Moodys also served as a buzz kill for stock investors. Its 2016-17 Global Macro Outlook report warned that risks to global growth have increased since November and world leaders have little left in their fiscal and monetary arsenals to mitigate the threat, CNBC reported.

The ratings agency said that growth prospects were being hammered by Chinas slowdown, a slump in commodity prices and tighter financing conditions in some emerging markets.

This pain would outweigh factors helpful to growth, such as the loose monetary policy in Europe, Japan and the U.S.

U.S. faces headwinds, says OECD: Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development issued its own warning and cut its global growth forecasts, from 3.3% to 3%. It said the U.S. is facing an intensification of headwinds, including the drag on exports from the stronger dollar and energy sector investment from low oil prices.

Financial stability risks are substantial, the OECD said. Some emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to sharp exchange-rate movements and the effects of high domestic debt.

Its solution? More spending! A stronger collective policy response is needed to strengthen demand, the OECD said. Monetary policy cannot work alone. Fiscal policy is now contractionary in many major economies. Structural reform momentum has slowed. All three levers must be deployed more actively to create stronger and sustained growth.

More hikes unwise, Fed exec says: The chief of the worlds biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, also told clients to prepare for lower than normal returns with greater than normal risk. Central banks will be forced to increasingly ease through negative interest rates and quantitative easing, Dalio predicted, but said these tools are losing their potency.

A top Federal Reserve official pretty much underscored Dalios message Wednesday night. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said it would be unwise to continue a normalization strategy in an environment of declining market-based inflation expectations. He also implied that more QE and even negative interest rates could be on the table.

No wonder gold is on the move higher again. With major economic agencies forecasting slowing growth ahead, central bankers who recently were talking up higher interest rates are now on the verge of reversing course once again, and thats bullish for the yellow metal.

Love him or hate him, CNBC Mad Money star Jim Cramer recently delivered a masterful explication of the current bullish case for gold.

The case he outlines comes mainly from an associate of his, technical analyst Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading.

Although some of Cramers critics say his endorsement of the yellow metal is a contrarian signal that gold is back on its way down, the former Goldman Sachs trader and hedge-fund manager has always been consistent in his stance: that investors should have modest exposure to gold but not bet the farm on it to hedge against economic chaos and downturns in the stock market.

Golds mojo is back: Ive always been a big believer in the idea that you should always own at least a little gold, he said, whether that be in the form of physical bullion, ETFs, or dependable mining shares. Now, after spending 4 years in the wilderness, gold is starting to look like its gotten a little bit of its energy back.

Examining recent regulatory filings in the futures markets, Cramer notes increasing optimism in gold among large fund managers, but nothing outside of historical norms. Therefore, if the big boys want to bet on gold, they still got plenty of money left on the sidelines, which means theres a ton of firepower to send the precious metal higher still.

Positive fundamentals return: Cramer then goes on to review how changes in central-bank rate policies are now in golds favor. The fundamentals have absolutely gotten more positive for gold in recent months, he said, thanks largely to Japans recent push into negative interest rates. You actually lose money by letting your cash sit in a bank vault overnight, he said, and that environment helps make gold a more attractive investment. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Fed seems to be backing off its plan to hike rates four times this year. We might only get a single rate hike this year, he said.

The path of least resistance is now higher, Cramer continued, but that doesnt mean its going to happen overnight. With the gold-buying frenzy of the Chinese New Year holiday over, bullion is facing seasonal headwinds, and the roughly $200 parabolic move its made so far this year is unsustainable without a cool-off period. The gold market will need time to digest these gains, he said.

Therefore, gold is going higher, but it might need to go a bit lower first before this newfound rally can really get into gear, Cramer said in summarizing Garners forecast. Golds headed higher longer-term but right now its very overbought. Parabolic moves tend to correct, and they correct large.

However, for longer-term investors, gold could make its way back up to $1,500 even if it encounters some resistance en route, Cramer said. He said the metal could fall back to lower levels near $1,050, but its moves Thursday suggest that the upward path has been resumed.

Gold has finally woken up from its multiyear slumber, and the precious metal is poised to give you a powerful long-term move higher, he concluded, with the caveat to expect some selling and profit taking before the big move higher continues.

After last weeks meteoric rocket launch above $1,260, gold prices not unexpectedly pulled back this week as traders took profits. However, after dipping below $1,200, the yellow metal firmed once again Wednesday as the Federal Reserves latest minutes reflected a cautious outlook.

Rebounding from a three-day slide, gold topped $1,210 and was trading near $1,210 after the Fed released its minutes. Silver also rose about 0.5% and was at $15.30 in afternoon trading.

Potential drag on U.S. economy: Citing a greater-than-expected slowdown in China, the minutes to the Feds Jan. 26-27 meeting showed growing concerns about the global economic picture. Participants judged that the overall implications of these developments for the outlook for domestic economic activity was unclear, but they agreed that uncertainty had increased, the minutes read. Many saw these developments as increasing the downside risks to the outlook with a potential drag on the U.S. economy.

The Fed continued to stress that their interest-rate policy is not set in stone but remains data-dependent. While participants continued to expect that gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate, they emphasized that the timing and pace of adjustments will depend on future economic and financial-market developments and their implications for the medium-term economic outlook, the minutes said.

The Fed even broached the idea of delaying its plan for four rate hikes this year, as bankers discussed altering their earlier views of the appropriate path for the target range for the federal funds rate.

Bank says slow rate path to support gold: The gist of the minutes are that rate hikes are increasingly off the table. And that easy-money likelihood is one reason by the Singapore bank DBS Group Holdings Ltd. is maintaining an overweight outlook on gold.

Volatility in financial markets due to the Chinese/global slowdown and low oil prices and doubts regarding the effectiveness of monetary easing could continue, said DBS strategist Manish Jaradi. This could keep risk appetite in check and U.S. dollar rates low, supporting gold.

The sharp scaleback in U.S. Fed rate hike expectations and negative rates elsewhere suggests a low for longer theme is back in focus, Jaradi wrote. With inflation expectations stable in the U.S., declining real yields could aid gold. Having said that, gold looks overbought in the near term.

Gold proves value as haven: Despite Chinas extreme debt and banking problems, a more optimistic mood took hold among equities this week, thus dampening golds fire. And that makes sense, because gold has been surging as stocks have tumbled this year.

Gold reaffirmed its appeal as a haven, with the metals inverse relationship to global stocks the strongest in more than four years, Bloomberg noted. Its correlation to the MSCI All World Country Index over 30 days registered -0.487, the largest negative reading since 2011. A measure of -1 indicates the two values move in opposition to each other all the time.

The S&P 500 and other indexes rose Wednesday despite a host of recession-suggestive data on the U.S. economy, including a drop in housing starts and permits, a third consecutive monthly decline in industrial production, a spike in core PPI inflation, continued danger signs in the gold-oil price ratio, a plunge in homebuilder confidence, growing debt woes for oil producers, and the seventh straight decline in the Empire Feds manufacturing gauge.

Given the above avalanche of negative U.S. economic data, which is just a tip of the iceberg, investors have to ask themselves: Is the worst really over for the global economy and stocks in particular? Any objective interpretation of the financial landscape should produce the answer no. In that case, golds run isnt over, and investors should be fortifying positions in safe-haven assets while prices are still relatively low compared with their upside potential.

The World Gold Councils latest report shows that the momentum gold has shown so far in first-quarter 2016 had been building since at least the fourth quarter of 2015.

Were not here to argue whether the WGC has accurately accounted for the totality of gold consumption around the world. Some respected experts, for instance, say the WGC has been underestimating the extent of true demand in China which they say actually could exceed WGC estimates.

But what the latest Gold Demand Trends report does confirm is that gold demand is healthy and rising. Gold demand in the fourth quarter increased 4% year-on-year to a 10-quarter high of 1,117.7t. Full-year demand was virtually unchanged, down just a fraction (-14t) to 4,212t. Weakness in the first half of the year was cancelled out by strength in the second half.

That late-year surge is consumption is attributed to two major drivers: investment demand and central-bank buying.

Investment demand surged 15% in 4Q: Overall investment demand in 2015 grew by 8% versus 2014 totals. Bar and coin consumption rose modestly, while outflows from gold ETFs slowed. Golds momentum clearly started to build in the fourth quarter, which saw investment demand grow by 15% versus the same period in 2014.

Meanwhile, central-bank purchases remain a huge support for gold prices as these entities buy bullion to hedge against the currency wars and devaluations running rampant in Europe, Japan, and elsewhere.

Net purchases by central banks and official institutions surged in the second half of 2015 resulting in the second highest annual demand in our records, the WGC reported.

Central banks net purchases ended the year strongly at 167.2t in Q4, up 25% from 133.9t in the same period of 2014. This brought net purchases for 2015 to an impressive588.4t, 1% higher than 2014s chunky total of 583.9t. The annual total was significantly higher than our initial expected range of 400-500t, and comfortably towards the top end of our revised expectation of 500-600t. This shows that the pivotal change in 2010 from net sellers to net purchases has staying power.

Mine production slipping: Russia and China led the charge in acquiring gold on a bulk scale. And while demand from official sectors remained high, supply is shrinking, falling by 4% in 2015, its lowest level since 2009.

Mine production in 2015 saw its first quarterly decline and its slowest annual growth rate since 2008, the WGC noted. Annual gold recycling dropped again, hitting its lowest level since 2007. With mine production expected to fall in the next year, supply will remain constrained.

Looking back at the final quarter of 2015, one can more readily understand from these supply-and-demand trends why gold has taken off in early 2016. Add to the picture the global decline of stocks into bear territory, Chinas deepening economic slowdown, and plummeting oil prices as both a cause and symptom of the current bleak financial landscape and its logical to project that the WGCs assessment of first-quarter 2016 gold demand will be even more markedly bullish.