Gold got a little overheated during last weeks monster run above $1,260, so the price decline Monday to around $1,209 was unsurprising as shorter-term traders booked profits and Chinas Lunar New Year buying peaked.

Gold does not have to zoom to $1400/oz in the next few months to validate the new bull market, observed Jordan Roy-Byrne of The Daily Gold. Its more important that it holds above $1200/oz in the weeks ahead.

And so far its doing that. In any other currency than the U.S. dollar, its already in a bull market, noted Robin Griffiths of The ECU Group, predicting a run back to $1,300.

Banks new target is $1,250: Golds lightning-fast resurgence has now forced another big bank to upwardly revise its forecast. Gold has once again become the main risk barometer for global markets, Saxo Bank commodities strategist Ole Hansen said. Traders were caught completely unprepared as the focus at the beginning of the year was on the speed and size of U.S. rate hikes. Due to this, funds were underinvested and as the sentiment changed they were left scrambling to get out of short and back into new long positions.

As a result, we maintain our bullish view on gold, he added.I see gold spending the coming weeks in a range around $1,200/oz as weak longs create downside pressure, which in turn will be met by buying from those missing the initial rally. Thus, Saxo has now raised its year-end target from $1,200 to $1,250.

3 reasons to choose gold: Here are three more reasons why investors should take advantage of Monday price dip:

1. Recession dangers rising: Despite Mondays strong stock performance, recessionary winds are still blowing hard. Japans economy contracted by 1.4% in the fourth quarter, and Chinas latest falling import-export volumes also confirmed the ongoing slowdown. Banker William White of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, who predicted the 2008 crisis, is repeating warning that things are headed south again. At each stage whats been happening is the imbalances in the global economy have been getting worse and worse, he said.

   And the U.S. wont be immune to these deflationary forces, according to Cornerstone Macro technical analyst Carter Worth, who is seeing high recession odds.

   History tells us that when certain asset classes are acting a certain way, specifically right now gold, utilities, Treasury bonds and spreads and theyre happening after great periods of advanced restraint, theres something there, Worth told CNBC. This is not a good setup. Its very hard to reverse it.

2. Desperate central banks mull negative rates: Deutsche Bank, whose financial stability in recent months has been called into question, has issued its own warning about stocks, saying the bear market will continue unless the Federal Reserve takes action. Without policy intervention, there is more downside risk for equities, the bank said in a note titled The smell of default on Monday. We will likely need to see a Fed relent (on raising interest rates), leading to a sustainable drop in the dollar, higher oil prices and reduced energy balance sheet stress.

   Other major central banks are already throwing in the towel. Japan imposed negative interest rates in January, and European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi declared Monday that his bank will not hesitate to act at its March meeting.

   Despite 637 interest-rate cuts since Bear Stearns imploded in March 2008 and $12.3 trillion in quantitative easing globally, central banks have very little to show for their easy-money policies. Growth is anemic at best, and the world seemingly is falling into another economic abyss.

   As a result, forget about the highly anticipated tightening cycle expected from some major central banks, including the Fed. The worlds most powerful central banks will be forced to tear up their plans following the carnage that has engulfed financial markets since the beginning of the year, Londons Telegraph reported. Investors now believe there will not be a single interest rate rise from any of the G7 group of central banks this year, while the number of expected rate cuts this year has increased from zero to six, it added, citing a Danske Bank analysis.

   Whats left now for central banks to do but impose negative interest rates? Negative interest rates may herald new danger for financial markets, a separate Telegraph analysis read. However, they could just be the catalyst to jolt politicians and governments into finally making use of their massive fiscal policy tools to rescue the world from the grips of another slump.

   What are negative rates? Negative interest rates are simple to explain: People put their money into a bank or U.S. government securities and instead of getting interest on that deposit, they have to pay a fee for the privilege, wrote John Crudele of The New York Post. However, if the Fed decides to go the way of Japan and some European countries in charging savers for the safekeeping of their money, expect massive backlash.

   Not only a backlash against the Fed, but a major flight into cash and other hard assets considered safe, such as gold and silver bullion plus rare coins.

   The Fed so far is sticking to its rate-hike guns while only dancing around the notion of negative rates, but probably not for long. Part of the problem is that it is consistently wrong, said Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon. The Fed doesnt seem to recognize how terrible their forecasts have been.

3. Syrian conflict could widen into all-out war: You likely havent been hearing much about it in the mainstream news, but the Syrian conflict has the potential to escalate into a massive outbreak of hostilities. Russias prime minister last week warned Saudi Arabia and Turkey against sending troops and/or arms into Syria.

   All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table instead of unleashing yet another war on Earth, Dmitry Medvedev told a German newspaper. Any kinds of land operations, as a rule, lead to a permanent war.

   The Americans and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war? Do they think they can really quickly win it? It is impossible, especially in the Arab world. Everyone is fighting against everyone there.

   For more on a massive military exercise getting under way in northern Saudi Arabia and involving not only Saudi troops but also those from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia, and other, see this post from The Economic Collapse blog.

   Needless to say, the outbreak of wider war wont be good for business as usual, and thats yet another reason to hedge against the unexpected with gold. As former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan has noted, gold is a go-to currency during wartime: Gold, and to a lesser extent silver, are the only major currencies that dont require a third-party credit guarantee. Gold is inbred in human nature. Gold is special. For more than two millennia, gold has had virtually unquestioned acceptance as payment to discharge an obligation. Remember, Germany could not import any goods in the last part of World War II unless it paid in gold.

Recession, money printing, and the potential for a widespread explosion in the Middle East between superpowers and their proxies: The reasons to hold gold have not loomed this large in a long time, and thats why the recent price pullback near $1,209 could be a major buying opportunity for longer-term investors.

Theyre tiny coins worth big money. Thats what the first sale of Tom Reynolds collection of large cents proved Jan. 31 when 332 cents (plus two limited-edition catalogs) brought in almost $6.5 million. Thats a rough average of about $19,000 per coin. The value of the entire collection is estimated at more than $10 million altogether.

Reynolds began collecting coins in the 1950s and became more serious in later decades, specializing in copper coins. His career in the insurance industry eventually gave way to full-time pursuit of his investments of passion: numismatic coins. He decided to sell the collection before his death rather than leave the task to his heirs.

The Jan. 31 sale included Flowing Hair cents, Draped Bust cents, Classic Head cents, and Liberty Cap cents. Several of his top coins broke the six-figure barrier. Here are some of the standout specimens, each carrying an added 17.5% buyers fee:

A 1793 Flowing Hair Wreath cent, an S-9 Vine and Bars Edge certified at MS65+ Brown PCGS with CAC sticker, commanded $193,875.

A 1793 Flowing Hair Chain cent (Sheldon 2 variety), graded as AU53 PCGS with CAC sticker, brought in $141,000.

A 1793 Wreath cent, S-10 R4, Vine and Bars Edge, graded at MS64 Brown plus CAC sticker, won a bid of $92,500.

An 1809 Classic Head cent, S-280 R2 Large 9 over Small 9, graded by PCGS as MS64 Brown with CAC sticker, topped its category with a winning bid of $110,000.

A 1795 Liberty Cap cent, S-76b R1 Plain Edge, certified MS66 BR by PCGS with CAC sticker, drew a winning bid of $67,500.

An 1801 Draped Bust cent, certified as MS64 Red Brown by PCGS, snagged a winning bid of $97,500.

A 1798 Draped Bust cent, S-155 R3 Style I Hair, Small 8, Reverse of 1795, graded by PCGS at MS65 Brown, also snagged a bid of $97,500.

The third sale of the legendary D. Brent Pogue Collection of rare coins occurred Feb. 9, and while no individual specimen realized a price at or above the $1 million mark, a few came close.

The sale consisted of pre-1800 half cents, 1793 large cents, Capped Bust dimes, Capped Bust half dollars from 1823 to 1836, $3 gold pieces, and gold half eagles from 1807 to 1820.

Of the 158 coins in the sale, 43 topped the six-figure level, ranging in prices from $105,750 to $998,750. Twenty broke into the $100,000 ara; 13 finished in the $200,000 range; two reached the $300,000 level; four entered the $400,000 range; one topped the $700,000 barrier; one touched the $800,000 peak; while two broke into the $900,000 range. The two cheapest coins sold for $8,812.50 each.

Which rarities were the biggest breadwinners? The heavyweight, bringing in $998,750, was the Garrett-Pogue 1793 Chain Cent, one of finest known and certified at MS65 Red Brown by PCGS.

Following in second place and commanding $940,000 was a 1794 Half Cent, discovered only about 40 years ago and certified at MS67 Red Brown by PCGS.

Next, an 1815 Half Eagle, graded at MS65 by PCGS and one of only six in private hands, brought in $822,500.

And realizing a price of $763,750 was a 1796 No Pole Half Cent, certified at MS67 Red Brown by PCGS. This coin was once in the famed Eliasberg Collection and was the first example of its denomination to sell for more than a half-million dollars.

The strong prices achieved suggest once again that big-name numismatic coins with superlative rarity, condition, and provenance can be counted upon to attract impressive bids even as the overall financial backdrop, from stocks to commodities, increasingly resembles a global recession.

With gold carrying out a major move to one-year highs above $1,260 Thursday as fear gripped global markets, some high-profile investors are coming out of the woodwork to endorse bullion, including billionaire Mark Cuban, the owner of the Dallas Mavericks.

When traders dont know what to do, they go where everybody is, and I thought that was a good chance that would be gold, Cuban told CNBC.

Some top technicians and executives from major investment banks also have been forced to acknowledge bullions rekindled bull-market power.

And why wouldnt they? With even Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen admitting that the central bank is considering the prospect of negative interest rates in the U.S., the case for safe-haven hard assets is the strongest its been since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

BofA targeting $1,315+: Just days after one of its most high-profile metals analysts set a now-timid-looking year-end target of $1,250 for gold, Bank of America technical strategist Paul Ciana has issued this note indicating hes staying long gold:

Gold prices are breaking above triple resistance forming a technical bottom and channel breakout. This projects gold higher to 1,315 and 1,375. The gap in the distribution on the left shows 1,550 is a possibility, though we are not making that our target at this point. We remain long gold on a technical basis.

JPMorgan sees more faith in gold than paper: Meanwhile, following up on recent bullish comments from a JPMorgan colleague that the case for gold has improved significantly, Bob Michele also chimed in on CNBC.

The global chief investment official and head of JPMorgans fixed-income, currency, and commodities group made this stunning observation: Gold at $1,200 an ounce, what does that tell you? It tells you that in a flight to quality, in a safe haven, people have more confidence in gold than in bank deposits or paper money. I think things have gotten out of control.

Goldman says much higher than $1,200: Even Goldman Sachs, which has been notably bearish on bullion for quite a while, issued this head-turning reversal via a technical note:

From a wave count perspective, the market is likely in the initial stages of a counter-trend ABC correction which could eventually retrace ~38.2% of the 5-waves from 11 to 1,381. From a pure techs perspective, breaking from a declining wedge wouldinitiate a medium-term target back at the start of the pattern ~1,392.

Bottom line, although 1,200-1,202 might hold in the near-term, theres scope to extend much higher over time.

Lines around the block in London: And it seems that an increasing number of the general public and retail investors arent waiting for stocks to turn around. Londons Telegraph newspaper is reporting that gold buyers are queuing round the block there. One major dealer said that the bullion market has been building with interest since the end of last year but this morning things have gone bananas. Some bankers in London are placing unusually large orders for physical gold.”

Recall the lesson that many investors learned during the 2008 financial crisis: Just as in 2008, if todays stock-market collapse continues, you likely will have a very short window in which to buy bullion assets at reasonable market prices. After that window closes, it will become much more expensive and difficult to help you safeguard your assets with gold.

Gold kicked off Monday with a massive run toward the $1,200 level, hitting eight-month highs as the U.S. stock market lost more ground in early trading. Lunar New Year celebrations in China and much of the rest of Asia no doubt also helped drive the price higher.

After a 5% gain last week, the yellow metal jumped about 2.3% to hit $1,200, its highest level since June and biggest one-day gain in two months. Its now up more than 12% for the year. Silver followed golds lead, reclaiming its bullish 200-day moving average and hitting $15.43, its highest price since Nov. 3. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones was down more than 350 points early on.

Compelling reasons to own gold: Golds momentum seems so strong at the moment that Bank of America Merrill Lynchs year-end forecast might be at risk of erring on the cautious side. Where does BoAML see the prices headed? About $1,250, strategist Michael Widmer told CNBC, citing low oil prices, a weakening dollar, and rising market volatility. Weve said that for quite awhile, actually, so for us, this was always the year that gold would bottom. What the gold market is reassessing at the moment is whether the overall global growth picture is lower, potential GDP growth pretty much everywhere has started to change, and whether that makes a more compelling case to actually own gold. Its not a massive bull market, but its a bottoming out. It is quite a change in a market that has actually been in a protracted bear market for years now.

Another major firm, Julius Baer, has also canceled its negative outlook for gold. Due to prevailing risk aversion in financial markets and mounting global growth risks, a bearish outlook on gold is not warranted anymore, analyst Carsten Menke said Monday. We have turned neutral and believe that investors should use gold as insurance in their portfolios.

CEO sees even recession odds: Although rising gold prices are often associated with rising inflation, bullion also can gain in periods of deflation. The gold trade is signaling a retreat in global inflation, Janney Montgomery Scott strategist Mark Luschini told CNBC. In times of economic stress … gold acts as a store of value.

Not only is growth slowing across the world, but the U.S. economy also seems to be losing steam, as evidenced by Fridays employment report, which saw the creation of just 151,000 jobs in January. One model from JPMorgan sees the risk of recession in the U.S. rising.

Were in a very confused state as far as understanding the global economy with very mixed messages coming from different sectors around the world, RandGold Resources CEO Mark Bristow said. Its an interesting time and thats always good for gold when people are unsure about the future. Bristow himself is predicting an even chance of recession. The whole world is in a situation where 2016 is going to be a year of wealth preservation rather than creation.

Fed could be forced to reverse: With Treasury yields continuing to sink amid uncertainty, all eyes are awaiting Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellens scheduled testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday for clues on whether the central bank will slow or back off its rate-hiking policy begun in December. A policy reversal would be an acknowledgment of growing concerns about the global economy.

We see the gold price as being highly correlated with real yields, and so ultimately for gold to continue to rally we need to see a change in course for Fed policy this year, Johanna Kyrklund of Schroders told CNBC. But if they do that, it will probably be a very negative environment for growth and for markets, and so I think gold for that reason is attracting interest as a hedge in peoples portfolios, and I think thats whats pushing up the price.

The struggling stock market, combined with Chinas economic problems and the collapsing oil market, are becoming too large for the Fed to ignore. Yellen and her crew might still have their heads in the sand when it comes to the problems the world is facing, but the rising price of gold is telling us that everyone else seems to be waking up to this stark new reality.

By Douglas LePre, Senior Portfolio Manager at Blanchard and Company

Oh, youre a coin dealer? What should I collect?

This is a question that people have been asking me throughout my career, so I thought with a new year upon us I would try to offer some suggestions as 2016 gets moving. The coin-collecting hobby has been in the news a lot of late with many historic collections hitting the market in the past year, and Blanchard and Company expects new collectors to emerge as a result.

As you may know from my previously published articles, I am a huge proponent of buying the highest degree of rarity that a collector can afford. When building a set or collection the first thing any collector should consider is what mint, region or coin series appeals to them the most? This will vary from person to person, but its important to collect what sings to you!

Throughout my career I have found that everyone has a coin story either a silver coin was found in change or a relative had passed a coin down that had been in their family for many years prior. There are literally thousands of different scenarios, all of which are great motivators for people new to the hobby to start buying coins in a specific series or from a specific mint.

For those readers without a story or natural entry point into collecting other than a desire to learn more, lets look at some areas that make the most sense for starting a new collection. Now, there are a few questions that any new collector should ask before buying anything. All good sets or collections start with a specific direction in mind.

Please note: All coins referred to below should be dated prior to 1900.

1. Do I want to build a high grade set or a mid-grade set?

Generally speaking, the answer to this question is going to help direct you toward a specific portion of the market.

What I mean is, if you want to build a high-grade set, you will have to direct your efforts to an area of the market where you will find many coins in high grade to pick from. Otherwise you could run into a roadblock when it comes to your average cost per coin. Typically you will find a nice selection of high-grade examples when looking at the smaller-denomination coins such as cents, three-cent silver pieces, nickels, and dimes from any series. The reason for a larger selection of high-grade examples is the fact that all of the denominations of coins mentioned were generally produced in very large quantities due to their being fractional currency, and they are smaller and lighter than quarters, half dollars and dollars, and therefore they tend to not suffer the damage that larger coins endure during the minting process. The heavier the coin, the more damage they can cause each other during manufacture and transport. The larger denominations lend themselves more toward mid-grade set building by beginning collectors.

2. Do I build a complete set, a type set, a mint set, a proof set, or a date set?

My suggestion here is to start with a mint set (all of the coins produced at a specific mint). By doing this you will be able to set yourself in a direction and also become more familiar with the production diagnostics associated with each of the mints. Even though each mint produced federally approved coinage, they all had their own diagnostics regarding their production.

A perfect example is this: In the 1920s, Standing Liberty Quarters stuck in Philadelphia were decidedly more fully struck than quarters from the San Francisco mint, so an MS65 Standing Liberty Quarter from the San Francisco mint would have the look and eye appeal of an MS64 counterpart minted in Philadelphia. This was due to the fact that each mint had their own pressman who was charged with the calibration and operation of each locations presses. This is also the reason why some mints produced more lustrous coins than others. Luster is dependent on die spacing, and with five different mint locations, it would be impossible to have completely identical results employing different pressmen at each mint.

3. I want to collect different types of coins; what do I do?

If you dont want to collect just one type of coin, then the best suggestion I have is to build out a date set, which would give you the opportunity to purchase one of each denomination of coin produced in a given year. This is also a great direction to take because there are certain years (1878-85) that will allow you to include two different types of silver dollars if you are building a proof set. Once you have completed building a cent-through-dollar set, you may choose to include the gold coins produced for that year as well. If youre really motivated, you might even include any pattern coins from the year youve chosen!

These are just a few suggestions to get you motivated, and to provide a goal-oriented approach for you when buying. In the long run it will serve you well to have this kind of direction, and it should also prevent you from buying in bulk, having duplicates and in general, from wasting money. In my 30-year career I have seen more than a few people throwing cash in six different directions, only to end up with a box of coins rather than a set or worthwhile collection that has some semblance of order. Remember to take your time, keep a list of what you have versus what you need, buy the best quality you can afford, and always purchase coins certified by PCGS or NGC.