Silver American Eagle coin sales blitz to all-time February record
Posted onA Feb. 26 CoinWeek article headline posed the question, Are gold coins driving buying momentum? Judging by the U.S. Mints February sales figures, the answer is leaning toward yes.
Although gold is outshining silver this year, finishing the month up more than 10% to add to its 6% gain in January, the Mints 2016 silver American Eagle sales have smashed yet another record. Sales hit 4,782,000 for the month, making it the best-performing February in Mint history and the 11th-highest month ever.
On pace for another annual record: Almost 11 million silver Eagles have been purchased in 2016, and if this pace continues, the sales record of 47 million set last year could well be shattered.
Although totals dipped by 20% from this past Januarys 5,954,500 tally, sales exploded by 58% versus those in February 2015. The sales totals are all the more amazing considering that the Mint continues to ration silver Eagles on a weekly basis, allocating a maximum number of coins (usually around 1 million) to wholesalers because of a shortage of planchets, or coin blanks.
Gold Eagle sales quadruple year over year: Gold American Eagles also are in hot demand. The Mint reported that 83,500 ounces of the 2016 issues were sold in February. Thats down 33% versus the prior month but up more than 350% over the 18,500 ounces purchased in February 2015. For the year so far, sales total 207,500 ounces for a 108.5% increase from the 99,500 ounces sold during the first two months of last year, Coin News reported.
The Mints other gold bullion coin, the gold Buffalo, followed a similar pattern: February saw 19,000 ounces sold, down about 44% versus Januarys 34,000-ounce total but up more than 58% versus February 2015s sales.
Singapore firms sales doubling monthly: And its not just the U.S. Mint reporting massive interest in metals. Check out this recent CNBC interview with Raphael Scherer, a chief international officer at Degussa. Our subsidiary here in Singapore is doubling their sales numbers almost every month now, he said. Buyers come from almost every place in the world. Theyre buying in particular the investment products like bullion and coins, kilo bars, Krugerrands, Maple Leafs, mainly investment products. Our forecast is going above $1,300 going toward $1,400 by the end of this year.
Thus, while gold ETF inflows have helped power the yellow metal into bullish territory, so too have coin sales.
Gold-silver ratio zooming higher: And its no wonder that some investors are piling into silver. The gold-silver ratio recently crossed above 83, its highest level since 2008, meaning that it takes about 83 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.
Some see that as a sign that silver is undervalued. Its also a testament to golds allure as a safe haven amid 2016s multiple uncertainties.
Gold is showing the way higher for silver, wrote Jesses Amricain Caf. The gold/silver ratio is hovering around 80 which indicates either a secular squeeze in physical gold and/or a risk related flight to safety.
Silver is half precious metal, half industrial metal, and it hasnt been the safety play that gold has, Optionsellers.com founder James Cordier told Bloomberg. Gold certainly has done extremely well with uncertainty around the world and with the idea that interest rates wont be rising. Until global growth comes up, the gold-silver ratio will continue to widen.
Buying silver with the gold/silver ratio at 80 is like buying gold on steroids, added Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics.
Precious metals remain the safety play of 2016, as evidenced by physical coin and bar sales. Pick your poison, gold and/or silver. But right now, silver offers a cheap entry price, especially for those who think gold has risen too quickly in recent weeks.
Gold miners tout metals prospects as bull awakens in 2016
Posted onGolds fortunes have turned around in 2016, and likewise, the miners that produce the yellow metal also are seeing their stocks rise.
BMO Capital Markets this week hosted the 25th Global Metals and Mining Conference in Hollywood, Fla., where several top industry executives weighed in on golds prospects going forward.
The fundamentals which keep the price of gold up havent changed, whether its jewelry demand, whether its fear about uncertainty and also potentially negative interest rates, which are what people are talking about, and thats given the good support to the gold price, Anglogold Ashanti CEO Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan told CNBC on Monday.
A lot of people moving into gold: Negative interest rates, which are currently in force in Japan and several parts of Europe, will continue to boost gold, especially if the Federal Reserve follows suit. Gold will go up simply because youre actually getting benefit by keeping physical gold or gold equities, he said. They appreciate, as compared to the other classes of investments. And thats the thesis behind it. And youre starting to see a lot of people moving in that direction and funds coming into gold funds.
From the supply standpoint, companies have been pulling back on their expansion and exploration plans, he noted. What you will certainly see is a decline in gold production coming, and it takes about 10 to 13 years for a new gold project to take off. So you will see that supply being squeezed, he said.
For Venkatakrishnan, the cycle is now turning in golds favor, though it wont always be smooth sailing. The four-year bear run in the gold market has to unwind at some stage, and youre starting to see gold position itself very well to basically get the uptick, so Im not convinced its a short-term trend which youre seeing, but there could be volatility, certainly through 2016.
Mine supply to drop by 17%: And Newmont Mining chief Gary Goldberg also outlined a bullish case for gold, concentrating on simple supply-and-demand fundamentals. Fundamentals for the medium to long term are good for gold when you look at both the supply and the demand side, he told CNBC.
On the supply side, people havent been investing in new gold mines. You havent had the investment in exploration. You expect new mine supply to drop by about 17% over the next five years. Demand is still strong. Asia is still the major place where gold goes. Half the gold is consumed in China and India. With the middle class in China going from 300 million to 500 million, India moving to 500 million by 2025 thats all good for gold.
Very positive thanks to negative rates: The Fed will continue to play a key role as well in golds direction, especially if it backs off its plans to raise interest rates as many as four times this year. Over the last couple of weeks, whats happened? Youve had a lot of uncertainty; youve had the Fed finally raise interest rates, which I think dampened the price of gold last year youve finally seen that come off over the last couple of months.
And if the Fed caves and goes negative on rates, I think thats a very positive thing for gold, Goldberg commented.
The grim outlook that miners were facing a year ago has dissipated somewhat for now thanks to the tailwind of higher bullion prices. Playing the mining stocks can add alpha to your gold bets, but like most any investments, dont bet the whole hog. Endless variables from energy and labor costs to disease, war, and environmental regulations can disrupt mining operations and gouge stock values. Therefore, make sure your core gold holding is in the metal itself: physical, tangible gold, plus silver bullion and rare coins.
Gold logs best month since 2012, gets major push from Deutsche Bank, Citi
Posted onGold stumbled Friday after the fourth-quarter U.S. GDP estimate surprised to the upside, but it just logged its best month since at least 2012.
Gold is up about up 9% in February alone, and volumes on the biggest futures exchange, the Comex, jumped to their highest level ever confirming that investor interest is massive.
Gold-silver ratio soars: The gold-silver ratio also has zoomed above 80, its highest level since at least 2008, suggesting either a secular squeeze in physical gold and/or a risk related flight to safety, noted one analyst.
Its just pure risk and fear thats driving gold, UBS exec Wayne Gordon told Bloomberg. People are unduly worried about a sizable depreciation of the Chinese yuan, people are concerned about European credit, and people are worried about a U.S. recession.
The metal also continues to draw outspoken support from some high-profile corners.
Time to buy golden insurance: Deutsche Bank is the latest major financial institution to issue a bullish take on gold a stance that is no surprise given that its chief U.S. economist, Joe Lavorgna, has been predicting a recession for a while now. In a new note, it urged investors to buy bullion for financial insurance.
There are rising stresses in the global financial system; in particular the rising risk of a U.S. corporate default cycle and the risk of a sharp one-off renminbi devaluation due to the sharp increase in Chinas capital outflows, it said. Buying some gold as insurance is warranted.
A bit like insurance, which is often a grudge purchase for many, some investors may balk at the current levels, it said. We would, however, argue that given the plethora of negative deposit rates globally, the holding cost of gold is now negligible in many jurisdictions, and therefore gold deserves to be trading at elevated levels versus many other assets.
We think the (economic) risks are to the downside. Gold has tended to underperform in an environment of strong global growth, so whilst not an outright tailwind, slowing growth certainly eases the pressure on gold, it concluded.
Gold to trump cash in portfolios: Deutsche isnt alone. Citis global asset allocation team also has come out swinging for gold, touting its overweight stance and declaring that has gone even longer on precious metals.
To balance the portfolio, cash goes to underweight in a negative rate world gold may replace cash in portfolios, the team said.
Meanwhile, another financial behemoth, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, confirmed Thursday that gold funds accumulated their largest inflows since 2009 and equity funds posted their longest run of outflows since 2008 in the last week as financial market turmoil continued to unnerve investors, Reuters reported.
$5.8 billion into gold over 3 weeks: Through Feb. 24, $2.6 billion was invested into gold funds, bringing the three-week total to $5.8 billion, the most money since June 2009.
Inflows have coincided with the Fed talking down the U.S. dollar and rising investor fears of recession, the BAML global investment strategy team noted.
With a roughly 16% gain this year, gold is back on the radar of some prominent financial institutions. Investors might do well to take this trend into account in their own portfolios.
SWAG (and rare coins) shelter from the war on cash
Posted onThe twin policies of negative interest rates and large-denomination cash bans will have a beneficial effect on the prices of alternative stores of value, argues Reuters columnist James Saft, in a Feb. 25 article, titled War on cash to pump up silver, wine, art, gold.
The obvious beneficiary of negative rates will be precious metals, Saft notes, but also collectibles and other investments of passion.
Saft invokes a catchy acronym for go-to hard assets coined by economist and author Joe Roseman: SWAG, for Silver, Wine, Art, and Gold.
Investors are increasingly forced to seek alternative asset classes to insulate themselves in this war on cash, Roseman noted. Simply put, very few asset classes can act effectively as an alternative safe haven.
Bullion is not a collectible: But its a mistake to equate silver and gold bullion with wine and art. The former are commodities, and their prices can fluctuate according to a variety of factors. The latter, though, are collectibles that assume much of their value from their rarity, provenance, and aesthetic qualities.
Silver and gold have their collectible counterparts, of course, and that would be rare coins. Numismatic coins are not limited to just silver and gold: Classic U.S. coins cover the waterfront in composition, with copper, nickel, and even steel being used to create metallic currency. You’ll find copper coins weighing less than an ounce that are worth 10 times or more the value of a full ounce of gold bullion. Just witness the recent sale of Tom Reynolds collection of large cents from the 18th and 19th centuries: 332 pennies commanded almost $6.5 million, with each cent averaging nearly $20,000. That inherent numismatic rarity makes certain collectible coins much more valuable than gold bullion.
$500 billion for just 2 paintings: Saft is correct that gold and silver will gain during the new war on cash and savers, but collectible coins could stand to gain even more. We’re already seeing tremendous results in the art world, with billionaire Kevin Griffin paying David Geffens foundation about $500 million for two paintings: one by Jackson Pollock and the other by Willem de Kooning. High-profile sales of other top-of-the-line collectibles also have made headlines, such as classic cars. For example, a rare 1957 Ferrari 335 S Scaglietti sold for $39.8 million to become the most expensive car ever auctioned.
In the numismatic world, the most recent sale of the D. Brent Pogue collection also proved the mettle of rare coins, bringing in a total of $17 million, with one 1793 Chain Cent almost breaking the $1 million mark.
Coins up 232% in 10 years: The record of rare coins speaks for itself, even before the idea of negative interest rates began sweeping the globe. The Knight Frank consultancy’s most recent Luxury Investment Index, updated through September 2015, found that numismatic coins were the No. 3 high-end collectible investment for the preceding 12 months, gaining 13% to finish behind just art (15%) and classic cars (18%) among a group of high-end categories (including stamps, jewelry, watches, etc.).
Over the longer haul, rare coins did even better. Over the previous five years, coin prices finished in second place with a 92% increase, lagging only cars, which generated 161% growth. The overall index gained 63% over five years.
And in the 10-year span, rare coins finished in fourth place with a 232% gain, behind art (239%), wine (243%), and cars (496%). The overall index rose 206% over the decade. In contrast, gold bullion rose by 174% during the decade.
If coins were posting these kinds of numbers in just a zero-interest-rate environment, imagine what they’ll do under a negative-rare regime.
SWAG is where investors want to be when cash has become trash thanks to the reckless central bankers. But don’t forget that rare coins can outperform gold and silver bullion by exponential leaps and bounds over time.
Coin investing: How rare coins can serve as a portfolio hedge
Posted onBy Douglas LePre, Senior Portfolio Manager at Blanchard and Company, Inc.
Today’s rare coin market has the highest number of active investors looking to diversify their financial portfolios than any other time in history, and each of them has entered the market with various goals. Some are looking for gains, some are building legacies to leave for their heirs, and some are just looking for a safe haven from equities, the dollar, and the banks. Regardless as to their motivation, investors are looking at rare coins as important investments, and certain segments of this market have proven to be a great hedge for peoples portfolios.
Historically, many investors looking for a hedge have turned to the big three precious metals: silver, gold, and platinum. But these markets have dramatically changed over the past five to 10 years. So the question becomes how should an investor hedge a traditional portfolio while maintaining liquidity and keeping volatility at bay? The dictionary defines a hedge as: an act or means of preventing complete loss of a bet, an argument, an investment, or the like. So, a hedge really isn’t about growth as much as it is about providing stability when markets become unstable. The rare coin market holds far more hedge tools that most are aware of. Here are a few of the most efficient:
Semi-Key Date Rarities
Semi-key date coins are exactly what they sound like. They are coins that are considered too rare to be classified as generic but are still not as elusive as the rarest key dates. Every issue has its semi-key dates. Not only are they fun to research, but they work especially well as a hedge.
Private and Territorial Gold
During the California Gold Rush, miners were challenged with discovering safe and economical means of getting their gold to the East Coast for assay and coining. The desperate need for a branch mint had been outweighed by a combination of politics and sectional rivalries. The federal government refused to authorize a mint for any of the gold mining areas. While the U.S. Constitution expressly prohibited the states from issuing their own money, there was no law against individuals doing so, hence the existence of this very intriguing portion of the market. Even with the decline in the value of gold over the past four years, the values of these types of coins have remained steadfast.
Carson City Coinage
Carson City coinage has always had the ability to stand on its own and has never had to rely on a market maker in order to achieve its status. Simply said, this is an issue that is appealing to both investors and collectors alike due to its amazing history, popularity, and rarity. It remains very steadfast in the market, including silver dollars or gold issues such as eagles or $20 Liberties.
Owning anything from the Carson City Mint largely ensures its equity is safe.
These are just a few of the areas in the market that can fill the need for a hedge tool without the volatility that exists in the equities. The process of finding what to purchase first starts with identifying the motivation for the buy before ever spending a dime. A trusted professional can help.
Deadly accurate gold forecaster says price could run as high as $1,400
Posted onGold soared again Wednesday after two heavy doses of bad economic news coldcocked the U.S. outlook.
First off, although the U.S. services sector has been hailed as a bright spot in the economy, the latest PMI survey showed otherwise: It collapsed to 49.8, well below expectations of 53.5. The decline signaled the weakest service-sector performance since the government shutdown temporarily disrupted business activity in October 2013, Markit noted, forecasting a significant risk of the U.S. economy falling into contraction in the first quarter.
Now on to housing, another purported pillar of the recovery:New-home sales declined by 9.2% in January, the biggest drop for that month going back to 2009, and prices also took a big hit.
Stocks struggled early on but pared some losses by afternoon and eventually turned positive as oil prices also remained volatile. Gold, in contrast, pulled off another big advance and ended at more-than-one-week highs, not far from its 2016 peak near $1,260, hit Feb. 11.
Hyper bullish sentiment: The metal topped $1,245 and gained more than 1.5%, while silver also rose 1.2% to reach $15.46 before a late-afternoon pullback.
Inflows into gold ETFs continue to be a key driver for the metal. Retail sentiment for gold has suddenly become hyper bullish, Insignia Consultants analyst Chintan Karnani told MarketWatch, citing ETF demand.
Meanwhile, central-bank support for gold also remains a robust trend, with both Kazakhstan and Russia increasing their bullion reserves in December, according to new IMF data.
Up about 16% on the year, golds continuing strength has forced another high-profile bearish analyst to reconsider his forecasts. ABN AMRO exec Georgette Boele recently made news by retooling her price target from $900 to $1,300. Now one of the most accurate gold forecasters of recent years also is sounding a more optimistic note on the metal, according to Bloomberg.
Gold showing its superhero mettle: Whereas Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. economist Barnabas Gan previously predicted gold would finish the year near $950, bullions staying power has cause him to soften his stance. Hes now raised his price goal to $1,000-$1,150 by years end, says it will hold the $1,200 level this quarter, and thinks it could run much higher under the right conditions.
Should risk aversion dominate amid intensified global growth headwinds, gold may well rally to as high as $1,400, he wrote, noting that amid the global equity downturn, very low oil prices and magnified risk aversion seen since the start of the year, one hero stood up strong, providing shelter, describing bullion as a gold, the superhero.
If golds surprising outperformance in 2016 gains further momentum, then even Goldman Sachs will have to change its official line on the yellow metal. Almost everyone thinks theyre wrong at this point, anyhow.
Why gold? Because in a money-market fund, your money will double in 6,000 years
Posted onDoes the case for gold in a world of negative interest rates need to be spelled out further?
Contrarian economist Marc Faber did so recently in a Bloomberg interview, saying, Leave a million dollars with a bank, and in a year you get only something like $990,000 back. I would rather want to own some solid currency, in other words gold.
Now a new CNBC story confirms that even bedrock money-market accounts are at risk of becoming money losers.
Earning zero or even less: Over the last eight years, interest on money-market funds has declined significantly, writer Bryan Borzykowski noted. In 2007, rates were around 4.5%. Today they’re at about 0.1%. If rates fall further, Americans will be lucky to even get a single basis point on their investment.
The next quote is really a shocker for those who need this losing proposition quantified: At this rate, your money will double in 6,000 years, said Mike Geri of RBC Wealth Management. You’re essentially earning zero. Its horrible.
The end of money-market funds?: Negative rates are the biggest calamity for the industry since the oldest money-market fund, the Reserve Primary Fund, broke the buck in September 2008 after the Lehman Bros. failure, with its share price falling to 97 cents versus the $1 minimum expected of such funds. That shocking dip, in an investment hitherto thought to be safe and stable, caused a run of redemption’s from money-market funds as investors liquidated holdings for fear of losing capital.
The increasing likelihood of negative rates is now threatening the entire money-market industry, according to CNBC. If rates go negative, then theoretically, they might actually have to pay an investor to keep money in a fund, it said. That would likely spell the end of the industry.
Safes to store cash selling out in Japan: Want more proof that negative rates are coming? The war on cash is the latest sign, with calls to ban high-denomination bills growing. Just look at some recent events and published commentary. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that secure storage safes are in hot demand in Japan, which imposed negative rates in January. According to the article, one $700 model has already sold out.
Look no further than Japans hardware stores for a worrying new sign that consumers are hoarding cash the opposite of what the Bank of Japan had hoped when it recently introduced negative interest rates, the newspaper wrote. Signs are emerging of higher demand for safes a place where the interest rate on cash is always zero, no matter what the central bank does.
Swiss demanding big bills: Meanwhile, The WSJ also noted in a separate story that demand for a high-denomination note is soaring in Switzerland, which instituted a negative-rate regime in 2014. Demand for Switzerland’s 1,000 franc note ($1,010), one of the largest denomination bills in the world, rose sharply last year after the country’s central bank cut interest rates deeply into negative territory, it reported. Holding money in cash would protect from the risk of Swiss banks at some point charging a broad range of customers to deposit money.
NYT backs killing $100 notes: And in a new editorial, The New York Times backed Harvard economist Larry Summers recent exhortation to abolish the $100 bill. There is no need for large-denomination currency, it argued.
Bloomberg writer Mark Gilbert also posed his own so-called modest proposal to the debate, urging that officials withdraw the big-ticket notes with, say, six months notice to allow legitimate hoarders to cash them in. Then, reintroduce the high-denomination notes with new designs and let it be known that the same exercise will be repeated at random intervals in the future. That way, those who want to enjoy the freedom to store bundles of cash wont have their civil liberties curtailed, while the bad guys will be deterred from amassing piles of currency that could become worthless to them at any moment.
Make no mistake, though: Calls to abolish cash on the basis that large bills are the tools of criminals, terrorists, and drug dealers are a red herring. The real goal is to abolish cash as a favor to the central banks, who are champing at the bit to institute negative-interest-rate policies and force everyday savers into digital forms of currency that can be tracked and controlled at the technocrats whim.
Metals are the ultimate NIRP end-around: But all this talk of banning cash to facilitate a negative-rate environment is irrelevant for those who hold physical precious metals, argued Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics.
Lost in this fog of fear is the obvious alternative: gold and silver, he wrote. Worried about the elimination of $100 bills because it makes it harder to accumulate and safe-keep meaningful amounts of cash? An ounce of gold stores a lot more wealth than a $100 bill. Currently one roll of silver Eagles is worth more than three $100 bills.
And HSBC currency strategist Daragh Maher made a similar point in a recent Bloomberg interview. If you’re nervous, this is the cleanest asset play, he said of gold. You don’t have an intervention threat. You’re not worried about yields. You know this whole story about deeply negative rates and the constraint there will be people cant hold cash because of the physical costs of storing it? You can hold a lot more wealth in gold if you don’t want to have money parked in a bank that’s charging you money.
Gold Brasher Doubloon creator still making numismatic headlines centuries later
Posted onIt seems almost like yesterday that Blanchard and Company made numismatic history by placing the famed Brasher Doubloon for a record $7.395 million with a Wall Street investment firm. The coin, dated 1787, was graded AU50 by PCGS and has a green CAC sticker.
At the time of the transaction, December 2011, CAC founder and Blanchard consultant John Albanese hailed the coin as one of the most iconic pieces in all of numismatics and the holy grail of all collectible gold coins. And it still is. Only seven Brasher Doubloons in all survive, and the one placed by Blanchard is the sole specimen with the initials of its maker, EB for goldsmith Ephraim Brasher, punched across the breast of the eagle depicted on the coin. The other six specimens feature EB on the birds right wing.
In a class by itself: Why is it significant? As a Blanchard press release noted at the time: Recent research has established that the Brasher Punch-on-Breast Doubloon is the first American-made gold coin that had a denomination in dollars and that was struck to the same standard that was later adopted for all U.S. gold coins, making it what is today considered the first truly American gold coin. No other U.S. Colonial or Federal coin can make that claim, putting Brashers first New York-style Doubloon in a class by itself.
And as then-Blanchard CEO Donald W. Doyle, Jr. observed, Blanchard specializes in all types of American rare coins serving investors and collectors of just about every budget, but when it comes to the rarest of the rare, the company has established itself through transactions like this and others as THE rare coin firm.
Brasher regulated gold now graded: Now, in 2016, goldsmith Ephraim Brasher, who was a neighbor of George Washington in New York, is back in the news. NGC has announced that it has graded six so-called regulated gold coins, five of which Brasher personally handled.
Spanning years from 1726 to 1778, the 18th-century coins are the products of various foreign mints (Great Britain, Brazil, and Chile). Brashers role was to weigh them and either plug or clip them as necessary to make them compatible for U.S. commerce. The five coins bear his signature EB stamp, while contemporary silversmiths John Burger and Joseph Richardson Jr. also played roles in regulating some of the specimens.
The coins provide another fascinating look at the work of one of the pioneering and towering figures in American numismatic history.
Golden cross signals bullions potential breakout higher
Posted onAnother down day for oil and stocks, another up day for gold and silver prices.
Gold rebounded from Mondays 2% dip after Saudi Arabias oil minister ruled out any imminent production cuts, slamming oil prices by almost 5%. The announcement also was a drag on stocks, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indexes all down more than 1% each in Tuesday afternoon trading.
The ongoing catastrophe in the oil sector has caused JPMorgan Chase to set aside another $600 million to guard against losses from its loans to energy extractors and producers. It also warned that its prepared to reserve as much as $1.5 billion in buffer cash if oil prices remain around $25 a barrel.
Golden cross portends 2.8% gain: Gold responded as the go-to safe-haven play of the day, advancing by more than 1% to trade near $1,225 by the afternoon. Silver also gained about 0.6% to hit $15.25.
As long as gold can hold above the key $1,200 level, its bullish momentum is intact. In fact, on Friday, the yellow metal formed an ultra-positive technical indicator called the golden cross, in which its 50-day moving average closed above its 100-day moving average.
Thats seen as bullish by some traders and analysts who look to chart patterns for price direction, Bloomberg reported. Its only happenedwhen both measures were trending higher 10 times since the turn of the century, with prices rallying an average of 2.8% in the subsequent 90 days.
Fed rate-hike pace hits roadblock: The rising probability that the Fed will keep interest rates lower for longer, even despite last Fridays uptick in the Consumer Price Index inflation gauge, is supporting gold.
Were positioned for a bull market in gold, said Jeff Sica of Circle Squared Alternative Investments. With the amount of volatility in the market, theres going to be continued strength in gold. Its obvious that even if the interest rates do move, theyre not going to move up quickly, and theres greater likelihood that they may even stay the same or decline.
The biggest story has been the strength in gold around this, more than anything else, added Rob Haworth of U.S. Bank Wealth Management. While its been haven flows, its also been retail investors looking for anything moving higher because its been a struggle last year to be an owner of stocks or any other risky assets.
U.S. manufacturing remains mired: Meanwhile, ahead of Fridays U.S. GDP report, new economic data confirm the growing pessimism over the American financial outlook.
The Conference Boards consumer confidence gauge fell to its weakest level since July 2015. Meanwhile, the Richmond Federal Reserves manufacturing survey dropped to three-year lows, and the Case-Shiller home-price index missed expectations.
About the only bright spot was in existing-home sales, which unexpectedly rose in January. But even that news was tempered by a warning from the National Association of Realtors that home prices are still rising too fast because of ongoing supply constraints.
Many risks remain, bank says: All these drags on the U.S. economy suggest that any short-term gains in stock prices are reason to cash out and redeploy capital into precious metals. The Geneva Swiss Bank is one firm doing just that.
In declaring the recent stock rebound a dead-cat bounce, the bank likened the currency landscape to February 2008 and wrote, We believe that this was just a bear-market rally driven essentially by hedge funds covering their shorts. Many risks including China/CNY, oil supply, U.S. economy, German economy/social situation, BREXIT, earnings growth, high valuations, still remain in mind. Investors are losing confidence in central banks hazardous monetary policies and buying gold as the ultimate hedge.
Gold ETFs see biggest one-day influx since May 2010
Posted onThe key cog missing from gold investment during the past few lean years is now returning with bang: ETF inflows.
Gold ETFs (also called ETPs) are no substitute for a long-term core holding of physical bullion, but watching the performance of these investment products can tell us a lot about current sentiment toward the yellow metal.
Why? Because gold tends to attract interest when stocks are falling, and conversely, when equities are rising, bullion tends to suffer. As stocks ascended to new all-time nominal highs on the back of the Federal Reserves quantitative-easing and zero-interest-rate policies, interest in gold lagged.
$1,400 price target quite imaginable: Now, though, the rush into gold in 2016 is gathering pace as investors seeking a haven boosted holdings to the highest level since March, Bloomberg reported.
This past Friday, gold ETF products saw inflows of 25.39 metric tons, or a 1.6% surge, bringing total holdings to 1,640.81 tons. In percentage terms, thats the biggest one-day influx since May 2010, the news agency reported.
The sharp rise in the gold price this year is only the beginning of the whole drama, Wing Fung Financial Group researcher Mark To noted, arguing that a price target of $1,300 to $1,400 is quite imaginable in the coming months.
Europeans, Chinese turning to gold: Meanwhile, Barrons also commented on the rush into ETFs in a Feb. 20 article. Today, investors around the world are panning for gold via exchange-traded funds, and the growing availability and popularity of ETFs that own the actual metal for European and Chinese investors will help keep golds luster, Chris Dieterich wrote.
Now, some $2.5 billion has roared into the SPDR Gold Shares in 2016, while the iShares Gold Trust ETF has taken in another $1 billion. The end result has been that inflows into bullion-backed ETPs this year have also topped outflows in all of 2015, confirmed U.S. Global Investors chief Frank Holmes.
Moreover, the global complexion of gold ETF owners has changed in recent years, Dieterich added, with European and Chinese ETFs now accounting for a sizable portion of market share. It could be the flood of overseas ETF buyers helps buoy the current rally.
Asian consumption of gold has been firmly established. The resurgence of physical gold and silver buying is on the upswing, as evidenced by U.S. Mint coin sales. And now it looks like the momentum-chasing stock investors are losing faith in equities and seeking safety in precious metals. Interest from mainstream, primarily Western, stock investors has been whats missing in the gold market since the price peaked in 2011. Now the tide appears to be turning in a bullish way.
Note: Although gold ETFs are a convenient way to invest in the metal, they arent necessarily the best way to do so. An investors core stake in gold should always be in physical bullion bars and coins. For more on the difference between gold bullion and gold ETFs, click here.