On Friday the U.S. Commerce Department will issue its GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015. Analysts are predicting that the growth rate will come in at 0.4%, down from a preliminary estimate of 0.7% reported in January.

Arguing that U.S. growth is picking up in 2016, optimists point to the Atlanta Federal Reserves GDPNow forecasting tool, which as of Feb. 17 pegs 1Q growth at 2.6%.

But anecdotally, todays economic landscape feels like a recession to many, including billionaire investor Sam Zell, who told Fox Business last week:

The current environment either suggests that were already in a recession or that were rapidly moving toward moving into recession. World trade has slowed down; the currency issues continue to be all over the place: China going one way, Japan and the euro going the other way. And the uncertainties of this election year contribute to this, so when I look at the prospects, I keep looking all over the world and all over the United States for demand, and the demand is pretty weak. And ultimately recessions reflect falling demand.

4 or more states already on the skids: Bloomberg news also weighed in on the issue, noting that even if the national growth numbers havent yet fallen into contraction territory, pockets of the country already are suffering, particularly those states with oil-driven economies. It cited a Moodys Analytics report that four states Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming are in a recession, while Louisiana, New Mexico, and Oklahoma are all at risk.

One Bloomberg survey of economists put the odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 20%, the highest level since February 2013.

Whereas some experts see bright spots in the housing and service sectors, most analysts agree that the U.S. manufacturing base is in definite recession, thanks in part to the strength of the dollar. The latest PMI report from Markit Economics confirmed that fear.

On the heels of weakness in the rest of the world’s PMIs, U.S. manufacturing just printed 51.0 (missing expectations of 52.4) to fall to its lowest level since October 2012, Zero Hedge reported.

Worst conditions in 3 years: U.S. factories are reporting the worst business conditions for over three years, Markit noted. Every indicator from the flash PMI survey, from output, order books and exports to employment, inventories and prices, is flashing a warning light about the health of the manufacturing economy.

Output and order books are growing at one of their slowest rates since late-2012, with exports falling amid weakened global demand and the strong dollar.Hiring has weakened as a result. With backlogs of work slumping to the greatest extent since the height of the recession in 2009 and inventories rising for the third successive month, its likely that firms will come under increasing pressure to cut payroll numbers and production in coming months unless demand revives.

Consumer is last bulwark left: CNBC just reported two other signs of a looming recession: Income-tax withholdings and corporate profits are both shrinking.

With manufacturing in an inexorable decline, the only support left for the U.S. economy is the American consumer. If the consumer were to falter for any reason, that would be a big problem, warned Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

The implications of a U.S. recession are huge for gold. With the Federal Reserve having announced the potential for four interest-rate hikes this year after initiating one in December, a slowdown here could force a major policy reversal. That tacit admission of a Fed error could send gold skyrocketing.

Negative rates could juice gold further: Moreover, the Fed is pretty much out of monetary-policy bullets, with rates already near zero. Whats left? More quantitative easing, of course, the same debt-monetization scheme that helped send gold to all-time nominal highs in 2011. And then theres the new policy tool seemingly on everybodys lips: negative interest rates.

Negative rates are a death blow to savers, who see their bank deposits hit with storage fees. As contrarian economist Marc Faber so eloquently described the quandary of negative rates: Leave a million dollars with a bank, and in a year you get only something like $990,000 back. I would rather want to own some solid currency, in other words gold.

Just when some analysts were calling an end to golds resurgence, the yellow metal reversed and moved sharply higher Thursday as stocks stumbled and two major agencies warned that the global economy is on the skids.

A grim earnings forecast from Walmart and another negative Philly Fed manufacturing survey rained on the Dows parade Thursday, while the Conference Boards Leading Economic Index also declined.

Overwhelmingly bullish sentiment: Golds inverse relationship with the stock market continued to prove its mettle, with the bullion price rising 2% and topping $1,234 by afternoon after earlier struggling to hold the $1,200 level. Silver also gained, up 1.3% near $15.48.

The equities pulled back. Gold popped, RJO Futures strategist Bob Haberkorn told Reuters. While equities are starting to come back and oils shown a little bit of life, gold is strengthening as the day goes on. The sentiment in gold right now is overwhelmingly bullish.

That turning point midday, you had stocks sell off a little bit. Now gold has turned up pretty meaningfully, added Rob Haworth of U.S. Bank Wealth Management. Golds working as a safe-haven trade right now in this era of negative interest rates in Europe, Japan, Sweden, and Denmark.

Moodys issues bearish outlook: A new report from Moodys also served as a buzz kill for stock investors. Its 2016-17 Global Macro Outlook report warned that risks to global growth have increased since November and world leaders have little left in their fiscal and monetary arsenals to mitigate the threat, CNBC reported.

The ratings agency said that growth prospects were being hammered by Chinas slowdown, a slump in commodity prices and tighter financing conditions in some emerging markets.

This pain would outweigh factors helpful to growth, such as the loose monetary policy in Europe, Japan and the U.S.

U.S. faces headwinds, says OECD: Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development issued its own warning and cut its global growth forecasts, from 3.3% to 3%. It said the U.S. is facing an intensification of headwinds, including the drag on exports from the stronger dollar and energy sector investment from low oil prices.

Financial stability risks are substantial, the OECD said. Some emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to sharp exchange-rate movements and the effects of high domestic debt.

Its solution? More spending! A stronger collective policy response is needed to strengthen demand, the OECD said. Monetary policy cannot work alone. Fiscal policy is now contractionary in many major economies. Structural reform momentum has slowed. All three levers must be deployed more actively to create stronger and sustained growth.

More hikes unwise, Fed exec says: The chief of the worlds biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, also told clients to prepare for lower than normal returns with greater than normal risk. Central banks will be forced to increasingly ease through negative interest rates and quantitative easing, Dalio predicted, but said these tools are losing their potency.

A top Federal Reserve official pretty much underscored Dalios message Wednesday night. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said it would be unwise to continue a normalization strategy in an environment of declining market-based inflation expectations. He also implied that more QE and even negative interest rates could be on the table.

No wonder gold is on the move higher again. With major economic agencies forecasting slowing growth ahead, central bankers who recently were talking up higher interest rates are now on the verge of reversing course once again, and thats bullish for the yellow metal.

Love him or hate him, CNBC Mad Money star Jim Cramer recently delivered a masterful explication of the current bullish case for gold.

The case he outlines comes mainly from an associate of his, technical analyst Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading.

Although some of Cramers critics say his endorsement of the yellow metal is a contrarian signal that gold is back on its way down, the former Goldman Sachs trader and hedge-fund manager has always been consistent in his stance: that investors should have modest exposure to gold but not bet the farm on it to hedge against economic chaos and downturns in the stock market.

Golds mojo is back: Ive always been a big believer in the idea that you should always own at least a little gold, he said, whether that be in the form of physical bullion, ETFs, or dependable mining shares. Now, after spending 4 years in the wilderness, gold is starting to look like its gotten a little bit of its energy back.

Examining recent regulatory filings in the futures markets, Cramer notes increasing optimism in gold among large fund managers, but nothing outside of historical norms. Therefore, if the big boys want to bet on gold, they still got plenty of money left on the sidelines, which means theres a ton of firepower to send the precious metal higher still.

Positive fundamentals return: Cramer then goes on to review how changes in central-bank rate policies are now in golds favor. The fundamentals have absolutely gotten more positive for gold in recent months, he said, thanks largely to Japans recent push into negative interest rates. You actually lose money by letting your cash sit in a bank vault overnight, he said, and that environment helps make gold a more attractive investment. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Fed seems to be backing off its plan to hike rates four times this year. We might only get a single rate hike this year, he said.

The path of least resistance is now higher, Cramer continued, but that doesnt mean its going to happen overnight. With the gold-buying frenzy of the Chinese New Year holiday over, bullion is facing seasonal headwinds, and the roughly $200 parabolic move its made so far this year is unsustainable without a cool-off period. The gold market will need time to digest these gains, he said.

Therefore, gold is going higher, but it might need to go a bit lower first before this newfound rally can really get into gear, Cramer said in summarizing Garners forecast. Golds headed higher longer-term but right now its very overbought. Parabolic moves tend to correct, and they correct large.

However, for longer-term investors, gold could make its way back up to $1,500 even if it encounters some resistance en route, Cramer said. He said the metal could fall back to lower levels near $1,050, but its moves Thursday suggest that the upward path has been resumed.

Gold has finally woken up from its multiyear slumber, and the precious metal is poised to give you a powerful long-term move higher, he concluded, with the caveat to expect some selling and profit taking before the big move higher continues.

After last weeks meteoric rocket launch above $1,260, gold prices not unexpectedly pulled back this week as traders took profits. However, after dipping below $1,200, the yellow metal firmed once again Wednesday as the Federal Reserves latest minutes reflected a cautious outlook.

Rebounding from a three-day slide, gold topped $1,210 and was trading near $1,210 after the Fed released its minutes. Silver also rose about 0.5% and was at $15.30 in afternoon trading.

Potential drag on U.S. economy: Citing a greater-than-expected slowdown in China, the minutes to the Feds Jan. 26-27 meeting showed growing concerns about the global economic picture. Participants judged that the overall implications of these developments for the outlook for domestic economic activity was unclear, but they agreed that uncertainty had increased, the minutes read. Many saw these developments as increasing the downside risks to the outlook with a potential drag on the U.S. economy.

The Fed continued to stress that their interest-rate policy is not set in stone but remains data-dependent. While participants continued to expect that gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate, they emphasized that the timing and pace of adjustments will depend on future economic and financial-market developments and their implications for the medium-term economic outlook, the minutes said.

The Fed even broached the idea of delaying its plan for four rate hikes this year, as bankers discussed altering their earlier views of the appropriate path for the target range for the federal funds rate.

Bank says slow rate path to support gold: The gist of the minutes are that rate hikes are increasingly off the table. And that easy-money likelihood is one reason by the Singapore bank DBS Group Holdings Ltd. is maintaining an overweight outlook on gold.

Volatility in financial markets due to the Chinese/global slowdown and low oil prices and doubts regarding the effectiveness of monetary easing could continue, said DBS strategist Manish Jaradi. This could keep risk appetite in check and U.S. dollar rates low, supporting gold.

The sharp scaleback in U.S. Fed rate hike expectations and negative rates elsewhere suggests a low for longer theme is back in focus, Jaradi wrote. With inflation expectations stable in the U.S., declining real yields could aid gold. Having said that, gold looks overbought in the near term.

Gold proves value as haven: Despite Chinas extreme debt and banking problems, a more optimistic mood took hold among equities this week, thus dampening golds fire. And that makes sense, because gold has been surging as stocks have tumbled this year.

Gold reaffirmed its appeal as a haven, with the metals inverse relationship to global stocks the strongest in more than four years, Bloomberg noted. Its correlation to the MSCI All World Country Index over 30 days registered -0.487, the largest negative reading since 2011. A measure of -1 indicates the two values move in opposition to each other all the time.

The S&P 500 and other indexes rose Wednesday despite a host of recession-suggestive data on the U.S. economy, including a drop in housing starts and permits, a third consecutive monthly decline in industrial production, a spike in core PPI inflation, continued danger signs in the gold-oil price ratio, a plunge in homebuilder confidence, growing debt woes for oil producers, and the seventh straight decline in the Empire Feds manufacturing gauge.

Given the above avalanche of negative U.S. economic data, which is just a tip of the iceberg, investors have to ask themselves: Is the worst really over for the global economy and stocks in particular? Any objective interpretation of the financial landscape should produce the answer no. In that case, golds run isnt over, and investors should be fortifying positions in safe-haven assets while prices are still relatively low compared with their upside potential.

The World Gold Councils latest report shows that the momentum gold has shown so far in first-quarter 2016 had been building since at least the fourth quarter of 2015.

Were not here to argue whether the WGC has accurately accounted for the totality of gold consumption around the world. Some respected experts, for instance, say the WGC has been underestimating the extent of true demand in China which they say actually could exceed WGC estimates.

But what the latest Gold Demand Trends report does confirm is that gold demand is healthy and rising. Gold demand in the fourth quarter increased 4% year-on-year to a 10-quarter high of 1,117.7t. Full-year demand was virtually unchanged, down just a fraction (-14t) to 4,212t. Weakness in the first half of the year was cancelled out by strength in the second half.

That late-year surge is consumption is attributed to two major drivers: investment demand and central-bank buying.

Investment demand surged 15% in 4Q: Overall investment demand in 2015 grew by 8% versus 2014 totals. Bar and coin consumption rose modestly, while outflows from gold ETFs slowed. Golds momentum clearly started to build in the fourth quarter, which saw investment demand grow by 15% versus the same period in 2014.

Meanwhile, central-bank purchases remain a huge support for gold prices as these entities buy bullion to hedge against the currency wars and devaluations running rampant in Europe, Japan, and elsewhere.

Net purchases by central banks and official institutions surged in the second half of 2015 resulting in the second highest annual demand in our records, the WGC reported.

Central banks net purchases ended the year strongly at 167.2t in Q4, up 25% from 133.9t in the same period of 2014. This brought net purchases for 2015 to an impressive588.4t, 1% higher than 2014s chunky total of 583.9t. The annual total was significantly higher than our initial expected range of 400-500t, and comfortably towards the top end of our revised expectation of 500-600t. This shows that the pivotal change in 2010 from net sellers to net purchases has staying power.

Mine production slipping: Russia and China led the charge in acquiring gold on a bulk scale. And while demand from official sectors remained high, supply is shrinking, falling by 4% in 2015, its lowest level since 2009.

Mine production in 2015 saw its first quarterly decline and its slowest annual growth rate since 2008, the WGC noted. Annual gold recycling dropped again, hitting its lowest level since 2007. With mine production expected to fall in the next year, supply will remain constrained.

Looking back at the final quarter of 2015, one can more readily understand from these supply-and-demand trends why gold has taken off in early 2016. Add to the picture the global decline of stocks into bear territory, Chinas deepening economic slowdown, and plummeting oil prices as both a cause and symptom of the current bleak financial landscape and its logical to project that the WGCs assessment of first-quarter 2016 gold demand will be even more markedly bullish.

Gold got a little overheated during last weeks monster run above $1,260, so the price decline Monday to around $1,209 was unsurprising as shorter-term traders booked profits and Chinas Lunar New Year buying peaked.

Gold does not have to zoom to $1400/oz in the next few months to validate the new bull market, observed Jordan Roy-Byrne of The Daily Gold. Its more important that it holds above $1200/oz in the weeks ahead.

And so far its doing that. In any other currency than the U.S. dollar, its already in a bull market, noted Robin Griffiths of The ECU Group, predicting a run back to $1,300.

Banks new target is $1,250: Golds lightning-fast resurgence has now forced another big bank to upwardly revise its forecast. Gold has once again become the main risk barometer for global markets, Saxo Bank commodities strategist Ole Hansen said. Traders were caught completely unprepared as the focus at the beginning of the year was on the speed and size of U.S. rate hikes. Due to this, funds were underinvested and as the sentiment changed they were left scrambling to get out of short and back into new long positions.

As a result, we maintain our bullish view on gold, he added.I see gold spending the coming weeks in a range around $1,200/oz as weak longs create downside pressure, which in turn will be met by buying from those missing the initial rally. Thus, Saxo has now raised its year-end target from $1,200 to $1,250.

3 reasons to choose gold: Here are three more reasons why investors should take advantage of Monday price dip:

1. Recession dangers rising: Despite Mondays strong stock performance, recessionary winds are still blowing hard. Japans economy contracted by 1.4% in the fourth quarter, and Chinas latest falling import-export volumes also confirmed the ongoing slowdown. Banker William White of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, who predicted the 2008 crisis, is repeating warning that things are headed south again. At each stage whats been happening is the imbalances in the global economy have been getting worse and worse, he said.

   And the U.S. wont be immune to these deflationary forces, according to Cornerstone Macro technical analyst Carter Worth, who is seeing high recession odds.

   History tells us that when certain asset classes are acting a certain way, specifically right now gold, utilities, Treasury bonds and spreads and theyre happening after great periods of advanced restraint, theres something there, Worth told CNBC. This is not a good setup. Its very hard to reverse it.

2. Desperate central banks mull negative rates: Deutsche Bank, whose financial stability in recent months has been called into question, has issued its own warning about stocks, saying the bear market will continue unless the Federal Reserve takes action. Without policy intervention, there is more downside risk for equities, the bank said in a note titled The smell of default on Monday. We will likely need to see a Fed relent (on raising interest rates), leading to a sustainable drop in the dollar, higher oil prices and reduced energy balance sheet stress.

   Other major central banks are already throwing in the towel. Japan imposed negative interest rates in January, and European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi declared Monday that his bank will not hesitate to act at its March meeting.

   Despite 637 interest-rate cuts since Bear Stearns imploded in March 2008 and $12.3 trillion in quantitative easing globally, central banks have very little to show for their easy-money policies. Growth is anemic at best, and the world seemingly is falling into another economic abyss.

   As a result, forget about the highly anticipated tightening cycle expected from some major central banks, including the Fed. The worlds most powerful central banks will be forced to tear up their plans following the carnage that has engulfed financial markets since the beginning of the year, Londons Telegraph reported. Investors now believe there will not be a single interest rate rise from any of the G7 group of central banks this year, while the number of expected rate cuts this year has increased from zero to six, it added, citing a Danske Bank analysis.

   Whats left now for central banks to do but impose negative interest rates? Negative interest rates may herald new danger for financial markets, a separate Telegraph analysis read. However, they could just be the catalyst to jolt politicians and governments into finally making use of their massive fiscal policy tools to rescue the world from the grips of another slump.

   What are negative rates? Negative interest rates are simple to explain: People put their money into a bank or U.S. government securities and instead of getting interest on that deposit, they have to pay a fee for the privilege, wrote John Crudele of The New York Post. However, if the Fed decides to go the way of Japan and some European countries in charging savers for the safekeeping of their money, expect massive backlash.

   Not only a backlash against the Fed, but a major flight into cash and other hard assets considered safe, such as gold and silver bullion plus rare coins.

   The Fed so far is sticking to its rate-hike guns while only dancing around the notion of negative rates, but probably not for long. Part of the problem is that it is consistently wrong, said Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon. The Fed doesnt seem to recognize how terrible their forecasts have been.

3. Syrian conflict could widen into all-out war: You likely havent been hearing much about it in the mainstream news, but the Syrian conflict has the potential to escalate into a massive outbreak of hostilities. Russias prime minister last week warned Saudi Arabia and Turkey against sending troops and/or arms into Syria.

   All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table instead of unleashing yet another war on Earth, Dmitry Medvedev told a German newspaper. Any kinds of land operations, as a rule, lead to a permanent war.

   The Americans and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war? Do they think they can really quickly win it? It is impossible, especially in the Arab world. Everyone is fighting against everyone there.

   For more on a massive military exercise getting under way in northern Saudi Arabia and involving not only Saudi troops but also those from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia, and other, see this post from The Economic Collapse blog.

   Needless to say, the outbreak of wider war wont be good for business as usual, and thats yet another reason to hedge against the unexpected with gold. As former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan has noted, gold is a go-to currency during wartime: Gold, and to a lesser extent silver, are the only major currencies that dont require a third-party credit guarantee. Gold is inbred in human nature. Gold is special. For more than two millennia, gold has had virtually unquestioned acceptance as payment to discharge an obligation. Remember, Germany could not import any goods in the last part of World War II unless it paid in gold.

Recession, money printing, and the potential for a widespread explosion in the Middle East between superpowers and their proxies: The reasons to hold gold have not loomed this large in a long time, and thats why the recent price pullback near $1,209 could be a major buying opportunity for longer-term investors.

Theyre tiny coins worth big money. Thats what the first sale of Tom Reynolds collection of large cents proved Jan. 31 when 332 cents (plus two limited-edition catalogs) brought in almost $6.5 million. Thats a rough average of about $19,000 per coin. The value of the entire collection is estimated at more than $10 million altogether.

Reynolds began collecting coins in the 1950s and became more serious in later decades, specializing in copper coins. His career in the insurance industry eventually gave way to full-time pursuit of his investments of passion: numismatic coins. He decided to sell the collection before his death rather than leave the task to his heirs.

The Jan. 31 sale included Flowing Hair cents, Draped Bust cents, Classic Head cents, and Liberty Cap cents. Several of his top coins broke the six-figure barrier. Here are some of the standout specimens, each carrying an added 17.5% buyers fee:

A 1793 Flowing Hair Wreath cent, an S-9 Vine and Bars Edge certified at MS65+ Brown PCGS with CAC sticker, commanded $193,875.

A 1793 Flowing Hair Chain cent (Sheldon 2 variety), graded as AU53 PCGS with CAC sticker, brought in $141,000.

A 1793 Wreath cent, S-10 R4, Vine and Bars Edge, graded at MS64 Brown plus CAC sticker, won a bid of $92,500.

An 1809 Classic Head cent, S-280 R2 Large 9 over Small 9, graded by PCGS as MS64 Brown with CAC sticker, topped its category with a winning bid of $110,000.

A 1795 Liberty Cap cent, S-76b R1 Plain Edge, certified MS66 BR by PCGS with CAC sticker, drew a winning bid of $67,500.

An 1801 Draped Bust cent, certified as MS64 Red Brown by PCGS, snagged a winning bid of $97,500.

A 1798 Draped Bust cent, S-155 R3 Style I Hair, Small 8, Reverse of 1795, graded by PCGS at MS65 Brown, also snagged a bid of $97,500.