Morgan dollar proof snags almost $100,000
Posted onIn another sign of growing interest in top rarities, an 1895 Morgan Dollar proof from the Kling Family Collection made a serious run at the six-figure mark, selling for $96,937.50 in January.
Certified at Proof 67 Ultra Cameo by NGC, the coin is a particular rarity because no circulated Morgans are believed to have been produced at the Philadelphia Mint that year or at least none survive. Only 880 proofs were struck in Philly, while the New Orleans Mint produced 450,000 circulating Morgans and the San Francisco Mint created 400,000.
Coronet Morgans shine: The January sale follows the strong performance of 32 Morgan Dollars from the Coronet Collection in October, led by an MS66 1901 Morgan that sold for $587,500. Meanwhile, an 1895-O Morgan certified as PCGS MS65 with green CAC sticker brought in $211,500; an 1894 Morgan, rated as PCGS MS66+ and sporting a CAC sticker, commanded $152,75; and a 1921-D Morgan, certified at MS67 by PCGS with CAC sticker, got $30,550.
Are you looking for a top-quality Morgan Dollar for your collection? Blanchard and Company has a prize specimen in stock now: a 1904-S Morgan Dollar.
Make this prized Morgan your own: This coin has the distinction of having been minted in the last consecutive year of the series production, 1904. Morgan Dollars would not be produced again until 1921, its swan-song year that also birthed the Peace Dollar.
This Morgan Dollar is a standout survivor. The San Francisco Mint produced about 2.3 million that year, fewer than either the Philadelphia Mint (2.78 million) or the New Orleans Mint (3.72 million). Most were shipped east for storage in federal vaults, and few completed the cross-country trip without damage. This coin is one of the exceptions. Boasting a super-rare MS65 grade, this jewel of a Morgan also ups the ante with a green CAC sticker.
The 1904-S would be recognized as one of the rarer issues, one respected numismatist noted. Most specimens seen today are in lower grade ranges from MS60 to 63. MS64 coins are scarce, and MS65 coins are rare. He estimated that only a few hundred survive in MS65 or better state. Call Blanchard and Company now for more information.
Our $19 trillion debt nightmare: Another excuse for negative rates
Posted onEver since the Bank of Japan shocked global markets by introducing a negative-interest-rate policy last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been forced to broach the subject of whether it too will go negative rather than continue the rate-hiking trajectory it started in December.
During a speech Monday at the Council on Foreign Relations, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer stated that negative rates are working more than I can say I expected in 2012, alluding to other nations that have imposed them, and he emphasized that the central bank would remain data-dependent in its rate-setting decisions.
Stress tests to gauge negative rates: Moreover, the Fed announced that in its annual stress test on banks, it would examine the effect of negative rates as a factor. As interest rates turn negative around the world, the Federal Reserve is asking banks to consider the possibility of the same happening in the U.S., Bloomberg reported. The Fed said it will assess the resilience of big banks to a number of possible situations, including one where the rate on the three-month U.S. Treasury bill stays below zero for a prolonged period.
The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities, the Fed said last week.
U.S. reaches grim milestone: One reason for negative rates here in the U.S. is that growth appears to be slowing. Fourth-quarter GDP came in at a measly 0.7%, while the Atlanta Fed is estimating first-quarter GDP at a mere 1.2%. Deutsche Bank has announced that it thinks the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 46%, considerably higher than the Feds model it examined.
But theres another reason why the Fed might be pushing for negative rates. Look no further than a grim milestone that the U.S. reached last week, on Jan. 29: The federal government breached the $19 trillion national debt mark for the first time in American history, hitting $19.012 trillion.
It took a little more than 13 months for the debt to climb by $1 trillion, The Washington Examiner observed. The national debt hit $18 trillion on Dec. 15, 2014.
By suspending the debt ceiling last November, Congress has issued itself an unlimited credit card. That suspension will continue until 2017, when a new president will be in office. But the damage has already been done: The debt has an increased by more than $8 trillion since Barack Obama assumed the top job in January 2009, when the total debt was just $10.6 trillion.
Debt-to-GDP running high: The Congressional Budget Office is expecting the national debt to reach $22.6 trillion by 2020 and $29.3 trillion by 2026.
This means that if the nominal U.S. GDP as of Dec. 31 which was $18.12 trillion grows at the 1.2% rate expected by the Atlanta Fed, total debt to GDP is now on pace to hit 105% at the next GDP tabulation, and rising fast from there, Zero Hedge noted.
To provide context to these eye-popping numbers, the U.S. didnt hit the $1 trillion debt mark until Oct. 22, 1981, while $10 trillion was reached on Sept. 30, 2008.
What do we have to show for this?: Less than eight years after hitting $10 trillion, the U.S. government reports that it hit the $19 trillion mark, wrote Simon Black of the Sovereign Man site. But what do they have to show for it? Its not like anyone defeated the Nazis or Soviet Union over the last 8 years.
By 2008 the banks had been bailed out, and the world had supposedly been saved. Where did all the money go? What real, tangible results do they possible have to justify the last $9 trillion in debt?
Gold, debt likely to resume tandem: The sad, or infuriating, answer is that we have very little to show for all this debt. And when debts cant be repaid, they wont be. Bankrupt governments historically either impose austerity on their citizens by cutting benefits or else inflate away the value of the currency to offset the debt.
Gold remains time-tested protection from this insane government spending. Between 2009 and 2013 spot gold was closely correlated to growth in the Feds balance sheet, according to a post at the Valuewalk. Between 2000 and 2013 spot gold was closely correlated to growth in U.S. Federal debt levels and limits. We have always regarded the gaping divergence since 2013 between these two series and spot gold prices as a great mystery. Nonetheless, we expect these traditional correlations to revert toward longstanding means. Because we expect the Feds balance sheet and the U.S. federal debt limit to prove sticky downward in future periods, prospects for reversion strongly favor higher gold prices.
One cant change economic laws. Debt is not money; gold is money. Running up the national credit card can only end badly. Imposing negative interest rates is not a solution to the governments insatiable spending habit, nor is inflation, while austerity has the potential to incite significant social unrest in a nation where so many of its citizens are dependent on checks from Uncle Sam. Investors need protect themselves with gold now while there is still a lull between the yellow metal and its positive correlation to the escalating U.S. debt.
Gold is 2016s most beloved asset, CNN confirms
Posted onThe continuing collapse in oil prices slammed stocks again Tuesday, with the Dow Jones down more than 300 points.
In contrast, gold held its ground once more, slipping slightly to just under three-month highs after touching $1,131, its strongest price since Nov. 3. Silver, meanwhile, was trading near $14.33.
Gold has paused to consolidate near $1,128 just below its 200-day moving average near $1,132, Colin Cieszynski of CMC Markets told MarketWatch, adding that the next resistance level for gold would be in the $1,150 to $1,155 area.
Next target $1,150 or above: It is perfectly possible that it will move towards $1,150 and then it will depend on the equity markets, Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke told Reuters. “Clearly this is an environment that is supportive for gold in the short term.”
So much so that it could even go higher. Around $1,160 is around my objective on the upside, trader Jim Iuorio told CNBC. Weve got negative rates all over the place. It costs less to hold gold when interest rates are as low as they are. It seems like the 10-year yields here are just going lower and lower. The stock markets getting hit; it seems like an unsafe place to be. Gold is getting a little bit of its shine back.
ETF racks up hot streak: Gold ETF investors apparently agree with Iuorio, with holdings in the largest such fund, the GLD, gaining for the 11th straight session, the longest streak in three years. It looks like there’s some flight back into safety, Phil Streible at RJO Futures said. Gold is getting a nice bid as ETF holdings are near a three-month high.
Other major gold ETF’s also are seeing strong inflows. Its clear that the precious metals appeal as the ultimate safe haven now extends well beyond the universe of dollar-doubters and doomsayers otherwise known as gold bugs, Bloomberg admitted.
Gold outpacing equities: With January now over, CNN also joined the chorus of media organizations that have been forced to concede that the yellow metal is a winner so far this year. With about a 6% gain so far, gold is 2016s most beloved asset, its headline read.
As we have seen stock markets around the world tumble dramatically, the need to protect capital has increased and gold has benefited from that, Juan Carlos Artigas of the World Gold Council told the network.
A good shot gold hits $2,000: In contrast to most commodities such as oil, which have struggled amid the global economic slowdown, gold has thrived. Gold is the winner of that game because it has the least industrial use so its least affected by the global slowdown, added Axel Merk of Merk Investments.
CPM Group Jeff Christian is among those experts who think that gold remains in a long-term secular bull market despite the bear stretch of the past several years. He now thinks the bottom is here for gold and silver. Joe McAlinden of McAlinden Research recently weighed in with another bullish forecast. I think gold is going to be heading back to where it was before and then possibly to new highs, he told Bloomberg. There’s a good shot gold gets back to $2,000 or hits $2,000 in the next couple of years. I’m a longer-term investor by and large.
For short-term investors, golds resurgence in 2016 is a reason for optimism. For longer-term investors, the picture looks even brighter as the economic recovery that was supposed to be taking shape has now given way to China’s sputtering economy and plunging oil prices both of which suggest deflation is taking hold. With talk of negative interest rates on everyone’s lips, the case for gold is only getting stronger as the year progresses.
Might Federal Reserve Tightening Be Over For 2016?
Posted onThe financial market volatility about which Blanchard and Company has warned is now here in spades in 2016, and its led to a considerable amount of rethinking in and outside of Washington. One interesting notion that some Federal Reserve governors have recently presented is that the U.S. dollars 15% to 20% appreciation (or even more, depending on the metric) in the past 18 months is about the equivalent, in terms of effects on GDP and inflation, of a rise in the federal funds rate of a full percentage point even after taking into account the dramatic fall in oil prices!
With that realization setting in, the three to four interest-rate increases the Fed has signaled for this year likely will be reduced, especially if incoming economic data continue to suggest slow growth at best and begin to instill greater fear into financial markets. The Feds rate policy and its effect on the U.S. also carry serious political ramifications heading into the presidential election.
Right now theres no telling what policymakers on the Feds Federal Open Market Committee will do, and they are likely not anywhere close to a consensus. At best, the economic forecasts and interest-rate projections of the FOMC are ultimately pure guesses, said then-Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher in a 2012 posting on The Wall Street Journals Real Time Economics blog.
Those of us who lived through the 2008 financial debacle understand the importance of having a proactive plan to help overall portfolios limit their downside risk to pure guesses by the Fed. The collapse in the markets triggered a rush to safe-haven assets like gold, and intense demand and limited supplies energized an already-established bull market that saw the price peak at all-time nominal highs in 2011. Just as in 2008, if todays stock-market collapse continues, you likely will have a very short window in which to buy bullion assets at reasonable market prices. After that window closes, it will become much more expensive and difficult to help you safeguard your assets with gold.
Oklahoma to debate creating its own gold, silver bullion depository
Posted onThe urgency of keeping physical gold and silver bullion close at hand has only grown more intense in recent years as central banks race to the bottom to destroy their currencies in order to stay competitive in global trade.
Blanchard and Company has chronicled how central banks, particularly those in Russia and China, are beefing up their bullion reserves. Others, like Germany’s, are recalling their gold from third-party storage, no longer satisfied with having their national treasure locked up thousands of miles away, sometimes across oceans.
Following Texas’ lead: And here in the United States, Texas is moving in a similar direction, last year passing a law to recall the states bullion from vaults in New York. Its storage solution? To build its own depository within its own borders.
Now its neighbor to the north, Oklahoma, also could be casting its vote for precious metals. A bill pre-filed in the Oklahoma House would create a state gold depository, an important first step toward establishing gold and silver as commonly used legal tender in the state, reported the 10th Amendment Center.
Bullion for transactions: The bill would result in the opening of the Oklahoma Bullion Depository, which would serve as the custodian, guardian and administrator of gold, silver and other precious metals transferred or acquired by the state, or an agency, political subdivision or other instrumentality of the state. The depository would also accept deposits of gold and silver by private individuals.
The bill also sets the stage for gold and silver to become acceptable mediums of exchange in financial transactions. In short, a person will be able to deposit gold or silver and pay other people through electronic means or checks in sound money.
Dollars long-term path is down: The bill thus offers a rock-solid alternative to citizens who are worried about the direction of the U.S. dollar as represented by the Federal Reserves currency notes. Although the dollar has strengthened considerably in the wake of a nascent global financial crisis stemming from China’s slow down and the new oil bust, the greenbacks long-term trajectory is down, having lost more than 90% of its purchasing power since the Feds creation in 1913.
The Oklahoma bill going up for debate is a welcome advance toward returning to the gold- and silver-backed currency that our Founding Fathers intended, and its also a vote for state sovereignty by moving to store Oklahoma’s wealth where it belongs: in Oklahoma.
Gold American Eagle coin sales up 53% as bullion climbs in January
Posted onIn case you havent heard the news, theres a move on among the global intelligentsia to abolish physical cash, but huge segments of people around the world still arent buying that notion. Hence, gold and silver both enjoyed a standout start to 2016, propelled in part by sales of physical bullion.
Havent heard about the cashless society yet? Were inching closer to that target now that the Bank of Japan has imposed negative interest rates and a new Bloomberg editorial announced, Bring on the cashless future. The goal is to hand absolute control of your money to the central bankers, who then digitize it and force you to spend it under their negative-rate regime, all the while tracking your every purchase.
Gold kicks off 2016 up 5%: But critics arent having it, and their numbers are growing. Thats one reason why gold and silver were among the best-performing assets this past January. The yellow metal finished the month up about 5%, while silver returned about 3%.
And investors who understand the importance of physical bullion ownership helped power a robust month of coin sales at the U.S. Mint.
The Mint saw its January sales of 2016 gold American Eagle coins rise 53% over those in January 2015, with 124,000 ounces purchased.
As for gold American Buffalo coins, 32,500 were sold, jumping nearly 22 times higher than in December but slipping from January 2015 by 2,000 coins or 5.8%, Coin News noted.
Silver Eagles beating 2015 sales: Meanwhile, silver American Eagle coins also remain in hot demand despite being effectively rationed under an allocation program in place since mid-2015. Almost 6 million ounces of silver Eagles (5.95 million) were gobbled up in January 2016; thats 7.7% higher than January 2015s total and more than 153% above Decembers tally.
Commenting on Januarys gold Eagle statistics, Adam Hamilton of Zeal Research speculated that these surging gold bullion-coin sales could prove a very bullish leading indicator for gold. The last time the U.S. Mints gold American Eagle sales soared dramatically year-over-year was in 2009, paving the way for golds awesome 29.7% gain in 2010.
Moreover, Hamilton correctly observed that despite the resurgent American Eagle demand last year, Americans remain radically underinvested in gold.
ETF buying signals sentiment shift: That underinvestment could be changing, however. Gold also has enjoyed a tailwind from increasing investment in gold exchange-traded funds. Although not as good as personal ownership of physical bullion, ETF sales are important because they are a sign of interest from Wall Street and retail investors.
According to financial blogger and technician Dan Norcini, rising purchases of gold ETFs are suggesting a bullish shift in sentiment for gold.
The reported gold holdings in GLD are steadily increasing, he wrote. In 2015, from the start of the year, gold holdings increased over 64 tons in GLD until they topped out in the middle of February. From that point, through the rest of the remaining year, reported holdings then steadily declined as did the price of gold.
In 2016, to date, gold holdings in the ETF have also increased by a bit less than 27 tons. That is certainly constructive as it indicates RISING FAVORABLE SENTIMENT towards gold. Bulls should welcome this development while Bears should understand it and RESPECT it.
And those who would debase away the value of cash and digitize currencies also should respect the meaning of golds resurgence so far in 2016.
Gold, silver have bottomed, CPM Group chief says
Posted onCPM Group is one of the leading precious-metals consultancies in the world today, publishing widely followed overviews such as the Gold Yearbook, the Silver Yearbook, and the Platinum Yearbook.
CPM managing partner Jeffrey Christian recently appeared on the Investing News Network to issue a mildly bullish forecast for precious metals in 2016.
Christian has been a source of controversy among some hardcore gold bugs who say he understates the true massive extent of gold demand in China and has been negative on the metals prospects.
Differences over Chinese demand: Respected gold blogger Koos Jansen is one of Christians critics. Jansen helped bring the Shanghai Gold Exchanges withdrawals data to the forefront for those seeking to get a handle on Chinese bullion demand, arguing that Chinese demand is much greater than is being reported by mainstream media.
In a recent presentation Jansen argued that Chinese gold demand is not what mainstream consultancy firms (GFMS, WGC, Metals Focus, CPM Group) would like you to believe. In a nutshell Mr. Christian stated Chinese gold demand was roughly 933 tonnes (30 million ounces) in 2015, while I stated it was more like 2,000 tonnes, as China has imported roughly 1,400 tonnes, mined 450 tonnes and scrap was likely more than 150 tonnes for the year.
Pendulum shifting back to bulls: Time will tell just who is correct. But the important thing to note when taking Christians analysis into account is that he probably errs on the conservative side of the picture.
Thats why Christians interview ought to be seriously considered. In it, he argues that gold and silver prices have probably bottomed not that theyre headed to the moon tomorrow.
In 2010 we told our clients and the world that we thought that gold, silver, and commodities were heading toward a cyclical downturn within a secular bull market and that the prices could fall, probably peak around 2011 and fall for three to five years, he said.
They peaked in 2011, and were four years into that downward cycle. We think that gold and silver probably have fallen pretty much as low as they will, and were looking for them to bounce along the bottom and start to rise probably later this year, perhaps in conjunction with the U.S. presidential election, and rise in investor concern about some of the economic and political factors going on at that time.
Massive declines in mine output: In other words, Christian is no blind cheerleader for precious metals, nor is he a doom-and-gloomer. Just look at his opinions on the state of the global economy.
I think we will see a recession at some point, but it may well be 2018 or 2019 before we see it, he said, dismissing concerns that 2016 could be cataclysmic.
He also thinks the dollar will remain robust. Youll probably see the dollar continue to be strong. Again, it may not rise, but I dont necessarily see it falling sharply from where it is today, he said.
But despite that, Christian sees room for gold to keep appreciating. Although he doesnt believe in peak gold, Christian said we will see massive declines in production of copper, gold, silver, and other metals because of the cutbacks in exploration and development that weve seen since 2012, and its going to continue.
Silver could beat the S&P: Christian also is positive on where poor mans gold is headed. Were looking for silver to go up about 10% this year, he said. Thats only taking it to $15, which is where it was in the middle of last year, but thats a 10% return, which is probably better than youre going to do on the S&P.
Precious metals have bottomed, gold production is in decline, and silver could beat the S&P 500 those are forecasts that should hearten anyone looking for a rebound in the bullion sector. And if Christians forecasts err on the side of caution, then the upside could be even greater.
2 new rock-solid reasons for gold: Japans negative rates, falling U.S. GDP
Posted onWe already knew that gold was the standout asset class so far in 2016. The metal was trading just below three-month highs Friday afternoon, and two headlines from major news organizations confirm the obvious:
Gold heads for best month in a year as U.S. data disappoints, Reuters trumpeted, while Bloomberg seconded that emotion with the headline Gold triumphs among metals with best monthly rally in a year.
Now two head-turning surprises Friday suggest that the Federal Reserve would be crazy to continue with its announced policy to raise interest rates four times this year.
No. 1: The Bank of Japan, the Feds central-bank counterpart, shocked the world with the announcement that it is imposing negative interest rates for the first time ever.
To goal is to stimulate inflation by charging banks fees on deposits, which they then impose on their customers. Since holding cash in a bank is a money-losing proposition under this regime, bank depositors are then more likely to spend the cash throughout the economy, thus increasing monetary velocity and inflation.
Economic kamikaze under way: But critics of the move by Japan say its a bad idea. I think its economic kamikaze, Lindsey Group analyst Peter Boockvar told CNBC. Lets tax money and hope things get better. Lets create higher inflation for the Japanese people, who are barely seeing wage growth. And lets amp up the currency battles, and hope everything gets better. I think its insane. If this means now that theyre out of bullets with [quantitative easing], and this is their last hope, then I think this is a mess.
New currency wars looming: Credit Agricole analyst Valentin Marinov also sees the risk of increased money printing worldwide as other central bank follow suit to keep their own currencies competitive from a trade standpoint.
Given that the rate cut could fuel more global currency wars and global growth uncertainty, it need not necessarily support investors risk appetite, he wrote.
Its going to make it very hard for the Fed to be the sole holdout, the one thats hiking while everyone else is cutting below zero, added Aaron Kohli of BMO Capital Markets. Up until now, we had hoped wed see some stability in foreign-exchange rates, and we wouldnt see further pressure of the disinflationary kind from abroad.
Rate-hike odds fall with U.S. GDP: And already, fed fund futures are signaling that the odds of a Fed rate hike are now falling. The CME Groups FedWatch tool also sees little chance for rate hikes this year.
No. 2: The fourth-quarter estimate for U.S. GDP was abysmal, expanding just 0.7%.
Thats a big slowdown from 2% growth in the fall and 3.9% last spring, thanks to sluggish consumer spending, slowing exports, and a stronger dollar.
The economy perhaps isnt quite as strong as we thought it was, said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc.
Inflation expectations falling: In fact, the last time that the University of Michigan consumer confidences inflation expectations were this low was September 2010, when Bernanke hinted at QE2 at Jackson Hole, Zero Hedge noted.
And according to West Shore Group exec Jim Rickards, the chances of a recession are growing if the Fed insists on hiking rates.
The Fed is tightening into weakness, thats clear; youre not supposed to tighten into weakness; youre supposed to ease when you have weakness, he told Bloomberg. This will rank up there with what they did in 1929 and other Fed blunders along the way; theres certainly been a lot of them.
In a recession or close to it: The Feds still on track, in their view, to raise four times this year. They wont get there. I think theyll raise twice: definitely in March, maybe in June. Well see about June. By the summer even the Fed will realize were in a recession or close to it and I think theyll turn around. …
Inflations actually been going down. Now when you raise rates, what do you do? You strengthen the dollar, which imports deflation. So you have a goal of inflation, but youre on a path to create deflation. How does that make sense
Theyre doing a good job of causing a recession. I think the recession was on the way anyway. The Fed accelerated that. Thats why I call it a blunder. The U.S. has become a sponge for all the deflation in the world.
Fed itself could follow Japan: Chances are good that if the economic damage weve seen so far continues to unfold in 2016, the Fed wont be hiking rates but might actually follow Japans lead into negative interest rates. Former Fed chief Ben Bernanke has already said as much, and so has current Chairwoman Janet Yellen.
I think negative rates are something the Fed will and probably should consider if the situation arises, Bernanke said last month.
Gold has been doing fine after the Feds first rate hike in December since the financial crisis thanks to the uncertainty that the removal of easy money has inflicted upon stocks. If the Fed is forced to reverse course and ease once more, it will be a colossal admission of failure and could ignite an incredible new stampede into gold.
Gold-oil ratio suggesting some type of market crisis, history shows
Posted onJeff Desjardins of the Visual Capitalist just released another stunning infographic titled Three major reasons for gold in 2016.
His first two reasons are; 1) Gold has produced over double the returns of the general market from 2008 to 2015; and 2) two-term presidents have historically seen the stock market sink significantly during their final year in office.
But the third reason is one that has been front and center in the markets for at least the past year: the collapse in oil prices.
Above 20 is warning sign: The gold-to-oil price ratio, or the number of barrels of oil that can be purchased with one ounce of gold, continues to signal danger, running between 37 and 40 in recent days. That means that one ounce of bullion can buy between 37 to 40 barrels of oil.
History shows that whenever the ratio is above 20, that there is some type of market crisis, Desjardins writes.
A recent Reuters article also explored the grim ramifications of the gold-oil ratio. Although historically a rising oil price has been beneficial for gold because of the inflationary implications, this time around bullion is moving higher as the fear traders pile in for safety.
Gold key for insurance: The fact that oil and other commodities have collapsed means the economy is in trouble, which should be positive for gold, Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said. I suspect that because there is uncertainty, gold will play a role as an insurance policy.
And Ava Trades chief market analyst Naeem Aslam added: We envisage that a bottom is firmly in place for gold. It could be the best performing commodity for this year.
One thing that the falling oil price will do is keep the Federal Reserves rate-hiking plans at bay or on hold. Zero Hedge just reported that oil inventories in the U.S. are now as high as they were during the Great Depression, in November 1930.
Wave of oil bankruptcies loom: And BlackRocks CEO, Larry Fink, is predicting a wave of bankruptcies across the energy sector as oil and gas firms go under. Bloomberg is projecting that independent American oil producers will report losses totaling $14 billion in all for 2015.
The end result of all this will be that the Fed not only will be forced to keep rates lower instead of hiking, but might in fact be forced to embark upon new rounds of quantitative-easing rescue programs.
They have said they thought they would raise four times plus this year and I dont think theres any scenario in my mind that theyll be able to do anything remotely like that, said University of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of President Obamas Council of Economic Advisers in 2010-11.
Its far more likely that theyll have to reverse themselves as a number of other countries have, like Sweden and others, where they raise the rates thinking itll be fine and then have to drop it.
Lower rates for longer is more monetary debasement, and that means more potential news for gold prices in the future.
Gold bull bets $13.5 million on 9% price rally by March
Posted onHigh-profile billionaires who have put their money where their mouths are by betting big on gold often make the news. When tried-and-true investing pros come out publically in favor of an asset class that is too often dismissed as a barbarous relic, such stances catch the attention of the stock cheerleaders in the financial media, who otherwise are prone to bash the yellow metal.
John Paulson, Paul Singer, Ray Dalio, George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, and David Einhorn are just a few of the billionaires in recent times whose large gold stakes or pro-gold statements have made headlines.
Huge options bet placed: This week, another presumably wealthy investor has caught the attention of the talking heads, although whether he or she is a billionaire remains to be seen. According to CNBC, on Tuesday, when gold gained more than 1%, one trader spent more than $13 million on a bet that the SPDR Gold ETF, the GLD, would rise to levels not seen since May 2015 in the next two months. Specifically, that trader purchased 75,000 of the March 108/117 call spreads for $1.80 each. Since each options contract accounts for 100 shares of stock, this is a $13.5 million bet that the GLD will rise more than 9% by March expiration.
This was the largest options trade in the whole market that day, RiskReversal.com founder Dan Nathan. What I find interesting about the trade is that its actually targeting a breakdown level from August and November.
Interest in gold ETF rising: The GLD is the largest gold-linked exchange-traded fund in the world and is a common security used by traders to attain exposure to the bullion price. Its also become popular among investors who want longer-term allocations to gold. However, investors shouldnt mistake owning a gold ETF for true ownership of the physical metal because its almost impossible to redeem shares for real bullion, among other shortcomings.
Still, renewed interest in gold ETFs often signals that mainstream investors who normally chase momentum stocks are reallocating toward safe havens. And in the past week, gold ETFs have been on a hot streak as stocks have struggled. Investors expanded holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products for an eighth day, the longest run in a year, Bloomberg reported.
No doubt, meat-and-potato stock investors will increasingly seek refuge in gold if equities continue to correct and lapse into bear territory. In the meantime, the anonymous traders ultra-bullish $13.5 million gold bet has us wondering: Does he/she know something that we dont?