Why the Shield Nickel Earned an Important Place in Numismatic History
Posted onAt the start of the Civil War, the United States government halted specie payments – or the mechanism by which citizens could turn in their paper money and redeem it for gold or silver. This led to widespread hoarding of gold and silver coins during the war and these coins disappeared from circulation.
In order to alleviate this crisis, Congress authorized the creation of five-cent coins made of a 75% copper-25% nickel blend.
Today known as the Shield Nickel – this prized coin marks the point in history when 5-cent coins stopped being minted as small silver disks and became the base metals coins they still are today.
The Shield Nickel was issued from 1866 through 1883 – and the series boasts two proof-only years (1877 and 1878). The Shield Nickel proofs can indeed be elusive for collectors to find and these years stand as one of the great classic rarities among the late 19th-century proof coins.
Mint Engraver James Barton Longacre designed the new nickel. The obverse features a large shield with arrows intertwined at its base. A lovely wreath hangs over the shield with a cross at the top. The date is marked at the bottom with the motto IN GOD WE TRUST in small letters around the top. On the coin’s reverse, a large numeral 5 is the feature, surrounded by 13 small stars and 13 glory rays as well. At the top reads the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA with the word CENTS at the bottom.
Mint officials discovered the hard way that the inclusion of the rays on the reverse was problematic due to the combination of metals. The copper and nickel together created a very hard planchet that was difficult to fully strike with the intended designs. To correct this problem, mint officials ordered the removal of the rays in mid-1867, creating two varieties: With Rays and No Rays. However, striking problems persisted, resulting in a series of coins noted for inconsistent strikes and die cracks.
For collectors interested in building a series of Shield Nickels, circulated coins and those in lower Mint State grades are relatively easy to obtain. However, gems are rare and the survivor rate for all years falls dramatically above the MS 66 level. The early mintages are fairly large, yet the series boasts tiny mintages as well which creates intrigue around building a complete set.
Is it an everlasting contribution to our nation’s coinage? Today, the Shield Nickel is the reason we refer to five-cent coins as nickels.
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How to Get a Coin Graded
Posted on — 26 CommentsEver wondered what your grandfather’s coin is worth? Inherited an interesting old coin collection? New to the numismatic world? Not to worry, coin grading is a process that involves several steps, but it’s fairly straightforward. With a lot of online resources, anyone can do it. And, of course, there’s also an app for that.
What Is Coin Grading?
First, what is coin grading? Grading is an industry term for determining the physical condition of a coin. As PCGS explains:
“Grading is a way of determining the physical condition of a coin. Grades range from Poor (almost completely worn out) to Perfect Uncirculated (a coin with absolutely no wear and no flaws of any kind). Over 99.9% of all coins fall somewhere between these two extremes.”
Uncirculated coins can also be referred to using another industry term, Mint State. That’s because they were carefully and properly stored since the moment they were minted. If the coin has been circulated for a short time but still looks new it’s graded as About Uncirculated.
Why You Want to Grade Your Coin
It’s simple: If you want to know how much the coin is worth you need to get it graded. Coin grading and authentication emerged as a solution to rampant counterfeiting and coin doctoring in the collectible coin industry. Depending on the type of coin, minute differences in grade can sometimes mean thousands of dollars difference in a coin’s market value.
A Word About the Sheldon Grading Scale
Until notable numismatist, Dr. William H. Sheldon, developed what is referred to as the Sheldon Scale in 1949, there were no industry standards for evaluating coins. What looked great to one dealer another would describe (and therefore the coin’s value) very differently.
The Sheldon grading scale determines the condition of a coin based on a 70-point system. Why 70 and not 100? We are not sure. Apparently, to Dr. Sheldon, a coin that received a “70” would be worth 70 times as much as a coin that received a “1.” Regardless, this grading system became the industry standard all reputable third-party coin certification companies use.
The ANA Grading Standards
The American Numismatic Association (ANA) also bases its coin grading standards largely on the Sheldon Scale but includes the addition of a clearly defined description of each numerical grade. Here’s a quick list of coin grades:
- Proof – (PF/PR): A specially made coin distinguished by sharpness of detail, minted primarily for collectors and not released for general circulation.
- Mint State (MS): A term interchangeably used with Uncirculated (UNC) to describe the coin without any trace of wear.
- Perfect Uncirculated (MS-70): The coin is in new condition showing no trace of wear. Very few regular-issue coins are ever found in this condition.
- Gem Uncirculated (MS-65 to MS-69): Very few signs of wear and contact marks.
- Choice Uncirculated (MS-63 to MS-64): Similar to GU above, but a grade lower, maybe lightly toned, with a few contact marks.
- Uncirculated (MS-60 to MS-62): No wear but has contact marks and maybe some spotting.
- Choice About Uncirculated (AU-55 TO AU-58): Light wear, but still in very good condition.
- About Uncirculated (AU-50 TO AU-53): Light wear, some luster remains.
- Choice Extremely Fine (XF-45 or EF-45): Light wear shows, but details are still clear. Minor mint luster is present.
- Extremely Fine (XF-40 or EF-40): The design is lightly worn throughout, but all features are clear and well-defined. Traces of luster may show.
- Choice Very Fine (VF-30 to VF-35): Light wear throughout, major features including lettering still visible but not clearly.
- Very Fine (VF-20 top VF-25): Moderate wear, major features including lettering still visible but not clearly.
- Fine (F-12 to F-15): Moderate to considerable even wear. The entire design is still visible but is worn.
- Very Good (VG-8 to VG-10): Well-worn with main features clear.
- Also Good (G-4 to G-6): Heavily worn, details not clearly visible.
- Also About Good (AG-3): Very heavily worn, with portions of the lettering, date, and legends worn smooth. The date is barely readable. Rims merge into the lettering.
- Fair (2): Most of the design details are worn completely smooth. Rims are flat or missing. May have serious nicks, dents, and defects.
- Poor (1): Only the basic coin type is identifiable. The date and mintmark must be strong enough to be readable. The entire surface is worn and may sport numerous blemishes.
The CGC Grading Scale
The Certified Guaranty Company (CGC) grading scale is another standardized system used to assess the condition and quality of coins. CGC is one of the leading independent grading services for coins, offering an unbiased and consistent method for determining a coin’s grade.
The scale ranges from 1 to 70, with each number corresponding to a specific level of preservation and visual appeal. Coins graded at the top of the scale, such as MS-70 or PR-70, are considered perfect, with no visible imperfections, while lower grades reflect varying degrees of wear, damage, or imperfections that have accumulated over time.
The CGC Grading Scale is divided into two primary categories: Mint State (MS) for uncirculated coins and Proof (PR) for specially minted coins with a higher level of detail. Mint State coins, such as MS-60 to MS-70, are further defined by their level of sharpness, luster, and the presence of any marks or abrasions. An MS-60 coin may show visible marks and wear, while an MS-70 will be flawless, often described as perfect.
On the other hand, Proof coins, which are struck using specially polished dies, range from PR-60 to PR-70, and their grade depends on their surface quality, design details, and overall appearance. A PR-70 coin is considered flawless, with sharp contrasts between the design and background fields.
Each grade on the CGC scale has its own detailed criteria, designed to ensure that coins are evaluated fairly and consistently. For example, a coin graded AU-50 (About Uncirculated) shows slight wear, usually on the high points of the design, while a coin graded VF-20 (Very Fine) will exhibit more noticeable wear, but its basic features will still be clearly visible. As the grade decreases, more wear and imperfections are present, with coins in Good (G-4) condition showing significant erosion of design details, but still identifiable as the original coin.
At first glance, the CGC and Sheldon grading scales may appear quite different due to their numerical ranges. The Sheldon Scale goes up to 70, while the CGC scale tops out at 10. However, when you look at the number of actual grades in use, the two systems are fairly similar. The CGC typically uses 25 grades, and the Sheldon Scale uses about 29, making them roughly comparable.
Why Grade Coins Professionally
If you are a coin collector, you can probably learn to grade your coins with some accuracy, but to get it authenticated, certified as genuine, and professionally graded requires the expertise and precision of experts.
With professional coin grading not only will you get peace of mind but the numeric grade assigned by experts will be recognized and accepted by dealers and collectors worldwide. Each coin is given a unique registration number which serves to catalog the coin at the grading service. It’s also sonically sealed in an archival acrylic holder to preserve its condition and permanently attest to its grade and its authenticity after grading.
Your Options for Coin Grading Services
The go-to in the industry are Professional Coin Grading Services (PCGS) and Numismatic Guaranty Company (NGC). They offer an unbiased appraisal of the condition or grade of each coin, which is accepted in the marketplace.
But there’s a new kid on the block. Certified Acceptance Corp (CAC) has refined their service, introducing CAC Grading.
This initiative started with an early launch in mid-June 2023, during which nearly 50,000 coins were certified. Grading was fully available by October 2023.
Previously, CAC was known for affixing green stickers to coins already graded by other services, indicating that the coin met their high standards. With the introduction of their own grading service, CAC now offers comprehensive authentication, grading, and encapsulation services. This move allows collectors and dealers to submit coins directly to CAC for evaluation, streamlining the process and potentially reducing costs associated with multiple submissions.
CAC will not be stickering coins any longer with their iconic green bubble. Instead, their new grading service adds more competition to the grading market, adding pressure to ensure that industry leaders maintain the standards collectors have come to expect.
How to ID a Coin: The DIY Approach
PCGS Photograde is a helpful tool to use when you want to identify your coin. It won’t give you the price, but it may help you get the necessary info for your submission form and avoid that pesky fee. We have used Photograde to drill down the images to ID our sample coin, and it was very easy. Turns out, we had an 1879 Morgan dollar MS65 on our hands (pictured, front and back). We found it on sale for $109.99 at the PCGS auction. Again, this is not grading, just identifying, and does not accurately reflect the condition or the value of the coin.
The Bottom Line
Three major factors determine the grade the coin will be awarded: how the coin was made, handled, and stored. The best-preserved coins tend to have the greatest value. You’ll want a professional to grade your coin, someone who can authenticate your coin and whose expert opinion is accepted in the marketplace.
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How the Gold Market has Changed Over the Last 30 Years
Posted on — 1 CommentRecently, the World Gold Council took a look back at the gold market over the last 30 years. Their analysis reveals how much the asset has changed technology, investment markets, and central bank activity across the globe.
Their research not only shows how gold has influenced the development of the modern world, but also offers clues on how that influence may continue.
Here, we offer a summary of their findings, which look at several factors including changing sources of demand, central bank use, and investment outcomes.
Global Production is Becoming More Diverse
“Diversification” could be used to describe several gold trends over the last 30 years. Consider that gold demand generated by jewelry and technology represented about 60% of gold demand over the decade spanning 1992-2002. Today, that number has dropped to about 44% of the annual average gold demand.
This trend toward diversification is present in other areas of the gold market. In the early 1990s Asia represented about 45% of total demand. This figure has since risen to 60%, an increase underpinned by the region’s economic growth over the decades.
Lastly, mine production has diversified. Gold production has become more evenly spread across mines located in Europe, Asia, North America, Africa, South America, and Oceania. As the World Gold Council reports, this is a benefit to gold because “dispersion allows for more stability in primary supply and reduces the risk of supply shocks, a feature already supported by gold’s abundant above-ground stock.”
The Global Financial Crisis Changed Gold
Before the global financial crisis of 2008, Europe was a net seller of gold. The combination of the global financial crisis and the following Sovereign Debt Crisis prompted investors to seek more reliable stores of wealth. Consequently, European investment demand increased over 500% to 238t year-over-year in 2008. While the surge was brought on by the crisis, the trend of strong investment demand has continued. Since 2008 demand in the region has averaged 242t per year.
Moreover, a key change to the financial market just prior to 2008 has made it easier to satisfy this demand. Gold ETFs became available in 2003 and have amassed approximately 3,473 tons over the last 20 years. Supplementing this, bar and coin demand remains robust globally and particularly in the European market which represents about 20% of the current demand for physical gold.
The Central Bank Becomes a Net Buyer of Gold
An interesting reversal occurred in 2010. Central banks became net buyers of gold after more than a decade of net selling activity. This earlier period of net selling was largely precipitated by a drive to reduce gold holdings in response to the end of the gold standard and the Bretton Woods system.
The reversal was due, in part, to the global financial crisis and growing purchases from emerging markets in tandem with slowing sales seen in Western markets. At the end of last year, global gold reserves reached 35,000t which accounts for 20% of the above-ground stock.
What it All Means for Investors
Diversified production and demand coupled with sustained European and central bank demand have all been supportive of gold’s outperformance, as measured by percent return, over other asset classes like global bonds, commodities, and US cash between 1992 and 2022.
Over the past three decades, the price of gold has increased more than six-fold with a 5.8% annualized return over that same period.
The data in the World Gold Council’s report brings new context to the role of gold in a period of persistent inflation, recession fears, and destabilizing geopolitical relations. Investors need a reliable store of wealth with substantial long-term return potential. Gold is the answer.
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Gold or Rare Coins: Which Is the Best Hedge Against Inflation
Posted on — 2 CommentsDid you see the latest inflation news? The Labor Department just released its revised estimates of the November and December Consumer Price Index (CPI).
What’s that you may ask? Revised data is kind of like a “do-over” for government economists.
Yet, often times these “revisions” don’t capture the big splashy headlines or coverage on the evening news like the first release. Yet, it’s important to pay attention. Why?
“U.S. monthly consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated and data for the prior two months was also revised up,” Reuters reported this week. The CPI climbed 0.1% in December instead of falling 0.1% as reported last month. CPI numbers for November were also revised higher to reveal inflation rising 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously estimated. In October, the CPI jumped 0.5%, which is also an upward revision from the previously reported 0.4% increase.
Translation: inflation is still rising and it’s worse than the government originally reported.
The new CPI data shows inflation is stubborn and not going away anytime soon. This poses a dilemma for investors today who seek to protect and grow their wealth during inflationary times. With inflation hitting a 40-year high in 2022, it’s worth examining the correlation of inflation to gold, rare coins, and stocks. Let’s dive in.
Digging Deep: Gold and Rare Coin Performance Data
As you invest in precious metals, there are many choices that offer the long-term investor an increased return and hedge against inflation, including gold bullion and rare coins. But which is better?
Drum roll, please. According to new research released in February 2023, rare coins are a better hedge against inflation than gold.
Yes, gold does act as an inflation hedge – and it’s a good one – but it turns out rare coins are even better.
What’s the worst? Stocks.
Here’s the data from a new report “The Investment Performance of Rare U.S. Coins” by Raymond E. Lombra, Ph.D., a professor of economics at Penn State University.
- From 1979-2022, gold produced an average annual return of 5.6%.
- Owning rare coins (all types MS65) nearly doubled an investor’s return at a 9.5% annual return over the same 44-year period.
- The best year percent return for gold stood at 100.2% and 198.8 for rare coins.
Investing tip: When an investor seeks to hedge against inflation, the goal is to find the asset with the highest positive correlation.
Looking at the same 44-year period from 1979-2022, coins revealed the largest highest positive correlation to inflation at .57. Gold revealed a .21 positive correlation and stocks only .10.
Here are the key takeaways:
- Including rare coins in a portfolio can improve investment performance.
- Including both gold and rare coins in a portfolio reduces overall volatility and reduces drawdowns.
- Rare coins are the best hedge against inflation. Gold also acts as a good hedge against inflation, while stocks are the worst.
Owning gold bullion is appropriate for all investors, and research shows it deserves a place in your well-diversified portfolio. Adding a rare coin component to your portfolio increases those benefits.
If you are searching for ideas on where to invest during these historic, inflationary times, call Blanchard today. We can help assess your long-term investment goals and give you personalized advice on a strategy to help you meet your financial objectives. We have been helping clients grow and preserve their wealth through diversification into tangible assets since 1975 and we can help you too.
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Five of the Most Interesting Rare U.S. Coins in the Smithsonian
Posted onThe National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian Museum in Washington D.C. is the home to the rarest of the rare coins in the world. The treasured collection houses more than 1.6 million monetary objects in total and is considered the largest collection of money in the world. The coins are sourced from every inhabited continent on the globe and span more than three millennia. Today we highlight five of the most interesting U.S. rare coins in the Smithsonian collection.
1. 1804 Silver Dollar
Although dated 1804, the silver dollars which bear this date were minted in 1834. President Andrew Jackson himself requested the U.S. Mint create these coins for diplomatic gifts to world leaders – gifts that would literally be fit for a king. Celebrating U.S. history, the front of the 1804 Silver Dollar features Liberty’s bust, the date “1804” and the word “liberty.” The back of the coin highlights an eagle and 13 stars that represent the original American colonies.
In November 1834, the Philadelphia Mint struck eight 1804-dated silver dollars for the gift sets. One was given to the Imam of Muscat and another to the King of Siam. The other six quickly landed in private collections and remain numismatic legends today. There are three ‘classes’ of these silver dollars and the Smithsonian owns all three varieties.
2. 1838-O Half Dollar Proof
In 1835, Congress made numismatic history with the establishment of three new U.S. mint branches. The first two facilities were at Charlotte, North Carolina and Dahlonega, Georgia, which were created to coin gold from nearby mining activity. The third branch at New Orleans was admittedly far from any mining activity, but as a major port of entry for gold and silver coin shipped in from Mexico and Latin America, it was well positioned to mint both gold and silver coins.
The 1838-O Half Dollar was the first coin struck at the New Orleans Mint – and only 20 coins were made as proofs. Yellow fever struck the New Orleans area and the rampant disease, combined with technical issues at the mint limited coin production that year. The result is a highly prized numismatic treasure in the 1838-O Half Dollar piece. The 1838-O Half Dollar from New Orleans is ultra-rare and historic. There are only eleven known survivors, one of them is housed at the Smithsonian and this coin is considered one of the most important American rarities in existence.
3. 1849 $20 Gold Coin
Before the California Gold Rush, the largest U.S. gold coin denomination was $10. Following the enormous amount of bullion that was coming out of California, a decision was made to authorize a new larger denomination coin: the Double Eagle. The artist, James B. Longacre, designed the new gold coin and, in late December, the first two pattern double eagles were struck at the Philadelphia Mint. There remain questions on whether the second 1849 $20 pattern coin was actually struck as there is no evidence in the numismatic community today about its whereabouts.
Widely considered to be the most valuable coin in the world, the 1849 $20 gold coin housed at the Smithsonian is the first Double Eagle and the only one with known whereabouts. As the story goes, in 1909, J.P. Morgan unsuccessfully offered to pay the then enormous sum of $35,000 for this gold coin in the Mint Collection. It has been estimated if this coin were up for auction today it would sell for a multi-million dollar amount.
4. 1907 Saint-Gaudens Ultra High Relief Double Eagle $20 Pattern
Quite simply, President Theodore Roosevelt wasn’t happy with the nation’s coinage. As the story goes, at a Washington dinner party one evening, Roosevelt tasked Augustus Saint-Gaudens, a brilliant sculptor of that time, to redesign America’s gold coins. Both men admired Greece’s ancient coins and agreed that U.S. gold coins developed in that fashion would be a monumental achievement. This coin was the result of those endeavors. Today, the Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle is often considered the most beautiful American coin ever made.
Fewer than 24 of these pattern coins were struck with the ultra-high relief, which were never meant for circulation. The minting process was complicated due to the unusually high relief featured on the pattern coins. It took nearly a dozen tries through the hydraulic coining press to achieve the ultra-high results. In 1907, President Roosevelt surprised his daughter with this pattern coin as a Christmas gift. Later, in 1961, Roosevelt’s daughter donated this coin to the Smithsonian.
5. 1913 Liberty Head Nickel
Last, but not least, the 1913 Liberty Head Nickel is one of the most celebrated coins of the 20th century. Only five are known to be in existence today and one is at the Smithsonian.
These nickels come with a bit of intrigue and scandal. In 1912, the U.S. Mint retired the Liberty Head Nickel and replaced it with the Indian Head Nickel design. However, five Liberty Nickels were still secretly struck. The existence of the coins remained a secret until 1919 when the statute of limitations for prosecuting the mint official expired.
It became public that Samuel W. Brown, of North Tonawanda, New York, had possession of the five nickels. He had previously served as Storekeeper of the Mint. Despite already having them, Brown placed an advertisement in the periodical: The Numismatist, offering to pay $500 each for 1913 Liberty Head Nickels. Later he raised the offer to $600. Brown knowingly was creating hype around these coins, which he later displayed at the 1920 ANA convention before selling the pieces to a Philadelphia dealer.
All five of these legendary coins are among the greatest numismatic treasures in the Smithsonian collection, which continue to be studied and enjoyed by visitors from around the world.
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The Original Meme: Hard Times Tokens
Posted onDesperate times call for desperate measures. And hard times call for Hard Times Tokens.
Hard Times Tokens were copper tokens that were either one cent or half a cent in value. These pieces served as unofficial currency between 1833 and 1843. The coins were privately minted in response to an ongoing shortage of small changes in the US resulting from an economic depression.
One major contributing factor to this setting was the decision from President Andrew Jackson and his Treasury secretary, Levi Woodbury, to enact a law – referred to as Specie Circular – which demanded that banks only accept gold and silver as forms of payment for the purchasing of public lands. This decision had major implications because public land speculation reached new heights at the time.
This law prompted panic as people began hoarding coins that consisted of precious metals. As a result, banks had an inadequate supply of gold and silver as Americans rushed to retrieve their savings. Consequently, many banks failed.
The size of the Hard Times Tokens was similar to the cents they were intended to replace. Many of the designs took the difficulty of the situation as an opportunity to poke fun at Jackson and his vice president, Martin Van Buren.
Here we look at a few of the most amusing designs.
Running Boar Hard Time Token (1834)

This token, minted from copper in 1834, reads My Substitute for the US Bank. My Currency. My Glory. Experiment. The obverse lettering reads, Perish Credit Perish Commerce My Victory My Third Heat Down With The Bank 1834. The wording of this token perfectly captures the sense of anger prevalent in the US at the time. For example, Jackson and Van Buren were often ridiculed for the tokens as seen by another design which included a quote from Van Buren’s inaugural speech, “I follow in the footsteps of my illustrious predecessor,” with an image of a running jackass meant to represent Jackson.
Millions For Defence Token (1837)

This piece is a reminder of how many Americans felt about the British at the time. The lettering reads, Millions for Defence Not One Cent For Tribute which expresses support for building up defense capabilities in the US instead of giving in to British demands amid an ongoing border dispute over Canada.

This copper token contrasts the stability of the constitution with the peril of Van Buren’s “experiment.” The obverse includes the name “Webster” referring to the pro-Whig Democrat Daniel Webster who was a vocal opponent of Jackson’s policies. Webster disagreed with Jackson’s anti-bank stance which resulted in Jackson’s decision to remove federal deposits from The Second Bank of the United States, the second federally authorized national bank in the United States. Jackson diverted federal revenue into selected private banks by executive order. This ended the Second Bank’s regulatory role.
The coins are a reminder that even in the 1800s there was a level of divisiveness in the country that so many associate with only our current era. Many of these tokens are very affordable. They are a great way to include truly unique and individualistic pieces in a collection.
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What the Debt Standoff Ceiling Means for Gold
Posted onFor the first time in 100 years, it took more than one round of voting in early January to select the Speaker of the House of Representatives. In fact, it took a historic 5-day, 15 rounds of voting for the members of the U.S. House to choose Representative Kevin McCarthy as their leader.
What does this have to do with gold?
Well, the early signs from the contentious inner workings of the U.S. House of Representatives early this month bode poorly for a seamless approval to raise our nation’s debt ceiling limit.
The last time Congress held the debt ceiling hostage and took the U.S. to the brink of default was in August 2011 – gold soared to its then all-time high above $1,900 – as global investors turned to gold as a safe haven. Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating and the stock market tanked.
Could it happen again? The early political in-fighting in the House of Representatives has plenty of folks wringing their hands in worry.
Failing to raise the debt ceiling could lead to an “unmitigated disaster,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds, told investors in a client note.
The U.S. is slated to reach its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling limit this month – and the U.S. Treasury will resort to extraordinary measures to keep paying the nation’s bills – until they run out of cash.
What are extraordinary measures? Think about someone rummaging through couch cushions or jacket pockets looking for extra cash to pay for the pizza delivery.
Yes, it’s true – without an increase to the debt limit, the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash to pay everything from interest payments on our nation’s Treasury debt to Social Security payments to America’s elderly.
What isn’t always clear in the media articles about raising the debt limit is this: The U.S. has already borrowed and spent the money. In fact, the spending was already approved by Congress.
Failure to increase the debt ceiling is like someone who refuses to pay their credit card bill – after they have already bought the stuff.
It’s only in recent years that the debt ceiling has become a political tool.
In fact, since 1960, Congress has acted 78 times to raise, temporarily extend or revise the definition of the debt limit, according to Treasury. The debt limit was changed 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic administrations, CBS News reported.
What would happen if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling and the U.S. defaults on its debt payments?
It would destroy the global market’s confidence in American Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar as the reserve currency. It would trigger a recession in the U.S., cause millions of Americans to lose their jobs and the stock and bond markets would crash. Social Security checks would stop coming. Interest rates would soar because in order to continue funding the massive U.S. debt – America would be forced to pay extremely high rates of interest on new bonds – because no one would trust Treasuries anymore.
Gold could easily climb to new all-time highs – as it did in 2011.
The House speaker fight was merely a preview of how Congress is hamstrung by political in-fighting. The future of the global economy’s faith in the full credit of the U.S. government – is at risk. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Gold is already gaining ground every day as investors are seeking the safety of gold. Do you own enough?
Gold Trades at 10-Month High After Fed Rate Hike
Posted onFed Hints Rate Hike Cycle Is Almost Over
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday in its ongoing battle to bring inflation down. The big change in today’s Fed announcement was new forward guidance suggesting that they are near the end of the current Fed rate hiking cycle.
Investors continued the recent rush into the safety of precious metals. Gold ticked higher after the Fed move, trading as high as $1,947 on Wednesday afternoon.
The Fed’s rate hike today was a smaller amount than recent rate hikes and brought the Fed’s benchmark interest rates to a 4.50%-4.75% range. Last year, the Fed hiked interest rates seven times, and four of those included a super-sized 0.75% rate increase.
Reading between the lines
As Fed watchers on Wall Street scoured the official statement for clues on what could lie ahead, there were hints that the rate hike cycle could be ending.
Today, the Fed said they “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” when determining the extent of future increases in interest rates. That’s a change from past Fed statements which said those factors would impact the “pace” of future increases.
Walking a fine line between inflation and recession
The Fed has been trying to thread a needle between busting inflation without causing a recession. Many economists now believe a recession is inevitable in the U.S. in 2023, as the aggressive rate hikes seen last year begin to filter through the economy. It is well known that the impact of Fed rate hike changes take months to actually impact the economy. Just like a fully loaded tanker going full steam in the ocean, it takes time to turn the ship.
Gold posts double digit gains
In recent months, gold surged sharply higher, climbing 19% from November into the late January high, as the precious metal recently approached $1,950 an ounce level. With a recession on the horizon, gold could easily climb to new all-time highs in the weeks ahead – recent forecasts called for gold climbing as high as $3,000 an ounce. Today’s gold level offers an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors who seek to preserve and grow their wealth. Do you own enough?
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Top 5 Rare Coins You Should Collect
Posted onIf you are looking to expand your coin collection this year, this list contains some of the most sought-after coins for beginners and advanced numismatists alike. With an eye toward long-term investment value, if you seek to acquire the highest quality rare coin available that fits in your budget, you will never be disappointed. Here is our list of the top five rare coins you should collect.
1. 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln Cent

In 1907, President Roosevelt wanted a new coin to honor the 100th anniversary of Abraham Lincoln’s birth (1809-1909). Roosevelt explored the idea of featuring an image of President Lincoln on the coin and ultimately accepted a coin design proposal submitted by Victor David Brenner, a sculptor, and engraver.
Americans eagerly anticipated the release of the new Lincoln cent in 1909, this was the first ever regular issue coin in American history to feature a real person. On release day – August 2, 1909 – the police were called in for crowd control, as the coin was distributed for the first time on Wall Street. Newsboys famously took advantage of the huge demand, nearly doubling their money after braving long lines selling their Lincoln cents at three for a nickel.
Quickly, however, public controversy and scandal broke out over the design, specifically the inclusion of Brenner’s initials “V.D.B” on the reverse of the coin. Internal complaints emerged over the size and placement of the initials. A few days later, Treasury Secretary Franklin MacVeagh sent a message: “Stop the mints!” He halted production of the coin and ordered the initials removed.
By then, almost 28 million cents were struck in Philadelphia and 484,000 at the San Francisco Mint. Today, this beloved coin featuring the V.D.B. initials is essential to any Lincoln cent collection.
In 1918, the initials returned, albeit smaller and on the obverse, rather than reverse. That this occurred so soon after the death of Charles Barber led to rumors that Barber, the Mint’s chief engraver, was the person who made the original complaint about the initials.
2. $4 Gold Stella
Named for the five-pointed star featured on its reverse, there is a $4 gold coin known famously as a Stella. The gold coin was minted in 1879 and 1880 and originated as a prototype to closely approximate the value of common foreign gold coins. Stellas were never produced for circulation, but there was immediate collector demand for these awe-inspiring coins.
While it was said that no coin collector could obtain a Stella from the U.S. Mint, the Congressman who had received a special order for prototype viewing apparently used them as gifts and perhaps even payment. It was said that these great works of numismatic art were seen in special necklaces adorning the bosoms of Washington’s top madams, whose brothels were said to be patronized by those same Congressman.
Today, these coins are scarce and expensive. In fact, this ultra-rarity may be beyond the reach of many collectors. But, for those who have the resources, this is a gem to be treasured. The $4 Stella is a historic gem from an exciting time in American history.
3. $20 Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle
Affectionately known as “Saints,” these are often called one of the most beautiful coins ever produced by the U.S. Mint. These lovely coins exist due to the partnership between two monumental historical figures of their day.
President Theodore Roosevelt decided that the nation needed a more classical design on its gold coins. Roosevelt began his vision to reshape the nation’s coinage by unleashing the majestic talent of Augustus Saint-Gaudens, a brilliant sculptor of that time. As the story goes, at a Washington dinner party one evening, Roosevelt tasked Saint-Gaudens with the grand undertaking to redesign America’s gold coins.
Both men admired Greece’s ancient coins and agreed that U.S. gold coins developed in that fashion would be a monumental achievement. They were right. Today, these stunning coins still take your breath away. The obverse showcases a dramatic full-length portrait of Liberty in a flowing gown, heralding a torch in her right hand and an olive branch in her left. She is featured in full stride with rays of sunlight behind her. Above her, the word LIBERTY sits atop the coin.
The original high-relief version was stunning but impractical to produce and difficult to stack. Subsequently, the relief was reduced and production continued.
The $20 Saint-Gaudens gold piece was minted from 1907 to 1933, except for the years 1917-1919, when World War I resulted in rising bullion prices and an influx of American gold coins from Europe.
4. Morgan Silver Dollar

Many collectors consider The Morgan Silver Dollar to be the premier coin design created by George T. Morgan. The Morgan Dollar is a U.S. coin that was minted between 1878 and 1904, and then again in limited production in 1921. During the initial production phase between 1878 and 1904, there were over 500 million Morgan Dollars minted.
Over 270 million silver dollars were melted down in the U.S. in 1918, in efforts to help finance World War I, the majority of those were Morgans. It was the Pittman Act that called for their replacement, which opened the door to the last production cycle of Morgans ever minted in 1921.
On the coin’s obverse, Lady Liberty’s head dominates the striking face of the coin and is surrounded by the date, 13 stars, and the phrase E Pluribus Unum, which is Latin for “Out of Many, One.” On the reverse: the American bald eagle sits on a branch with his wings spread out dramatically, while gripping arrows in one of its talons. The work of art is surrounded by a 3/4 wreath and the motto “In God We Trust” is emblazoned above the eagle’s head. If there is a mint mark, it sits below the wreath.
It’s easy to see why the Morgan dollar is beloved among numismatists. The large, nearly palm-sized heavy silver dollar is a joy to hold in your hand.
5. Mercury Dime
You may already be familiar with the Winged Liberty Head Dime, popularly known as the “Mercury” Dime. The U.S. mint struck this popular coin from 1916 until 1945. This is one of the iconic coins that numismatics acquire for sets. Easy availability for most of the years is one reason that even beginning collectors can tackle the satisfying goal of owning a Mercury Dime set.
Within the Mercury Dime series, there are only a few absolute rarities and there is only one that is hard to find. The 1916-D is the scarcest major key date and rarity within the Mercury Dime series. Only 264,000 were struck. Other key dates include 1921 and 1921-D and 1942-1 and 1942 -1D. The latter key dates show “overdates” with the number “2” struck over the number “1.”
Some Americans confused the depiction on the reverse of the coin of a young Liberty with the Roman god Mercury, which is how its popular name caught on. The coin’s design received positive reviews within the artistic community. However, some modifications were required as the coin did not perform well in vending machines.
Collectors actively pursue this stunning coin for the exceptional design created by Adolph A. Weinman. The metal content is 90% silver and 10% copper. The mints include Philadelphia, Denver, and San Francisco.
Getting started
If you are interested in starting or adding to your collection, contact a Blanchard portfolio manager today. We will take the time to learn your investment objectives, investment time horizon, and risk appetite before recommending rare coins for your consideration – to help you meet both your collecting and investment goals.
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State of the Economy and Gold: Leading Economic Indicators Signal Recession
Posted onAs the economic data turns south, investors are rushing into gold and silver – favored safe-haven assets in an economic downturn. Gold charged out the starting gates in recent months, climbing at a dizzying pace. While gold vaulted a breathtaking 18.8% from its October 2022 low to the January high, silver is also showing a double digit increase – with a 21% gain over the past three months. Here’s what we are seeing in the economy now.
LEI warns recession is imminent
In December, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell for the 10th month in a row – signaling a recession ahead. The 1% decline in December was driven by weaker new orders and shorter average workweeks which spelled weakness for the economy ahead.
What is the LEI? The LEI is made up of 10 indicators that cover a wide range of economic activity, including job growth, housing construction, and stock prices. The LEI can be used to predict turning points in the business cycle and is considered a predictor of turning points because it includes a consensus of forward-looking indicators from different areas of the economy.
“The U.S. LEI fell sharply again in December – continuing to signal recession for the U.S. economy in the near term,” Ataman Ozyildirim, the Conference Board’s senior director for economics, said in a statement.
What this means for gold: Expect gold and silver to continue to climb in this environment. “Gold and silver are go-to assets when traders are bearish on stocks and the economy,” David Russell, VP of market intelligence at TradeStation told FOX Business. “Both metals could also benefit from a recession and the Fed halting interest-rate hikes,” Russell added.
Consumers spend less
December retail sales fell over 1%, driven by weaker spending on autos and gas. Consumers are hamstrung by still-high inflation, rising interest rates and a weakening labor market – with mass layoffs occurring at major corporations including Google, Spotify, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.
“With the war in Ukraine and all the world in, or entering into recession, their companies are trenching as demand is falling, belt tightening is going on,” John Van Reenen, the Ronald Coase School Professor at the London School of Economics told Time magazine.
What this means for gold: Weakening retail sales is another sign that economic growth is slowing and a recession is around the corner. Weaker retail sales will also translate into lower corporate earnings, which will continue to pressure the stock market. Gold is a non-correlated asset to the stock market and when stocks go down, gold typically climbs.
Debt ceiling could trigger global financial crisis – if Congress fails to increase the limit
In late January, the United States government hit its current $31.4 trillion debt ceiling limit set by Congress. Now, the Treasury Department is resorting to so-called “extraordinary measures” to continue paying America’s bills including interest payments on Treasury security debt, Social Security checks and the U.S. military troop’s paychecks.
The debt ceiling includes obligations that Congress has already approved. Now, the Treasury is backed into a corner trying to find a way to pay its bills, until Congress increases the debt limit.
While politicians in Washington D.C. are turning this event into a political football, in fact, the U.S. debt ceiling has been raised over 70 times since 1960, under both Democrat and Republican presidents.
While politicians want to force a debate on future spending, in order to raise the debt ceiling, if the Treasury were to default on our debt – it could trigger a global financial crisis, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned. She added it would mean borrowing costs would rise sharply for all Americans, it would cause a U.S. recession, global financial crisis and the U.S. dollar would lose its reserve currency status.
What this means for gold: Gold could easily climb to new all-time highs – as it did in 2011, the last time Congress played political football with our nation’s full faith and credit in the dollar and Treasury securities.
If you have questions about the state of the economy or would like to discuss how you can protect your wealth in the current environment, talk to a Blanchard portfolio manager today. We have been helping clients grow and preserve their wealth through diversification into tangible assets since 1975 and we can help you too.
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