Investing Strategy: Smart Gold Coin Buyers Accumulate On Price Pullbacks
Posted on — 1 CommentBuy low, sell high. It’s a market truism everyone is familiar with. Incorporating this into your regular investing routine is another matter.
A growing number of savvy individual investors today are diversifying their investment portfolios with physical gold. There are many arguments in favor of diversification with a hard, physical asset such as gold, including perhaps most importantly a negative correlation to the stock market.
That simply means:historically when stock prices plunge significantly gold generally rises as investors flock to the yellow metal as a wealth preservation vehicle. Physical gold is the best way for investors to have long-term exposure to gold because they own the actual commodity not a paper contract or derivative.
Take out some insurance.Gold is a hedge against stock market declines and also as a vehicle to protect and grow wealth.This paid off for gold investors after the 2008 global financial crisis when gold went from $700 to $1,900 per ounce.By owning physical gold, an investor is diversified providing a better performing portfolio, especially during times of uncertainty that is the world we live in today.
Recommendation:diversify 10-20% of your total investment portfolio to physical gold.
Use dollar-cost averaging:This is an easy and regular method for individual investors is to builda physical portfolio of gold coins.Savvy investors can improve overall purchase points with a “dip-buying” approach layered on top of dollar-cost averaging.
1. Dollar cost averaging is an investment approach designed to invest money as you receive it, for example, through your monthly income flow. Designate a specific amount to invest in gold each month. Smaller monthly purchases caninclude bullion fractional coins.Example: a 1/10 oz. Gold American Eagle currently trades at $152.54.
For investors implementing portfolio diversification:this could mean selling some equity assets and directing the funds to physical gold purchases, in order to increase gold exposure toward the desired 20% target.
2. The dip-buying approach seeks to enter a market on price pullbacks remember smart investors buy low. As any market moves higher, whether it is the price of Apple or the price of gold, all trends have squiggles, retracements and pauses. During an uptrend, or bull market, the price of any investment does not go in a straight line. Savvy buyers can use price charts to identify price pullbacks, which can offer buying opportunities.Monitor the daily spot price of gold and other precious metals here.Blanchard clients can receive an email or text alert when a precious metal spot price goes below a price point you choose.
Throughout 2016, gold buyers have emerged consistently on price pullbacks. Dip buyers have been a major support to the market this year.
Since December 2015, the price of gold (measured by December Comex gold futures) climbed from a low around $1,052 an ounce to a high in early July above $1,380 an ounce, over a $325 gain since the start of the year. The price of gold has surged 25% through early September and the uptrend remains intact. However, movement in the market trend created price pullbacks that can offers savvy gold buyers better buying opportunities.
Significant upside potential:Even though gold prices have been rising in 2016, the long-term price charts show significant upside potential. Gold is well off its all-time highs seen at above the $1,900 per ounce level in September 2011, which makes the current price point cheap on a historical basis.
Use This Approach for Your Retirement Savings Too
Combine a dollar-cost averaging approach with a dip-buying approach to gain better value on monthly purchase points. Investors can also diversify their IRA account with physical gold. Blanchard Gold can help you through three quick and easy steps to add gold bullion to your IRA, which will be held in an IRS-approved custodian bank.Learn more here.
Contact us now:A Blanchard portfolio manager is available to provide you with expert, personalized assistance.
Too big to fail banks have failed investors
Posted onSeptember 15 will mark the eight-year anniversary of D-Day in the global financial crisisthe morning that markets around the world learned how much the housing-debt implosion would permanently alter the financial industry landscape.
The language of the financial markets changed that day too, when we learned what the words too big to fail would mean to the largest U.S. banks.
One of those too big to fail banks–Wells Fargo–was right in the heart of the storm those days. But eight years on from the worst of the financial crisis, the too big to fail rules seem to have allowed Wells Fargo to run an extensive fraud scheme on its customers without much fear about the consequences.
Its clear from both the pervasive abuse of trust Wells perpetrated on its customers and the wrist-slap punishment it received from the U.S. government that problems continue to exist at the top of the U.S. banking system. We havent truly fixed the too big to fail problem. That should be a warning signal to investors about the ongoing fragility of the financial markets.
Trust was broken by Wells Fargos hard-driving cross-selling culture, where associates were pushed to meet sales targets for new accounts from existing customers. The strategy was undoubtedly a success for Wells and its shareholderson average a Wells consumer household held 6 accounts with the bank, and Wells Fargo emerged as the largest bank by market capitalization.
Now we know more about the path Wells took to the topopening 2 million fake accounts in its customers names, even creating false PINs for many these accounts. Some bank employees even transferred funds between accounts without customer knowledge or authorization.
The bank was slapped with a $185 million fine from federal regulators, and has taken action on its own to fire 5,300 employees who were implicated in opening these sham accounts. These punishments are severeor would be to any other banking institution except one of the size of Wells Fargo.
A $185 million fine is a drop in the bucket for a company with $5.6 billion in net income for just the 2nd Quarter of 2016. And the 5,300 terminated employees represent around 2% of Wellss 268,000-strong workforce.
For a mid-size American bank, 5,300 workers would be the entire company, and a $185 million penalty would likely put a significant dent in their profitability. But Wells Fargo is so large that these sanctions wont even register on their radar. The damage will be much more extensive to the banks reputation in the marketplace, not only with customers but investors as well.
The entire Wells incident says a lot about how far weve come in 8 years with too big to fail banks. The six largest U.S. banks–JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, in addition to Wells Fargodwarf the rest of the banking industry in terms of market cap, customer accounts, deposits and market influence.
Should any one of these banks fail, a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions will likely result. So all of the effort that when into writing new regulations to prevent too big to fail banks from wrecking the U.S. economy has largely been ineffectual.
We need a healthy and well-run U.S. banking system. The stories of widespread malfeasance at one of the U.S. banking giants calls into question how healthy and well-managed these institutions really are.
Given the fragile state and uncertain conditions of the dominant financial market players, wealthy investors should continue to position their holdings with an eye on preservation and protection of value.
The 1870-S Silver Dollar Coin: A Rare Find
Posted on — 4 CommentsThe early 1870s were an important time for the United States Mint. In one key event, 1873 passage of the Coinage Act marked the last year that the silver dollar coin would be struck.
This effectively ended production of the silver dollar for commercial use. Not only changing the landscape of coins in the United States, this development ensured the rarity and collectability of silver dollars today. The 1870-s silver dollar is known today as one of if not the rarest silver coins ever struck in the United States.
Also known as the 1870 Seated Liberty Silver Dollar, this silver dollar has a face value of $1.00. It was designed in 1840 by Christian Gobrecht, the Chief Engraver of the U.S. Mint at that time.
The coins obverse and reverse sides were originally based off of one of Gobrechts earlier silver dollar designs, with a left-facing seated lady liberty on the front. The back of his early design depicted a soaring eagle.
However, prior to full-scale production of the silver dollar coin in 1840, the Director of the U.S. Mint changed the designs slightly. The seated lady liberty design was modified to depict a woman with a larger head and fuller clothing. Thirteen stars were also placed around her head and the overall relief was lowered.
On the reverse, the soaring eagle was replaced by a left-facing eagle, inclusive of a shield on its breast. The words United States of America and One Dollar were kept as part of the original design, but a banner with the words In God We Trust was added.
The 1870 silver dollar coin reflects all of these design changes and modifications.
Value
The silver content of the 1870-s silver dollar coin comes in at 90% with a silver weight of 0.775 ounces. This represents a silver melt of around $15.52, making the 1870 silver dollar worth 15x its face value.
However, the value of the coin doesn’t stop there. A rough estimate of the coins numismatic value is said to be around $177,286. Further, an 1870 silver dollar that is in a certified mint state can be expected to fetch around $1,959,95 at auction. This makes it one of the most valuable silver dollar coins in United States history.
With extreme rarity comes extreme value. While silver dollar coins were minted in multiple locations between 1840 and 1873, very few coins from 1870 are available today. This is attributed, in part, to the fact that many of the coins were melted down to be repurposed coins of a smaller denomination. After the passage of the Coinage Act, these coins were not again seen until 1914, at the American Numismatic Society Exhibition.
Final Thoughts
With roughly ten still in existence, it should come as no surprise that the numismatic collector’s value of the 1870 silver dollar coin is incredibly high. In 2003, a verified coin in uncirculated condition sold for over $1 million. Even coins in less than stellar condition will likely exceed the six figure mark and, as time passes, can be expected to move beyond the 2003 auction price.
Jobs report recap: Gold climbs as Fed rate hike odds slide
Posted onFridays employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had been eagerly anticipated by the markets, especially after the previous weekends Federal Reserve Jackson Hole conference where Janet Yellen waved the banner of data dependency for guiding future Fed rate hikes.
Coming out of the Feds central bankers confab, expectations for a September rate hike had climbed higher, although there were more than enough doubts about the economy to temper the markets projections. The August jobs report was to be data dependencys big moment to tell the market if or when interest rates would rise this year.
What we got from the BLS last week was a softer jobs number than many had anticipated151,000 new jobs created in August, compared with expectations of around 180,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9% and hourly wages grew by 0.1%.
Not only did the August report undershoot expectations, it also represented a significant drop from the previous two months, when over 270,000 new jobs were created in both June and July.
The odds of a Federal Reserve September rate hike took an immediate hit after the release of the August report. As of Friday morning, the market saw around a 24% probability of the Fed hiking rates by a quarter-point at the September 21 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Odds of a Fed rate hike by the December 14 FOMC meeting were around 50% as of the close of business on Friday.
Gold prices spiked to as high as $1326/oz right after the jobs report was released, but were settling lower by mid-morning. Gold investors would prefer to see interest rates remain low for longer, and the underwhelming employment numbers would seem to bolster that case.
The August jobs report was not entirely disappointingit wasnt as bad as Mays shocking job growth figure of just 24,000 jobs created that month. A number under 100,000 for August would have been more distressing.
If anything, Augusts weaker-than-expected employment report brings some clarity to potential Federal Reserve moves in the near-term (as in September). But as for the longer termmeaning, through the end of this yearthe picture for Fed rate hikes remains muddy. That uncertainty should help keep gold prices elevated over the next few months.
The soft job-growth number for August may also indicate an even slower pace for Fed rate hikes going forward. Last December, when the Fed raised the Fed funds target rate for the first time since lowering to near-zero during the 2008 financial market crisis, Fed officials had projected four rate hikes throughout 2016. That pace of rate increases was said to be gradual at the time.
Now, we may only get one rate hike at all for 2016at the last possible Fed meeting for the year. This clearly is not the gradual pace that the Fed intended last year. As long as the economic climate remains murkysolid employment but tepid growth and below-target inflationliftoff for Fed rate hikes will likely be delayed further, much to the delight of the gold market.
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Fear Fed Rate Hikes
Posted onAs small business owners know and understand well, the labor market is getting tighter. It’s getting harder and harder to find qualified employees to fill open positions. This first-hand experience was confirmed by the U.S. Labor Department’s latest jobs report. In July, U.S. employers created a higher-than-expected 225,000 new jobs.
Shifting winds: This triggered another shift in expectations regarding when and if the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in 2016.
Just a few months ago: At the start of 2016, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and team were expected to hike rates gradually throughout the year with as many as three or four interest rate hikes forecast.
Boulders in the road: Early-year stock market volatility and concerns about Chinese growth, still-sluggish inflation levels in the U.S. and more recently the unexpected news from the U.K. to vote to leave the European Union widely known as Brexit have all splashed cold water on the Fed’s desire to “normalize” interest rates.
Gold prices initially softened on the better-than-expected employment news as it triggered speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve could tighten sooner rather than later.
But, here are three reasons gold investors don’t need to worry about Fed rate hikes.
The Fed’s benchmark interest rate called the federal funds rate — remains historically depressed well below normal.
The current fed funds rate stands at 0.25-0.50% –the central bank lifted the key rate off the zero-bound level in December 2017.
Even if the Fed were able to squeeze in one or two interest rate increases in 2016 it would still leave the federal funds rate well below the more historically normal 3.5-4.0% level.
History shows: Just look back at the federal funds rate level in 2005 prior to the global financial crisis that hit in 2008. The Fed funds rate ranged from a low at 2.50% to a high at 4.25%. The peak of that interest rate hiking cycle stood at 5.25% in June 2006. See Figure 1 below.
Why this matters: Even a marginal rate of increase in the funds rate in 2016 will keep interest rates at historically low levels in the United States.
The Current Economic Expansion Phase in the U.S. Is Old
The U.S. economy moves in traditional expansion and recession cycles. That’s normal. As many business owners know first-hand, the current expansion phase never really hit full-speed.
Quick look-back: While the Great Recession ended in officially in June 2009, the current economic recovery phase has never hit so-called “trend” or historically average growth levels around the 3.5% level or higher on a sustained annualized basis. Instead the U.S. economy has been limping along with meager growth numbers well below the long-term historical averages.
Economics 101:The average length of a U.S. expansion cycle (trough to trough) is 69.5 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (the arbiter of when recessions start and end in the U.S.). The U.S. economy is currently in its 86th month of “expansion.”
Key point: It’s long in the tooth. This current “expansion” cycle is running on fumes.
The current outlook: Wells Fargo Economics currently forecasts at 1.4% gross domestic product (GDP) reading in 2016 and the firm downgraded its outlook for 2017 to 1.9% from a previous 2.1%. It’s growth, but extremely sluggish by historical standards.
Why this matters: With the economy now in its seventh year of expansion, the odds are increasing that the next recession hits before the Fed has a chance to normalize interest rates back toward the 3.50-4.0% level.
This is gold-bullish and will keep monetary policy soft and negative interest rates in play as a possibility for the U.S. in the future.
Investment Demand For Gold Is Soaring.
Record investment demand was seen for gold in the first half of 2016, according to latest World Gold Council figures. See Figure 2 below.
Gold demand numbers: Global gold demand reached 2,335 tonnes (t) in the first half of 2016 with investment reaching record H1 levels, 16% higher than the previous record in H1 2009, according to the World Gold Councils latest Gold Demand Trends report.
The strength of this quarters demand means that the first half of 2016 has been the second highest for gold on record, weighing in at 2,335t. The global picture for gold is dominated by considerable and continued investment demand driven by the West as investors rebalance their investments in response to the ever-expanding pool of negative yielding governmentbonds and heightened political and economic uncertainty,” says Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the World Gold Council.
“The foundations for this demand are strong and diverse, drawing on a broad spectrum of investors accessing gold via a range of products, with gold-backed ETFs and bars and coins performing particularly strongly,” Hewitt adds.
Diversify With Gold
Diversification is key to any successful portfolio. Individual investors who seek to diversify their portfolio can look to physical gold investment as a beneficial portfolio diversifier. The argument for diversification is to hold a variety of assets that are non-correlated to lower overall risk. Over the past 10 years, the average correlation of gold to the U.S. stock market has been close to zero, according to World Gold Council research[KB1][KB2].
Along with its traditional draw as a safe-haven investment, a vehicle to store and grow wealth, and an inflation hedge, gold has proven to be an excellent portfolio diversifier.
Why that matters: When stock prices fall sharply, gold has shown a tendency to rise.
Early in 2016 revealed an example of that phenomena. The numbers: Stocks down, gold investments up — The S&P 500 tumbled 5.5% lower through February 29, and gold stocks (a subsector of materials in the S&P 500) soared 43.6% in the same time period, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Gold Buying Strategy
Many gold investors use a dollar-cost averaging strategy, or allocate a set dollar amount to gold purchases each month. It’s easy to get started buying gold coins. Learn more here.
Tip: Savvy gold buyers can fine-tune a dollar-cost averaging strategy to buy on price retreats.
Bottom line: The overall uptrend in gold remains positive. Gold dips have been used as buying opportunities all year, as physical buyers around the globe continue to build positions in the yellow metal. Savvy investors buy on price retreats.
Talk to the experts:Blanchardhas helped more than 450,000 investors with expert consultation in the acquisition of bullion. Contact us here.
Gold vs. Silver: Investment Pros and Cons
Posted onGold tends to get more attention from the markets than silver. Golds performance through the first half of 2016up over 25% for the six months grabbed more headlines in recent midyear market reviews.
But silver has bested its yellow metal brethren so far in 2016. Through the first half of 2016, silver prices appreciated more than 38%.
Silvers out-performance has many more people looking at it as an investment alternative to gold. The entry price is much lower between $18-19 per ounce as of this writing, compared with over $1300 per ounce for gold. While both metals are considered precious, there are distinct differences between using gold and silver as part of your wealth management plan.
Between gold and silver, which is a better investment? Here are some pros and cons to consider:
Silver has greater abundance
There’s generally more raw silver in the world to be mined than gold, which helps explain the wide per-ounce price difference between the two precious metals.
But it’s important to consider how the dynamics of supply and demand work in driving the silver market. Demand for silver has gradually increased since 2010, according to a Bloomberg analysis of data from CPM Group. (See chart below.)
Over that same period, supply increased but has not risen to the same level as demand. This gap between silver supply and demand has contributed to silvers strong performance so far this year.
Estimates from earlier this year show silver supply in 2016 dropping for the first time in five years. So even as demand increases, the supply in the marketplace will likely not keep pace, setting the stage for prices to increase.
Silver has more industrial uses than gold.
Demand for silver is driven in large part by manufacturers using the raw metal in production processes. One estimate placed industrial demand for silver at over 50% of total demand. For gold, the industrial share of demand is estimated at only 10-15%.
As a raw material, silver goes into the manufacturing process of a wide range of products, from surgical tools to batteries to electrical components.
While these greater uses for silver can influence demand for the metal, it also means the price of silver can be closely tied to the business cycle. When manufacturing activity slows in an economic contraction, demand for silver will likely dry up and its value will decline.
Gold as an alternative currency
Investors look to both precious metals for generally the same reasons they’re seeking to grow their investment through price appreciation, or they’re looking to shelter their wealth when other asset classes pose higher risks.
Gold has a greater allure as a store of value among investors looking for wealth preservation. So when market anxiety is running high and investors are seeking to convert their paper wealth into real assets, gold tends to garner more attention than silver.
But silver can a play a role in wealth preservation too, especially for investors looking to diversify their precious metal allocation. Gold and silver historically have not had a symbiotic relationship. In fact, the price relationship between the two metals has fluctuated constantly over time.
Looking at the gold/silver price ratio over the past 10 years (see chart below), you can see periods where silver was undervalued relative to gold (identified by the peaks in 2008-09 and more recently in 2016.
Gold is easier to store.
An ounce of gold and an ounce of silver weigh the same, of course. But in dollar terms, $10,000 of gold (around 7.5 ounces at current prices) is much smaller in size than $10,000 of silver (over 500 ounces at current prices.) Just because of the price differences, you don’t need as much space to store the same dollar amount in gold as you would in silver.
Gold also has a greater density than silver. A 10-ounce gold bar is around half the size of a 10-ounce silver bar. (This video shows a good demonstration of the difference.) That also makes gold bullion more attractive as a safe haven you can get a smaller safe deposit box or personal safe to store your physical gold in bars or coins.
Whether you’re considering a purchase of gold or silver as a long-term investment, be sure to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of both metals with a wider perspective of your overall wealth preservation plan.
Souvenirs from Jackson Hole: What gold investors can glean from the Feds weekend retreat
Posted onJanet Yellens Friday speech at the start of the Federal Reserves central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming was eagerly anticipated but delivered little in the way of surprises to the markets. The case for Fed rate hikes appears to have strengthened, the Fed chairwoman said in her remarks, thanks to evidence of a continuing recovery in the U.S. economy.
But the timing of rate hikes would remain uncertain and dependent on what future data reports about the economysentiments that arent much different from other statements the Fed has made in recent months.
It was left to Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer to grab the markets attentiona September rate hike is definitely on the table, he said during a CNBC interview later on Friday. A second hike before the end of the year is possible as well.
Markets took Yellens speech in stride, but changed course after Fischers remarks on CNBC. U.S. stocks relinquished earlier gains and the dollar found strength. Gold prices spiked after Yellen spoke, but settled somewhat later in the day as the dollar rose in value.
Expectations are now higher for a Fed rate hike before the end of the year. As of Monday, August 29, markets placed odds of just 30% on a quarter-point move at the next Fed meeting on September 21, according to data from CME Group. But a majority of investors see rates rising by at least a quarter-point before year-end.
What can gold investors take away from the Feds remarks during last weekends conference? First, the Feds reassurance to the markets about their ability to fight future economic weakness seems anything but reassuring. For example, consider the market reaction to Janets fan chart. (See below.)
On one hand, you may see in this chart that the Fed really has no idea what the economy will look like in the future. Given the range of possible extremes, the economy may run red-hot or turn cold as ice in the next two years.
On the other hand, the chart seems to say the Fed is leaving the door open to any and every potential action in the futurefrom rate hikes to over 4% by 2018, to a retreat to near-zero rates at this time next year.
Plus, theres only a confidence level of 70% that these projections will actually be realized. That means the Fed is giving itself around a 1 in 3 chance of getting this all wrong. Perhaps thats smart on the Feds part, recognizing that we now live in a world where outliers and black swans are likely to emerge and make fools of all market prognosticators.
Second, the Fed needs to raise rates to help restock its arsenal for fighting future recessions. But the unconventional measures adopted by the Fed in the wake of 2008s financial crisisasset purchases through programs of quantitative easingseem to be part of the conventional playbook now.
These accommodative central bank policiesfrom zero and negative interest rates (ZIRP and NIRP) to quantitative easingare blamed for encouraging excessive risk taking and inflating asset prices in global markets. In reasserting their use of these policies, the Fed appears to be all-in for keeping the bubble inflated.
What are the consequences for continuing these policies? Among many possibilities, one likelihood is for financial markets to remain risky and unstable, as long as the Fed is willing to prop them up with easy money. Future market shockswhether from the next Brexit or a currency devaluation from a major emerging market like Chinawill rattle investors and create more volatility. Money that pumped up risky assets such as stocks will likely escape into the relative safe havens of hard assets, gold included.
Also, consider the implications of keeping interest rates so low for so long. For savers and fixed income investors, this low yield environment has been brutal. Markets may scorn or stare in disbelief at negative interest rate policies around the worlds, and Fed officials can pronounce negative yields are something that will never happen here, but U.S. savers have been coping with negative real interest rates for some time.
This situation cannot go on forever. And when something cant go on forever, it wont. Some yield-hungry investors will go looking for returns in stocks and high-yield bonds. Others looking to preserve the value of their wealth will put some of it toward gold.
The Fed will continue to seek to stabilize financial markets and normalize its monetary policy. But they wont be able to flush out all of the uncertainty currently plaguing the financial markets.
Gold investors can expect the usual short-term volatility as the Fed struggles to find its way. But over the long-term, market instability is likely to help gold prices to remain resilient and potentially rise in times of market stress.
Why You Should Think Twice About Electronically Owning Gold and Silver
Posted onIn todays market environment, with more electronic trading than ever before, occasional flash crashes, and confusing derivatives being created every day, investors can understandably find themselves bewildered in any asset class. When ETFs and futures are thrown into the mix, the confusion especially builds as to the best way to gain exposure to two of the most well-known commodities: gold and silver.
There are essentially two different ways to go about buying or selling precious metals: electronic and physical. Electronic trading occurs when a brokerage firm facilitates the transaction and a clearing firm settles the trade. Within electronic trading of gold and silver, investors are mainly presented with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and futures.
Although the electronic forms of silver and gold investing are appealing because of their (ostensible) liquidity and convenience, they are certainly not without their flaws. As briefly mentioned above, flash crashes have been occurring with greater frequency and velocity lately, and they present a serious risk for anyone who owns shares of a gold or silver ETF.
During the near 8% intra-day equity market dive on August 24 of 2015, when China surprised the world by devaluing the yuan, there was sheer pandemonium in every traded security across the world as many algorithmic and high-frequency hedge funds temporarily shut off their systems to withdraw from the chaos.
As a result of this, there were massive price discrepancies in ETFs in particular, because the buy/sell imbalance was far greater than anyone anticipated. To explain why this happened, its essential to know the basics of how an exchange-traded fund operates. Gold and silver ETFs aim to replicate the price of gold/silver by holding gold/silver futures or bullion. Shares are then offered to the retail customer to gain exposure to this instrument, which mirrors the spot price of gold/silver.
Its crucial to note, however, that supply and demand do not affect the price of an ETF. Instead, sales and purchases of the ETFs shares are absorbed by authorized participants and institutional arbitragers to balance out all of the selling with all of the buying and vice versa,while the share price still tracks the spot price.
This sounds efficient in theory, but when chaos inevitably ensues, it can be disastrous for ETFs. For example, an investor could own 1,000 shares of a gold-tracking ETF trading at $45 with a good-till-cancel stop-loss order to sell the shares if they trade below $39. All it would take is another flash crash, technical glitch, or temporary pricing imbalance to make the ETF have a $39 print that leaves that investor with a $6,000 loss and no gold to show for it. And the likelihood of something like this occurring should not be underestimated.
If this were to happen, as it has in the past, it would likely happen with such tremendous speed that there would be nothing a person sitting in front of a computer could do to thwart the damage.
Of course, this is assuming that the ETF is even trading. If markets get too chaotic, ETFs can momentarily halt altogether, making opening and closing positions impossible.
All of this is hardly scratching the surface when discussing electronic vs physical precious metal investing. One of the genuine, downbeat risks of owning gold or silver via an ETF is that the metals are simply not guaranteed to the investor especially in a time of a financial crisis.
Ironically, for gold and silver ETF owners, gold and silver tend to perform best during times of dire economic adversity and uncertainty. This was precisely the time not that many years ago that major banks, which investors and analysts were positively certain would never fail, filed for bankruptcy. Times like this are an enormous boon for gold, and it would be foolish to partially miss out from a technical glitch in an ETF, or fully miss out with abject institutional financial failure.
Due to these reasons, a handful of investment professionals opt for gold and silver exposure through the use of futures due to the lack of counterparty risk; in a financial crisis, the metals are guaranteed to the purchaser by law. Nevertheless, an increasing number of professional money managers and investors still opt to own gold in its physical, tangible form.
Moreover, when brokerage commissions, the monthly rolling cost of futures, and ETF management fees by the underwriting fund are taken into consideration, a rare metal investors profits are eaten away over time, and the case for owning palpable gold becomes that much stronger. This combined with the fact that a better option actually exists (because this physical ownership option doesnt exist for some stocks, etc.) seals the deal.
Even though warehousing costs for physical rare-earth metals can be circumvented with a home safe, the costs can indeed be present for investors. However, owning gold and silver in a physical state and securely storing it, thereby knowing it will always be there regardless of economic or political happenings in the world, brings peace of mind, and no one can put a price on that.
Four Legendary U.S. Silver Dollars
Posted onRare coins are valuable to collectors due to their scarcity, but those with a unique story behind them are among the most collectible specimens in the marketplace.
Here are four U.S. silver dollars that have achieved legendary status, thanks to their background and recent auction activity.
Flowing Hair Silver Dollars
The first dollar coins to be issued by the U.S. Government, these coins were minted for only two years: 1794 and 1795. Only 1,758 of these dollar coins were produced in the first year, and those were intended for use as souvenirs rather than legal tender.
Although the first specimens produced were deemed at the time to be of poor quality, these dollar coins have become among the most highly prized collectibles with numismatists and investors. A mint-grade specie sold at a record price of over $10.0 million in 2013.
Draped Bust Silver Dollars
These coins replaced the Flowing Hair silver dollars, and production ran from 1795 through 1803. The first Draped Bust dollar coins included a small eagle on the reverse side, which was replaced by the more common heraldic eagle in 1798.
The minting of all silver dollars was suspended in 1806, but production of the Draped Bust variety had stopped prior to that. A mintage of 1804 Draped Bust silver dollars was struck, but these coins were actually produced in 1834, to be used as gifts for trade visits by U.S. representatives to Asia.
Now, these 1804 specimens are among the most valuable and highly prized Draped Bust silver dollars. A mint condition specie sold at auction for $3.8 million in 2013. More recently, one collector bid over $10.5 million for a Draped Bust silver dollar at a Sothebys auction, but the bid did not meet the reserve price.
Seated Liberty Dollars
These one-dollar coins were minted in the US starting in 1840, and continued for over three decades. The passage of the Coinage Act of 1873 temporarily halted production of silver coins, and the Seated Liberty dollars were replaced by trade dollars.
During the years when the Seated Liberty dollars were minted, the California Gold Rush also occurred. The increased supply of gold made silver more valuable on a relative basis. Silver producers preferred bullion to currency due to the elevated prices, and few brought the metal to the mint to be struck into coins. As a result, the production runs for Seated Liberty dollars were small.
The motto In God We Trust was added to the reverse in 1866. Seated Liberty dollars that were minted before 1865, without the motto, are generally more highly valued, especially those of proof-grade quality.
1870-S Silver Dollars
Only 12 of these silver dollars are known to have been produced, making them among the rarest coins of this denomination according to coin experts. These specimens were struck at the San Francisco Mint in its inaugural year, but the coins themselves lack any mint marks, and no record exists of their production.
A mint-grade 1870-S Silver Dollar sold for $1.0 million in 2003, reflecting the rare and highly desirable nature of these coins. Future sales will likely fetch six figures, while those of the finest quality can be expected to sell above the 2003 auction price.
A Seesaw Week for Gold
Posted onIn a bumpy week for gold trading, the precious metal edged slightly higher for the second consecutive week, with most of the gains coming from the days leading up to the much anticipated Fed meeting minutes. As soon as the minutes were released online Wednesday, gold futures for December delivery were so volatile, prices ranged from $1,340.50 to $1,352.60 per ounce within the span of about two minutes.
Among other things, this powerful reaction to the details of the meeting displays the Federal Reserves impact on the gold market, because traders and investors are looking to dissect every last word of the meeting in hopes of gaining clarity on rate hike timing.
The minutes very clearly showed that Fed policy makers are not willing to raise rates until they are fully in agreement on the outlook of the US economy. Naturally, the idea of Fed officials not wanting to damage the economy by raising rates prematurely is beneficial for gold, so prices rapidly recovered from the initial sell-off to $1,340.50.
The minutes also showed that many Fed officials want to hold off on a rate hike until they see further signs of economic growth and inflation. Jim Steel, an analyst at HSBC, noted the longer the Fed delays a rate rise, the better for gold.
Besides the fact that low interest rates are generally thought to be favorable to gold, the idea that the US economy may not be as robust as it seems could have also contributed to the intraday rally.
Nevertheless, gold managed to lose some steam and didnt finish the week as strong as many analysts expected. Gold has traded between $1,360 and $1,340 per ounce for the last three weeks with the exception of three days where it broke above $1,360, but this was evidently not sustained.
Markets across the board are famously quiet this time of year, so volume is light and liquidity is often scarce. Therefore, rapid, knee-jerk like reactions (like after the release of Fed meeting minutes) are to be expected since there is limited market depth to absorb large buy or sell orders.
Comments from New York Fed President William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President John Williams spurred a minor sell-off for gold on Friday. Since there is not a significant amount of economic date coming out, investors are observing Fed officials very closely for any cues on interest rates. The slightest comment that vaguely hints at when or if a rate hike might occur can have shockingly dramatic impacts on gold.
With that said, investors should buckle up. In the coming week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen (along with a host of other central bankers)will be speaking at the annual Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Conference on Aug 26th. For an event that only occurs once a year, and with Fed officials who are clearly timid about the US economy, the impact on gold should be dramatichopefully to the upside.