Gold hits more than 2-year highs ahead of crucial U.S. jobs report

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As the Brexit referendum loomed, caution ruled the day during the Federal Reserves June 14-15 meeting, its latest minutes confirm, with central bankers holding rates steady while awaiting the June 23 votes outcome. And now investors are bracing for Fridays U.S. employment report to determine whether the economy here is hitting a rough patch of its own.

Although Brexit was on the Feds radar, weighing on its collective mind more was the disastrous May employment report, which saw only 38,000 jobs created. Participants generally agreed that it was advisable to avoid overreacting to one or two labor-market reports, the minutes read, but bankers were uncertain whether the May number was a definitive sign of a slowing economy.

$6 million bet predicts golds summer run:Golds reaction to the Fed minutes was muted, having already hit fresh two-year highs earlier Wednesday to reach $1,374, its best price since March 2014. The yellow metal has advanced for six straight trading sessions. Silver, meanwhile, was fighting to keep above the $20 level after topping $21 Monday.

Bullish futures bets on gold and silver remain at or near all-time levels in U.S. markets, and one $6 million ETF wager that bullion will keep rising through the summer caught CNBCs attention. Overseas, gold priced in the euro has consistently been rising since 2013, and Chinas largest gold-linked ETF hit a record high Tuesday.

Fridays jobs report will be key for investors in discerning just how significant the May employment report was. If the Labor Department prints another big subpar number, gold could conceivably make a run toward $1,400.

In the meantime, U.S. data Wednesday were mixed, with the strong dollar helping widen the nations trade deficit, while on the positive side, the ISM gauge of service-sector economic activity expanded.

10-year yield could sink below 1%: What is almost certain on Wall Street is that the Fed wont be raising interest rates at its July 26-27 meeting. As it is, market-driven rates on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and other sovereign bonds are in a race to the bottom (and even below zero in many cases) as Brexit aftershocks drive investors into so-called safe investments.

The 10-year T-bonds yield hit a record low Tuesday, and Allianz adviser Mohamed El-Erian even thinks it could sink below 1%. We no longer control our yield curve, he said.

The message of falling bonds is this: danger. Serious problems are starting to surface in several major British real-estate funds, and some major Italian and German banks are teetering.

Its starting to feel like 2008, Smith & Williamson fund manager John Anderson said. Somethings got to give. Government bond yields are telling you something very nasty is about to happen.

Widely respected DoubleLine Capital bond guru Jeff Gundlach concurred, saying, Things are shaky and feeling dangerous. I am not selling gold.”

Giant firms tout new gold bull: Meanwhile, gold got resounding endorsements from some major investment banks, including the worlds largest asset manager, BlackRock.

Gold is poised to go much higher, said top asset allocator Russ Koesterich. The reality is we are in an environment where the economy is slow, volatility is likely to be heightened. In that volatility, you need some hedge in your portfolio and there are few of them that work as reliably as gold.

Gold is an effective hedge, not just against equity risk but also against credit risk and in an environment in which real rates are low and now increasingly negative, gold does an even better job in that role, he said.

The case for gold is now more compelling than ever, argued UBS analysts. Gold has likely entered the early stages of the next bull run, analyst Joni Teves wrote. This trend should now deepen, attracting more participants and encouraging those who have been hesitating to get more involved.

As Brexits spider web of unpredictable outcomes keeps unfolding, stay hedged with precious metals. The U.S. jobs report Friday has the potential to rip the mask off of festering problems lying just below the surface right here at home.

Parallels to 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse

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The Brexit market shock of falling stock indexes, fluctuating currencies, and spiking gold prices has a familiar feeling to the market shock that occurred after Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.

In a sense, the collapse of Lehman on the most turbulent day of the global banking crisis set a precedent for all future market shocks. There are lessons in the market reaction to Lehmans downfall that can help gold investors set expectations following the Brexit market shock and spot prime opportunities for buying gold at reasonable prices.

A day that Wall Street wont forget:Lets go back to that transformative day of the financial market crisis: Sept. 15, 2008. Investors awoke that morning to learn the financial landscape had changed overnight. The biggest bombshell was the Chapter 11 filing of Lehman Brothers the investment banking and Wall Street behemoth with over $600 billion in assets, all of which had vanished over the course of a weekend.

Lehmans bankruptcy truly felt like a sky is falling moment for nearly all market participants. Stocks indexes around the world seemed to be stuck in a perpetual downward spiral in the following days, and no one knew what surprises would come out of blue as a result of Lehmans demise.

Charting golds reaction:Naturally, investors flocked to gold in the midst of this turmoil. Prices rose from around $740 per ounce just before Lehmans bankruptcy to over $900 per ounce justtwo weeks later. (See September 2008 chart.) But this rally in gold was short-lived. Investors who bought gold at these elevated prices saw them drop below where they were before the Lehman bankruptcyone month later. (See October 2008 chart.)

What was behind the retreat in gold prices and the round-trip volatility? Primarily it was a liquidity rush from investors looking to meet margin calls on their leveraged stock investments. While the financial meltdown and stock market correction continued to rage, gold prices cooled off and fell 15-20% from their crisis peaks.

Sparking golds record run:But once the margin covering had abated, the stage was set for a strong bull market in gold lasting nearly three years. Gold prices had bottomed around $712 per ounce in late October 2008, then climbed slowly and steadily to nearly $1,900 per ounce by September 2011 a total gain of over 166%.

It would not be surprising to see the same pattern in the gold market following the Brexit market shock a round-trip run-up in prices followed by a quick decline, then slow and steady appreciation over several years. We saw safe-haven buying and a price spike on June 24 the day after the world learned the result of the Brexit vote. Prices remained elevated during the next week as the market continued to digest the news and contend with the uncertainty.

Summer lull is hot time to buy:But the immediate shock of the Brexit outcome will lessen in the coming weeks. Gold prices may also come down from current levels as well. If so, the timing is ideal for investors looking to build gold positions for their personal wealth. Summer is typically the slow season for the gold market. Trading volume during July and August has historically been below other months of the calendar year. Buyers with the money to invest and the patience to watch how market trends develop may find good opportunities to purchase gold at relatively reasonable prices.

And because the uncertainty around the Brexit consequences will linger, gold is likely to remain an attractive safe haven for nervous investors with the potential to appreciate for many years to come. There are no guarantees of a similar outcome to what we saw after the Lehman market shock, but investors who are considering adding gold to their holdings should watch the gold market closely for prime buying opportunities to emerge.

Call Blanchard and Company now at1-866-629-2281to protect your portfolio as the Brexit aftershocks continue to unfold!

Silver rips above $21 amid July Fourth fireworks

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While Americans were busy barbecuing and shooting fireworks on July Fourth, the precious metals market saw renewed fireworks thanks in part to Chinese investors.

Silver especially sparkledMonday, launching a 7% run higher and climbing above $21 for the first time since July 2014 before easing Tuesday near $19.88.

Silver has gained 47% at its peak in 2016 and has risen by 55% since its December 2015 lows. In contrast, gold is up about 27% for the year.

The gold-silver ratio, or the number of ounces of silver needed to buy a single ounce of gold, fell to around 64:1, its lowest level since August 2014. Thats down from the 83:1 peak reached in February.

Concerns over Brexit aftershocks continue to fuel the ascent of both gold and silver, but another factor played intoMondayssure in silver: Chinese investors.

The price of silver surged to a two-year highon Mondayas buyers in China made bold bets in the futures market and scooped up vast volumes of physical metal, The Wall Street Journalreported. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most actively traded silver futures contract jumped for a fourth straight sessionon Monday, hitting its 6% daily maximum at opening to reach 4,419 yuan ($663) akilogram.

An increasing number of commodity-trading platforms in China also helped driveMondaysaction. The emergence of commodity trading venues in China has, however, changed the balance in the market, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen noted. Back in April,a sudden rise in demand for steel rebar and iron ore futures from Chinese day traders triggered a major surge in daily volumes.

However, silver also is commonly viewed as a high-power play on golds movement, with the white metal often outpacing the yellow metal in percentage gains in bullish markets. And so, following the Brexit vote traders around the world, not least in China, have increasingly cast their eyes on silver, Hansennoted.

Western demand also is supporting silver. Holdings in silver-linked ETFs hit record highs in June, and coin and bar consumption remains robust. One United Kingdom bullion dealertold Bloombergthat silver buying was trumping gold purchases at his firm.

The UK demand for Silver Britannia coins is very strong, he said. Three times more than average.

And in the U.S., sales of the Mints silver American Eagle bullion coins continue at a record-breaking pace, with938,000 ounces sold in the pre-holiday week the best weekly total since late May. So far, investors have snapped up more than 26.2 million silver Eagles 20% more than at the same time last year.

Silver has benefited from its dual identity as both a monetary metal and a key manufacturing component. The metal continues to be buoyed by its unique position as both an industrial metal in risk-on conditions and a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty, MKS trader Sam Laughlin noted.

In addition to the digital and medical industries, silver also is crucial to the burgeoning solar-power sector.”Silver is increasingly used in solar panels now, Jeremy Wrathall of Investecsaid. Something like 10% of demand comes from solar panels. Solar panels is a growing source of demand for silver, so you have got an additional attraction for silver as well, as a commodity investment and also industrial usage.”

Although silvers profit-taking pullback in the wake ofMondayspowerful surge was expected, the metal likely is building a base for further moves higher as the fallout from the Brexit referendum continues torattle global financial markets.

10-year U.S. Treasury bonds yield plummets to record low

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Negative-yielding sovereign bonds around the world now totalat least $11.7 trillion. Switzerlands 50-year bondhas fallen into negative territoryfor the first time in history. And now the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bondhit a record lowon Tuesday.

Its the only way to find income, Allianz Global Investors bond expert Franck Dixmierlamented. And Morgan StanleyInvestment Management fund manager Jim Caronasked, When you look at pension liabilities, insurance, where are you going to get a positive yield? At this point, its the best the market can do.

So, a roughly 1.3% return over 10 years (not even accounting for inflation) is the best the market can do? You dont have to look far for alternatives. Just look at two of the top-performing assets of 2016: gold and silver. Gold has gained as much as 27%, while silver has returned an astounding 44% at its zenith.

The pension funds and insurance companies Caron cites are woefully underinvested in the precious-metals sphere. Moreover, many are facing huge unfunded liabilities. A Citigroup study published this year found that20 countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developmentare facing liabilities totaling $78 trillion!

Negative yieldswill have a massive and negative effect on most pension schemes funding plans,predictedWarren Firth, actuarial director at Broadstone in the United Kingdom.

If yields continue to fallworldwide, many of these funds will plunge further into a sea of red ink. And if the U.S. economy takes a turn for the worse, or contagion from the Brexit situation spills over beyond Europe, then the Federal Reserve could well beforced to consider negative interest rates.

Yields in even Treasury bonds are so low that we already are seeing negative real interest rates in the U.S. Negative rates are rocket fuel for gold prices, as the World Gold Councilhas demonstrated, while they make business more difficult in many ways for banks as well as pension funds.

A move by the Fed into negative rates could take even more shine off already-anemic Treasury yields. At that point, golds attractiveness as a viable alternative to dismal yields could gain even further ground.

Institutional gold buying by central banks has been a key pillar of support for gold over the past few years. Increasing engagement from pension funds desperately searching for yield could mark the next leg up for a renewed bull market in gold.

Weve already seen high-profile moves into physical gold in recent years from Texasteacher-retirementanduniversity- endowmentsystems, whileJapanese pension fundshave increasingly sought safety in bullion.

Look for interest in gold to grow as investors balk at paying fees to hold government bonds or to keep their money in negative-yielding bank accounts. And should another debt-ceiling debacle dent the faith of global investors in U.S. Treasuries, look for that growing interest in gold to become, potentially, a stampede.

Brexit-fueled money printing will send gold to $4,200, CLSA analyst says

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With silver backing off from its blistering July Fourth run above $21, gold finished Tuesday near two-year highs in a fifth straight trading day of gains.

The metal was trading at $1,355 by midafternoon, while silver dropped about 2% to touch $19.89.

And in another sign the concerns over the United Kingdoms Brexit vote are being felt globally, bullion sales at a top Japanese gold retailer, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K.,jumped 1.8-foldbetween June 24 and July 4, versus the previous week.

Gold-linked exchange-traded funds also continue to draw investors who have been bruised by stock-market volatility, with holdingsrising by 500 tonsin the first half of 2016.

“Safe haven demand has continued to grow, Phil Streible of R.J. O’Brientold Reuters. A lot of people believe that global monetary easing worldwide is going to continue.

Indeed, at the epicenter of the Brexit turmoil, the British poundplunged to a fresh 31-year low. Meanwhile, the Bank of England partnered with eight major commercial banks and promised to stand at the ready with more liquidity, saying the fallout has just begun.”There is evidence that some risks have begun to crystallise. The current outlook for UK financial stability is challenging,” itwrote.

And a top European Central Bank official warned that the UK is facing simultaneous inflationary and recessionary forces. In the short term there is a difficult challenge for the British economic and monetary policy between two contradictory challenges: There is the challenge of inflation, with the effects on inflation of the fall of the pound, which is down 11 percent since Brexit, said Francois Villeroy de Galhau.

And then there is recession challenge with the tendency to see less growth due to the uncertainty impact on investments. And it is always very complicated for monetary and economic policy to be caught in this dilemma.

The Bank of Englands governor, Mark Carney, has already hinted that more quantitative easing andinterest-rate cuts are on the way, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts concurred. Given the uncertainty and likely economic downturn, we expect the BOE to use its financial crises play book, they wrote. That means ignoring sterling-driven inflation, quickly taking interest rates to, or close to, zero and subsequently restarting QE.

And here in the U.S., investors were preparing for the release of the Federal Reserves latest minutes, dueWednesday, and also girding forFridaysrelease of the June employment report.

A factory-orders report for May was released Tuesday,showing a 1% drop. Zero Hedge noted that this marks the 19thstraight monthly year-over-year decline in the metric.In 60 years of historical data, the U.S. economy has never, ever suffered a 19-month stretch of consecutive annual declines, itwrote.

And with the end of June comes the start of another corporate earnings season, with analysts forecasting the longest profit recession since the financial crisis, Londons Financial Timesreported.

With all this pressure on the Fed not to rock a precarious global economy with an interest-rate hike, furthertightening seems off the table for the rest of 2016, at the least. Some experts are even predicting more easing from the Fed in the coming months, with JimRickards of Strategic Intelligencetelling CNBC, Maybe the Feds next move is a rate cut some time next year. Fed chief Janet Yellens needs the weaker dollar to import inflation into the U.S. The Feds nowhere near their inflation target.

As global central banks launch the same old tools to control the Brexit crisis, with bond yields plunging further into negative territory, other gold watchers are predicting new record highs.

“I think over the next 18 months we’ll make new all-time highs,” Swiss Asia Capital’s Juerg Kienersaid. “No, I’m not going to give you a number because I don’t know insane central bankers can be. They are surprising me all the time with new stuff.”

ButChristopher Wood of CLSA is giving us a number. A long-term bullish view is maintained on gold bullion, with the ultimate price target now set at US$4,200 an ounce, Woodtold clientsTuesday.

This is because the view here remains that central banks, including most importantly the Federal Reserve,will not be able to exit from unconventional monetary policy in a benign manner and will remain committed to ongoing balance-sheet expansion in one form oranother. Such policies will ultimately discredit central banks pursuing unconventional monetary policy, threatening the stability and indeed integrity of the current fiat-paper-money system.

With the United Kingdom Voting for Brexit, the Whole World Is Now Voting for Gold

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On Thursday, June 23, the United Kingdom left an indelible mark in the history books when it voted to leave the European Union, forever changing the world for investors, politicians, and European residents. Although political commentators and central bankers may provide the image of confidence and security, no one knows for certain what the future now holds for the world, and specifically, the financial markets.

From Japan to the United States, equities, currencies, and virtually every other risky asset unanimously sold off throughout the reporting of the Brexit polls as the Leave campaign gained favor and appeared likely to win.

However, gold, the one asset that didnt have a stark intraday selloff, traded as high as $1362.60 an ounce, which is its highest level since 2013. In times of severe uncertainty, such as the UK leaving the EU for the first time in the history of the world (a.k.a. Brexit), investors from all over the world seek refuge in safe assets like gold.

Biggest one-day surge since Lehman: Gold futures trading on the CME for August delivery, which ultimately determine the value of any form of tangible gold (like a ring or necklace), gained almost 6% intraday after it was ascertained that the Remain group would mathematically have to win before the polls officially closed; this was a one-day surge in the price of gold not seen since the infamous collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Although it may sound histrionic, the sheer impact that Brexit has on the entire world, and specifically on the price of gold, cannot be underscored enough.

From a fundamentals standpoint, there is simply no reason not to own gold in a time of such turmoil. Besides the inherently limited supply of gold that provides a logical reason to buy, the current demand for gold in times of market turmoil and uncertainty is off the charts.

Aftershocks could last for years: Ned Schmidt, the renowned author of the Value View Gold Report, described how Brexit is a once-in-a-lifetime event that decimates any bearish assumptions about the price of gold. The case to buy gold becomes so much stronger when discussions about global markets now include the possibility of multiple recessions, currency devaluation, and inconceivably high volatility and fear.

The reasoning behind the belief that the price of gold will now continue to rise as a result of Britain leaving the EU is relatively straightforward. Besides the potential macroeconomic and political issues that Britains departure will create, there is, and likely will be, an extremely heightened sense of uncertainty for years. This uncertainty makes investors partake in a flight to quality, where they dump risky assets and purchase safe ones, like gold.

Safe-haven allure now undeniable: If an investor has money that they want to use, or are obligated to use (such as a multibillion dollar mutual fund that can influence market prices), they too are looking for safe investments, and this also makes the case for purchasing gold even more convincing.

Similarly, those who have a more pessimistic economic outlook, perhaps residents or banks in Britain whose currency has lost a whopping 10% in one day (the biggest drop in 30 years), would buy gold purely because holding cash in the local currency is just too risky.

At the end of a day filled with chaos, panic, and perplexity, history was unequivocally made with Brexit, and it is safe to say the scale utterly tipped in favor of buying gold.

5 major post-Brexit milestones in gold and silver

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Brexit has proven to be the icing on the cake for an already-stellar year in precious metals. With June now over, the top two metals were the best-performing assets for the month.

Gold finished the first half of the year with a 25% gain and is trading at more than two-year highs. The first six months of 2016 represent golds best first-half annual performance since at least 1980. Meanwhile, silver logged a 33% increase. What other milestones and even records have been set since the United Kingdom voted in favor of leaving the European Union?

  1. Silver has surged above $19: While golds 8.8% advance in June (its biggest monthly increase since February) was impressive, silver managed to outperform the yellow metal by breaking the $19 level for the first time since September 2014 in its best weekly move since August 2013 (with an 8% advance that saw it touch $19.40). The white metal returned a blistering 17% in June.
  2. Top gold ETF breaks all-time record: The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-trade fund, the worlds largestbullion-linkedETF, experienced its biggest inflows ever in the first half of the year. The more than $12 billion invested so far in 2016 is greater than what the fund gained in its biggest year ever, 2009. The GLD is attracting more capital now than 6,000 other ETFs tracked by Bloomberg and has added more than 300 metric tons for its highest level since at least July 2013. Meanwhile, holdings in all gold-backed ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have grown by 34% to 1,952 tons as of June 30.
  3. Trading volumes the best in 40 years: Futures volumes on the CME have never been higher in the first half of any other year. More than 28 million contracts were traded in the first six months of 2016.
  4. U.S. Mint coin sales higher than last year: The six-month rolling averages of the U.S. Mints gold and silver sales are both higher than a year ago, with $65 million spend on the yellow metal and $85 million invested in silver, according to a Convergex analysis. Of course, silver American Eagle sales are notably on course to smash last years all-time record of 47 million ounces, with 26.25 million already purchased. Gold American Eagle sales are almost 84% higher than where they were at this time last year, while gold Buffalo sales are nearly 17% greater than at the same time in 2015.
  5. Gold priced in the British pound retakes key level: Not only has gold priced in the U.S. dollar definitively broken through the $1,300 barrier, but gold denominated in sterling has rallied back above 1,000 pounds now that the Bank of England is vowing to cut rates and add billions worth of monetary accommodation to the financial system to ease post-Brexit stressors. UK investors have now seen pound-priced gold enjoy its best week since April 2013 and its best month since August 1982. Gold priced in the pound has returned an astounding 40% since the start of the year. Meanwhile, gold priced in the euro also had a breakout week.

With the smoke only just beginning to clear from the Brexit referendums aftermath, look for gold and silver potentially to reach more new milestones as 2016 unfolds.

12 top gold forecasts for 2016 in light of the game-changing Brexit vote

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Longtime gold bear Goldman Sachs was forced to upwardly revise its price targets for the next year as it became clear that the Brexit referendum would not only pass but also would inject entrenched uncertainty into financial markets for the foreseeable future.

What are some of the other major investment banks, money managers, mining executives, and metals experts saying about golds post-Brexit prospects?

Academia Capital: Golds going to end the year even higher, said the hedge funds chief investment officer, Ivan Szpakowski. People are realizing that Brexit is going to be a longer, drawn-out process. Thats still positive for gold. Id say thats the commodity that should end the year stronger.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group: Analysts reaffirmed their prediction of $1,400 gold prices over the next 12 months. There are still many questions regarding the U.K.s exit from the EU, they wrote. The ensuing political crisis in the U.K. and concern about the very future of the EU should keep investors on edge.

Credit Suisse: The Swiss bank sees gold reaching $1,500 by the first quarter of 2017. We raise our gold price forecast by 8% in H2/16 to $1,413/oz and 10% in 2017 to $1,450/oz on prolonged macro and political uncertainty following the Brexit vote, its analysts wrote. We see an extended timeframe for a negative real rate environment in the US and abroad and continued gold buying by central banks and consumers to diversify wealth. Our silver price forecast increases by 12%, to $18.75/oz, in H2/16 and by 15%, to $19.03/oz, in 2017, following gold.

Evolution Mining: I guess to me, the most interesting thing is: Are we seeing the first fault lines of a major correction and change in the financial and political systems? top executive Jake Klein told Bloomberg. If thats the case, then we could very well be at the early stages of a major bull market.

Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: For me, theres one currency that strikes be as being essentially, in the long run and amidst this environment of money printing, a no-brainer, and that is gold, Marc Faber told CNBC, predicting a new wave of post-Brexit monetary hijinks from global central banks. Now, is gold near-term overbought? Yes, it is. But longer-term, I think every investor should have some cash, which he would keep in yen or in dollars or in euros [and] should have some of this cash in gold. This is my preferred currency.

HSBC: Were looking for the market to get up to around the $1,400 level, said its top metals analyst, James Steel. Even before the UK vote, we had negative interest rates, which has actually been propelling gold to a degree higher all this year.

Insignia Consultants: Gold can cross $1,500 this year, said chief analyst Chintan Karnani, though he has doubts about whether the metal can hold that level. If the dollar gains substantially and expectations of another bull run in stock markets rise, then gold prices can fall to $1,176, he told MarketWatch.

Minelife: With the developments of recent weeks, I think theres every possibility that were looking at a price target between $1,400 and even $1,500 on the upside, said Gavin Wendt, raising his forecast from a previous upper range of $1,300. And I say that clearly and simply because gold ha already been moving strongly even before the Brexit vote. Gold was up very strongly against all major currencies.

Morgan Stanley: The investment bank has increased its 2016 price target by 8% and its 2017 forecast by 17%. Its ultimate target: $1,560. The firm says Brexit represents a brand new risk which has to be added to other positive factors for gold such as a languishing U.S. interest-rate cycle and Chinas high debt levels.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.: The Singapore-based firm, whose economist Barnabas Gan has been one of the most accurate price forecasters of recent years, is predicting the metal could hit $1,400 if the Federal Reserve doesnt raise rates, while a single rate hike would curb the metals rise to just $1,350. With U.K.s exit from the European Union, we expect the risk-off sentiment to persist into the months ahead, he wrote. Gans previous forecast saw $1,200 gold by the end of 2016.

Societe Generale: The usually gold-bearish French banking giant has nonetheless raised its third-quarter forecast to $1,330 and its fourth-quarter target to $1,350. It sees silver averaging $18 into 2017.

State Street Global Advisors: We have got the Brexit result, but that is a result without a resolution, said top strategist George Milling-Stanley. The resulting uncertainties will likely continue to roil financial markets, which should benefit gold. As for his price target, he said, It is not difficult to see $1,400 or even $1,450 by year end.

These forecasts shouldnt be taken as gospel, but the yellow metal has at least three strong factors supporting its advance: Brexit uncertainty; the likelihood of more money printing from central banks in form of quantitative easing, zero and negative interest rates, and so-called helicopter money; and golds post-Brexit ability to attract safe-haven inflows even as the U.S. dollar rises and U.S. stocks show some resilience.

Greenspan pledges allegiance to gold, warns of surprise inflation surge

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To those who know Alan Greenspan only from his 1987-2006 tenure as chief of the Federal Reserve, his early years as a gold advocate and an acolyte of Objectivist philosopher Ayn Rand often come as a surprise.

His 1966 essay Gold and Economic Freedom, which appeared in some Rand publications, is still widely cited today. In it, Greenspan wrote a couple of zingers that carry huge weight in the modern economic landscape. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value, he noted. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights.

Fed chief embracing gold again: However, Greenspans subsequent legacy as Fed chief has drawn sharp criticism from some quarters. His alleged mismanagement of interest rates and other policy errors are blamed for disasters such as the dot-com bubble and the real-estate crash of 2007.

Nowadays, though, in a seeming effort to repair his legacy, the nonagenarian Greenspan seems to be on a perpetual reformation tour in which he publically re-embraces his pro-gold stance of the 1960s. His comments to the Council on Foreign Relations in 2014 turned heads: Gold is a currency, he confirmed. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.”

And now he has issued similar sentiments during a lengthy interview with the Bloomberg news agency in which he commented on issues ranging from the United Kingdoms Brexit from the European Union (a terrible outcome) to falling U.S. productivity and the governments growing entitlements burden.

Gold standard for a golden age: If we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure of the gold standard as it exited prior to 1913, we’d be fine, he said.Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive periods economically that we’ve had in the United States, and that was a golden period of the gold standard.I’m known as a gold bug and everyone laughs at me, but why do central banks own gold now?

On the state of the current U.S. economy, Greenspan said he sees no sign of a recession (Where have we heard that before? Think Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.) but rather stagnation, a term that evokes former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers theory that the global economy is now stuck in a low-growth trap of secular stagnation.

Greenspan also issued a surprising warning that should serve as a wakeup call for gold skeptics. The money supply, M2, which has always been a critical indicator of inflation, is for the first time, is going up remarkably steadily, 6-7%, almost a straight line, he noted. Its tilted up in the last several months; its added a percentage point or two. The thing that we should be worrying about now which we have actually given no thought to whatsoever is that this type of economic environment ends with inflation. Historically, fiat money has always ended up that way.

Human history full of surprise inflation: Although inflation hasnt reared its ugly head enough to register definitively on the standard price gauges such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, Greenspan reminds that thats exactly how inflation works: by stealth and surprise. I dont know when its coming. I know if you look at human history, there are times and times again when we thought that there was no inflation and everything was just going fine, and I just basically say, Wait, this is not the way this thing ordinarily turns out. I dont know; I cannot say I see it on the immediate horizon. In fact, commodity prices are soggy. The oil price has had a terrific impact on global inflation. Its not about to emerge quickly, but I would not be surprised to see the next unexpected move to be on the inflation side. You dont have inflation now, and you dont have it until it happens.

Whether you view Greenspan as The Maestro or a mook, his warning on inflation is a stark wakeup call for those who have dismissed the unprecedented waves of relentless money printing launched by the worlds central banks in the wake of the financial crisis. At least one school of economic thought tells us that inflation is inevitable, and given the massive expansion of central-bank balance sheets, it might not be mild in severity. The recent uptick in oil prices could provide the incipient spark that ignites the inflation Greenspan is anticipating. Gold is the go-to investment hedge against inflation, and it just got a major endorsement from one of the most widely followed figures in modern economics.

Chinas gold demand firing on all cylinders again in Brexits wake

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The Chinese gold market has been notoriously opaque over the past few decades, but thats now changing as its Shanghai and Hong Kong metals exchanges increase their visibility with new investment products and growing participation from Western banks, and its central bank is now reporting additions to its official reserves.

And while some analysts say the United Kingdoms June 23 vote to exit, or Brexit, the European Union will have few lasting global economic effects, investors in China apparently beg to differ. The most eye-catching sign of Chinas post-Brexit gold rush is the surging action in its major bullion-linked exchange-traded fund.

Heeding warnings of recession and contagion from numerous reputable sources, Chinese investors are rushing to gold as a haven after the U.K.s vote to quit the European Union, Bloomberg reported Monday.

Turnover inHuaan Yifu Gold ETF, Chinas top exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, jumped to a record 1.27 billion yuan ($191 million) Friday after Britains vote, the news agency added. Outstanding shares of Huaan also reached a record 1.6 billion on June 20, jumping five-fold from the start of the year.

Sharp uptick at Shanghai exchange: For the past few years we only saw tepid Chinese interests in these gold funds, Shanghai Leading Investment Co.s Shihua Duan told the agency. Now theres a surge and a lot of people havent realized that this surge is only the beginning.

China has always been crazy about physical gold such as jewelry and coins, to the detriment of its ETF industry. The current holdings of the top four such funds only total about 28 tons even after major inflows this year; Duan argued that that number should rise eventually to at least 600 tons.

Meanwhile, activity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also erupted in the Brexit referendums wake. There has already been a sharp uptick in activity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the World Gold Council noted in a June 24 update. Trading volume spiked, reaching 346t compared to a daily average of close to 100t since the start of the year.

Hong Kong exports to mainland leap: In another sign of growing demand, Chinas imports from Hong Kong in May jumped to their highest level in five months, with 115 tons brought to the mainland for a 68% month-over-month increase and a 63% year-over-year rise.

Furthermore, in the leadup to the Brexit vote, Switzerlands gold exports to mainland China started rising, with a 36% month-over-month increase in May of 19 tons, while the 24 tons sent to Hong Kong almost tripled the previous months total.

The year 2016 has seen a topsy-turvy shift in gold-demand patterns. After a record level of gold consumption in China in January, Western investors who had forsaken gold in favor of stocks also found their way back to the metal as the U.S. stock market plunged early in the year. But Chinese demand appeared to ebb somewhat after the January peak, as did Western investment as equities stabilized. Now, though, with Brexits potential after-effects being felt globally, both Eastern and Western gold buyers seem to be returning simultaneously to the gold fold, and that bodes well for predictions of $1,400 and higher bullion prices.