What is a cameo coin? Rare coin collecting concept explained.

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What does the term cameo mean in rare coin collecting? Most modern proof coins feature a mirrored surface that contrasts with frosted devices, thanks to highly polished dies and planchets as well as technological innovations introduced in the 1970s and perfected over the decades, including the use of lasers.

But this cameo quality wasn’t always a regular feature in American coinage. Back in the 1800s, proofs themselves were relatively rare numismatic birds, requiring extra strikes from Mint presses to bring out a coins finer details. The life spans of the dies were limited because of the intense pressure needed to create proofs. Acid baths and sandblasting techniques also have been used to create proof and cameo characteristics.

The cameo characteristic is even more elusive in older coins. Therefore, collecting 19th– and early-20th-century proofs that also boast cameo finishes can be a lucrative pastime.

PCGS uses deep cameo coin label: The two major coin-certification services use slightly different terminology to describe cameo coins. According to the grading service PCGS, cameo is a term applied to coins, usually Proofs and proof-like coins, that have frosted devices and lettering that contrast with the fields. When this is deep the coins are said to be black and white cameos. Occasionally frosty coins have cameo devices though they obviously do not contrast as dramatically with the fields as the cameo devices of Proofs do. Specifically applied by PCGS to those 1950 and later Proofs that meet cameo standards (CAM).

For extra-special cameo coins, PCGS uses the term deep cameo, or DCAM. The term applied to coins, usually Proofs and proof-like coins, that have deeply frosted devices and lettering that contrast with the fields often called black and white cameos. Specifically applied to those 1950 and later Proofs that meet the deep cameo coin standards (DCAM).

NGC uses ultra cameo coin label: In contrast, the other major grading service, NGC, uses cameo and ultra cameo as descriptors. Cameo applies only to proof (PF) coins and features fields that are deeply mirrored and the devices are frosted for moderate contrast on both sides of the coins, NGC writes. The term “ultra cameo coin” also applies only to proofs and features deeply mirrored field with devices that are heavily frosted for bold contrast on both sides of the coin.

Fine line between cameo and ultra cameo coins: NGC researcher chief David Lange explained the concept in a 2002 post. Its very difficult to put into words the difference between CAMEO and ULTRA CAMEO, other than to say that the latter is clearly more pronounced, he wrote. The dividing line is somewhat subjective, but the important thing to remember is that NGC applies the distinction as consistently as humanly possible and in accordance with widely accepted market standards. For a proof coin to be labeled CAMEO by NGC, it must display contrasting fields and devices on both sides. For the ULTRA CAMEO designation, it must have superior contrast on both sides.

As of June 6, 2016, Blanchard and Company has at least three classic coins in stock that are considered cameo or better.

  1. The 1900 Liberty Head Quarter Eagle is certified as PR65 by NGC and carries a green CAC sticker of quality assurance. It has been designated as a cameo coin.
  2. For an ultra cameo example, check out the 1898 Liberty Head Half Eagle, certified as PR66 by NGC and also bearing a green CAC sticker.
  3. Another ultra cameo coin in stock is the 1899 Liberty Head Quarter Eagle, certified as PR67 by NGC and carrying a green CAC sticker.

Click on the links to see the coins. Can you discern the difference in the levels of cameo? Call Blanchard’s knowledgeable numismatic professionals today to learn more about these coins as well as other opportunities in gold proof coinage.

Trump presidency will cause protracted recession, Harvards Larry Summers says

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The famed economist and former Treasury secretary who recently called for scrapping the $100 bill has now come out swinging against Republican presidential contender Donald Trump.

In an opinion piece in Londons Financial Times, Harvard economist Larry Summers lamented that the economist risks associated with the upcoming June 23 Brexit vote are being taken seriously, whereas the purported dangers of a Trump presidency have not been taken into account by financial markets.

As great as the risks of Brexit are to the British economy, I believe the risks to the US and global economies of Mr. Trump’s election as president are far greater. If he is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States, Summers wrote, predicting that if Trump does even half of what he has promised, he would surely set off the worst trade war since the Great Depression. He concluded: In no election in my lifetime has a major party candidate for president been so dangerous for the economy.

Uncertainty hurting growth: Here’s a newsflash for Summers, however: The economy likely is headed into recession regardless of who wins the presidency, whether Trump, Hillary Clinton, or some other candidate. The disastrous May jobs report issued Friday underscores that likelihood.

It’s certainly true that the uncertainty over the outcome of the presidential elections have some investors and businesses in cautious mode. A new survey by the National Association for Business Economics found that 60% of business economists say concerns over the November vote is hurting U.S. growth prospects.

The survey downgraded its U.S. GDP forecast for 2016 to just 1.8%, from a target of 2.2% in March and a 2.6% prediction in December. The NABE sees slowdowns in everything from business investment and consumer spending to industrial production and corporate profits.

If I’m an owner of a medium-sized business and I’m hearing very rattling news about the election, on the margin I’ll be a little more cautious about hiring or making an investment, NABE President Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly told Bloomberg.

Deutsche Bank sees recession this year: Thus, the seeds for a new recession have already been sown. Several economists from major firms are now saying so. The risks to the outlook remain skewed towards the downside, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. Global growth will likely remain below trend for a while longer and recession risks will likely remain a more topical subject than overheating risks.

Deutsche Bank sees the risk of a recession coming as soon as the next quarter. Noting that corporate profit margins historically peak several quarters before a recession, the firm warned that the economy could enter recession as soon as the second half of this year.

And the May jobs data also got the attention of Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, who found similarities in the payrolls report with previous recessionary periods. I don’t want to alarm anyone but the facts are the facts, and the fact here is simply that this is precisely the sort of rundown we saw in November 1969, May 1974, December 1979, October 1989, November 2000 and May 2007.

Each one of these periods presaged a recession just a few months later the average being five months.

For more signs that a recession could be starting to unfold, see Financial Senses April 26 article titled 15 Warning Signs of Possible Market Top, Recession Next Year.

Recession will keep Fed printing: Why is a potential recession on the horizon important to gold prices? Because the Federal Reserve won’t be raising interest rates with any degree of intensity with an economic slowdown taking shape, and gold tends to perform better during low-rate environments because it pays no interest.

And even if the Fed does launch one or two rate hikes this year, it likely is doing so because it needs the ability to cut rates, which are still already near zero, once the existence of a recession becomes undeniable.

Though Summers and his ilk are keen to make Trump the fall guy for the next recession, the truth is that this is the weakest economic recovery in U.S. history and its already long in the tooth. Regardless of who wins the presidency in November, loose Fed monetary policy and overall economic uncertainty will continue to bolster gold as a go-to safe-haven asset.

Gold roars back as U.S. economys jobs creation falls off cliff

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And thus died the June rate hike, wrote Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics after the Labor Department released the most devastatingly dismal employment data since September 2010.

And as odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase expired, gold roared back to life, rising from session lows near $1,210 to execute a more than 2% surge back above $1,240 its best one-day showing in seven weeks. Silver also gained, rising 2.4% to hit $16.35.

What fueled golds resuscitation? Though the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, the nonfarm-payrolls report showed that only 38,000 jobs were created in May well short of the roughly 165,000 expected while Aprils print of 160,000 was reduced to 123,000.

Not even a magician can take this number and make it sound good, Prudential Financial strategist Quincy Krosby told The Wall Street Journal. For a Fed that seems to want to raise rates, this is not helpful.

Recoverys bubble laid bare: That was very disappointing and adds a lot of uncertainty to a market that was gearing up for a summer rate hike from the Fed,Danske Bank analyst Allan von Mehren told Bloomberg. It makes people question the real strength of the labor market.

Just when they come out and start talking about how good the economy is, we get some of the worst economic data in the recovery, Euro Pacific Capital chief Peter Schiff added. This recovery has never been real. Its always been a bubble, and bubbles pop. Thats their nature.

The only thing keeping the Fed from cutting rates right now and admitting the economys in trouble is A) their credibility, and B) the election, he said. They dont want to admit how weak the economy is and undercut (President Barack) Obama and (Democratic presidential front-runner) Hillary (Clinton).

Goldman sees zero chance of June hike: FTN Financial called the jobs report awesomely bad, while Goldman Sachs declared, We have revised our subjective odds of the timing of the next FOMC rate increase. We now see probabilities of 0% for June, 40% for July, and 30% for September.

Likewise, the CMEs FedWatch tool, which tracks futures bets on Fed action, also indicated that Wall Street thinks the central banks hawks have been silenced for now in the wake of the report.

Indeed, Fed Governor Lael Brainard sounded cautious on the timing of the next rate increase. In this environment, prudent risk management implies there is a benefit to waiting for additional data, she told the Council on Foreign Relations.

Now that the Fed likely is on hold, the dollar fell along with Treasury yields, while stocks also were in the red by early afternoon.

With all the analysts coming out of the woodwork to declare gold dead after the Fed started making some rate-hike noises, the new jobs report is a serious wakeup call. Certainly we could see the market back up to $1,300 again, trader Eric Zuccarelli told CNBC.

Headline: 1909 VDB Lincoln cent proof commands $41,125

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In the rare coin world, its not all about just gold and silver. Even the lowly cent, or penny, can command hundreds or even thousands of dollars.

One penny did just that at a high-profile sale in May. The copper in question: a 1909 Lincoln cent with designer Victor D. Brenners initials (VDB) on the bottom of the reverse. But the real selling point: The specimen was a hard-to-find proof version. The end result: The coin sold for $41,125.

Brenners initials famously adorn the inaugural Lincoln cent, but controversy erupted over their presence, and the offending letters were discontinued until 1918, when the initials were restored, this time on the obverse side, on the presidents shoulder.

The most famous doubled die coin: Blanchard and Company also has an interesting Lincoln cent currently in stock (as of June 3, 2016): a 1955 doubled die version certified as MS64 Red by PCGS and featuring a green CAC sticker.

Profiling the coin and its potent price performance in a 2009 feature, one expert wrote at PCGS: The 1955 Doubled Die Lincoln cent is unquestionably the most famous doubled die coin in the entire Lincoln cent series and possibly the most famous doubled die coin in numismatics.

The doubling on the 1955 Doubled Die cent is very dramatic and can easily seen with the naked eye. The doubling is most prominent on the date, the word LIBERTY and in the motto IN GOD WE TRUST.

Highly coveted error coin: What is a doubled-die coin? A die that has been given two misaligned impressions from a hub; also, a coin made from such a die, reads the Red Book. Thus, double-dies are a form of error coin and are highly collectible.

In the 1955 cents case, a working hub and a working die clashed and created the doubling effect, with about 20,000 to 24,000 produced and put into circulation with regular coins, of which more than 330 million were minted. However, many of the doubled-die cents possibly got lost in circulation and the number of surviving examples may be more like 10,000 to 15,000 in all grades combined.

Many doubled-die cents famously found their way into circulation via cigarette machines, which included two cents inside each pack to refund change to tobacco buyers who paid a quarter for the smokes (vending machines at the time apparently lacked that capability).

Visit Blanchard and Companys Web site to see images of this famed doubled-die example. As of June 3, Blanchard also has several other rare pennies in stock, including: an 1856 Flying Eagle cent, PR64 PGCS CAC; an 1859 Indian Head cent, MS65 PCGS CAC; an 1877 Indian Head cent, VF20 Brown PGGS; and a 1908-S Indian Head cent, MS65 PCGS with green CAC sticker.

Golds Run Back to Record Levels: Is the Fed Setting the Stage for That Now?

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As talk of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate at its June or July meeting intensifies and financial markets move in anticipation what, if anything, are the pundits missing?

There is widespread concern in Asia (especially China) and in Europe about the anemic pace of regional and global economic growth. Both the IMF and the World Bank have been nudging their GDP forecasts lower for months. In response, many central banks are looking for ways to inject more monetary stimulus and push interest rates toward zero or further into negative territory.

In contrast, some Fed policymakers seem to be looking to provide less stimulus, arguing that the headwinds restraining U.S. growth are easing. An increase in the federal funds rate and ongoing strong demand for Treasuries by foreign buyers would in all likelihood result in a resumption of upward pressure on the dollar. But is it really possible?

Markets arent prepared for a hawkish Fed: The Lindsey Groups chief market analyst, Peter Boockvar, doesnt think so. Were seven years into a bull market that has been elevated by Fed easing, so you take that away, and I dont think thats something the markets ever prepared for, he told CNBC on May 23.

Economic fundamentals dont support any sort of aggressive Fed action. I dont think the Feds going to be able to get away with a multitude of rate hikes other than maybe just one more, Boockvar added. Look at the context that theyre raising in: The economys now growing less than 2%, earnings are now declining, profit margins are now rolling over, manufacturing is flatlining, and markets are very expensive. And to raise rates in that context, I dont think theyre going to be able to get away with much more.

Significant events on the 2016 calendar also weigh against Fed rate-hike odds. The June 23 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom, in which voters decide whether to leave the European Union, occurs just a few days after the Fed meets, and the central bank likely will be loathe to act before that major international event is resolved. The November presidential election in the U.S. also could keep the Fed on hold, lest it be accused of unduly influencing the outcome.

Overdue for recession, and Yellens out of ammo: However, some Fed watchers think the central bank might actually deliver one more rate hike this year, because it sees the writing on the wall: Another recession is looming. Therefore, Chairwoman Janet Yellen has to raise rates now in order to cut them later when the slowdown becomes undeniable. With the federal funds rate now between .25% and .50%, the Fed has no ammunition left to stimulate the economy in a pronounced downturn.

And that downturn is long overdue, as the economic expansion following the 2008-09 financial crisis is now the fourth-longest on record, at 83 months. If the next president is not going to have a recession, it will be a U.S. record, Conference Board economist Gad Levanon noted. The longest expansion we ever had was 10 years, starting in 1991.

In recent weeks plenty of respected number crunchers from former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein to JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli and former Reagan-era budget chef David Stockman have warned that the next president almost inevitably will face recession, no matter who is elected.

Unrealistic to expect major tightening: If we accept the notions that the U.S. is overdue for a recession and that any sane central bank does not raise rates heading into a slowdown, then we have to believe in gold. In order to be bearish on gold, you have to believe that the Fed is going to embark on 100 to 200 basis points of hikes over the next couple of years, which I think is completely unrealistic, Boockvar said in a May 24 appearance on CNBCs Futures Now. This is an ideal opportunity for those who have not gotten in.

Boockvar thinks gold ultimately will take out the nominal record high above $1,900 that was set in September 2011. This is just the beginning of a new bull market in the metals, Boockvar predicted.

Rising rates very bearish for stocks: Even if the Fed does hike one or more times, Boockvar and other analysts dispute the conventional wisdom that says the dollar will automatically strengthen to golds detriment. History is rife with periods, from the 1970s bull market in gold to the mid-2000s, when the Fed lifted rates and the precious metal rose anyway.

How can gold rise during rising rates? As Adam Hamilton has so eloquently stated: Rising and higher interest rates are actually bullish for gold for one simple reason. And that is they are actually very bearish for stocks and bonds. Where have we seen this movie before? At the beginning of 2016, when U.S. stock markets cratered in the wake of the Feds first interest-rate hike in almost a decade, in December 2015.

Stocks have recovered somewhat since then, but thats because the Feds been quiet. Prepare now for the potential of renewed volatility in the stock market as the June and July Fed meetings near, whether or not the Fed moves. The growing likelihood of another rate hike should be a glaring technical sign to any tape-watcher, Boockvar said. I dont believe the dollar breaks out higher on another rate hike, and I therefore remain bullish on gold and silver and other commodities.

It is difficult to see how risks would narrow in the face of growing divergences, actual and anticipated.

OECD warns the world is caught in a low-growth trap

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Former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan recently voiced fresh concerns about the global economy, telling Fox News, I think you have a very profound long-term problem of economic growth at the time when in the Western world there is a very large migration from being a worker to being a recipient of social benefits.

Now this week the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is echoing Greenspans concerns about slowing global growth.

The Paris-headquartered group, which advises 34 member nations, just published its latest Economic Outlook, and the findings are sobering. Global growth has languished over the past eight years as OECD economies have struggled to average only 2% per year, and emerging markets have slowed, with some falling into deep recession, it wrote.

Central banks out of bullets: The world is trapped in a self-fulfilling stagnation loop, and central banks are out of policy tools to combat the problem, its analysts wrote.

It is clear that the reliance on monetary policy alone has failed to deliver satisfactory growth and inflation, it said. Additional monetary policy easing could now prove to be less effective than in the past, and even counterproductive. Low rates are putting massive pressure on bank profits and pension funds, while forcing citizens to save more money rather than spend, it said.

U.S. growth forecast slashed: What do member nations have to do to reverse the stagnation? Take advantage of low interest rates to borrow more to invest in growth-inducing investment and infrastructure projects, for one, it advised.

The need is urgent to act now, OECD chief economist Catherine Mann said. The longer the global economy remains in the low-growth trap, the more difficult it will be to break the negative feedback loops, revive market forces, and boost economies to the high-growth path. As it is, a negative shock could tip the world back into another deep downturn.

Overall a rather mediocre, a rather dismal outlook, OECD Secretary-General,Angel Gurria lamented. Trade is growing at 2% to 3%; it should be growing at 7%.

Hand-in-hand with its grim outlook, the OECD slashed its combined growth estimate for its member nations, from 2.2% to 1.8% this year and from 2.3% to 2.1% in 2017. It also cut its U.S. economic forecast, from 2% this year to just 1.8%.

Major downside risk in Brexit: And the OECD is warning of a massive loss of growth in the United Kingdom should its citizens approve the June 23 Brexit referendum, which would allow Britain to leave the European Union. A potential Brexit is a major downside risk, the effects of which could be felt worldwide, it said.

A Brexit would hurt the whole world by leading to economic uncertainty and hinder trade growth, with global effects being even stronger if the British withdrawal from the EU triggers volatility in financial markets, it predicted.

A Brexit would cost each UK worker the equivalent of about $4,600 a year by 2030, and perhaps even more, the OECD said, while UK GDP post-Brexit would be 5% smaller by 2030 a major negative shock.

Chinese economy struggling: As the OECD issued its report, fresh economic data underscored its concerns. Three separate surveys of Chinese economic activity released Wednesday revived doubts over the durability of the recovery in the worlds second-largest economy, CNBC reported, citing the May PMI report, the Caixin manufacturing index, and a survey of Chinas services industry.

Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index, the bellwether gauge for global trade, is at one of its lowest levels ever, Business Insider noted. Its up 109% since bottoming this past February but is still 9% below its previous lowest levels of December 2008 during the worst depths of the global economic crisis. And its down 95% from its all-time highs of May 2008.

U.S. data present mixed picture: And in the U.S., construction spending in April plunged to its lowest level since 2009, and while the Institute for Supply Managements PMI manufacturing gauge for May surprised to the upside, so-called hard data on manufacturing has been generally weak, CNBC reported. Nonetheless, with a relatively positive Beige Book economic survey out Wednesday, the odds of a Fed rate hike are rising.

It remains to be seen whether the OECD member nations will take the organizations advice. However, its clear that what the central banks have been doing for the past decade isnt working. With the odds increasing of a new downturn erupting after a Brexit or an ill-timed Fed rate hike, now is the time to invest in the financial insurance policies of gold and silver bullion plus rare coins.

Gold and silver coin sales boom during May price pullback

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Theres no sugarcoating the fact that the Federal Reserves hawkish talk of an imminent interest-rate hike has spooked the precious metals market.

For the month of May, gold lost 6% while silver surrendered 10%. However, both metals remain up roughly 15% each for the year, and seasonally, May is often a weaker month for gold prices, historical data show.

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A short-term pullback: And with a relatively positive Beige Book released Wednesday, the odds of a Fed rate hike are now at 24% in June and 53% in July. But remember what happened after Decembers rate increase? Stocks fell, and gold and silver rose. The price weakness in the metals before the Feds year-end move was a great time to get in. Is that happening again now?

Investors who can see the forest for the trees see golds dip as an opportunity in disguise. One of the hardest things to do is to be patient, Adam Koos of Libertas Wealth Management Group told MarketWatch. For now, if youre not in the trade, Id be looking to get in at these prices. The market is telling me that gold broke its long-term downtrend a few months ago and what were seeing today is simply a short-term pullback in an overall long-term positive trend.

Mints year-on-year gold sales pop: And Koos isnt alone in that buy the dip line of thought. The U.S. Mints bullion sales continue to go through the roof compared with this time last year.

In May the Mint sold 76,500 ounces of gold American Eagle coins. That totals down 27.5% from April but up 255.8% compared with May 2015. Year to date, sales total 427,500 ounces to more than double the 197,000 ounces sold during the January to May period in 2015, Coin News noted.

Gold American Buffalo coin sales hit 18,500 ounces in May a 5% dip from April but about double the total of 9,500 ounces purchased in May 2015. Year to date, sales at 98,000 ounces are 29.8% higher than the 75,500 ounces sold during the first five months of last year, Coin News confirmed.

Silver Eagle selling at record clip: And silver American Eagles remain absolutely on fire, with more than 4.498 million ounces sold in May despite rationing by the Mint up more than 10% versus Aprils sales and more than 122% higher than those sold in May 2015. With more than 23.4 million ounces sold so far in 2016, the Mint is well on its way toward breaking 2015s record sales tally of 47 million, with its current pace more than 38% higher than at the same time last year.

In addition to booming coin sales, gold ETF inflows increased by 80 tons in May despite the price dip. But for some gold experts, ETFs are no substitute for the real thing.

ETFs might not suffice in the future: Were getting to the point where people are going to be able to see the picture, and at that point gold is the answer, Vulpes Investment Management adviser Grant Williams said in a recent interview. Its not just an asset anymore; its the answer to a lot of peoples questions. When that happens, I think the most important stage of this completes itself and that is the resolution between the paper price and the physical asset. I think when we get to that point where people want to own gold, ETFs wont suffice anymore. A promise to deliver three months hence is not going to be sufficient anymore; people are going to want to own the asset. At that point you realize that there are multiple hundreds of claims per ounce, and those claims wont be worth anything anymore. Its going to be the asset, and thats the end game.

He added, I dont buy gold; I own it. I dont buy gold at $1,100 because I think its going to go to $1,200. I buy it for what it does, not what the price is. The price is the last consideration for me.

Dont be caught without the ultimate financial-crisis insurance: that is, physical gold and silver.

Black swans swarming as busy June gets under way

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The Group of Seven gathering wrapped up last week with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abes warning about the dangers of a new Lehman-style collapse being downplayed by his colleagues. Now this week come renewed concerns from French banking giant Societe Generale about some looming black swans on the horizon.

 

8 of past 10 Junes have been rough: And in the shorter term, brace yourself for a potentially volatile month ahead. June historically can be the worst for financial markets. Eight of the last ten June’s has been down, Martin Currie fund manager Michael Browne told CNBC. It is the worst month of the year in the last decade, not by a little bit but by an absolute street.

And UBS just outlined some major events coming fast and furious in June that could unsettle markets. The Swiss banks list includes three major central-bank meetings (the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan), along with key votes in Europe: the United Kingdoms June 23 Brexit referendum on whether to leave the European Union, as well as Spain’s June 26 general elections.

 

Euro uncertainty is top risk: On the macro level, SocGen warns that risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside. It compiled its own list of so-called black swan events unexpected or surprise occurrences with the power to affect the world. Its top black swans are:

  1. Double-drag from European policy uncertainty: 40%
  2. China hard landing: 30%
  3. Sharp re-pricing of Fed expectations: 25%
  4. Sharply weaker global growth: 20%

Commenting on the risks in Europe, its analysts wrote, With a very busy political agenda lined up for the coming quarters, the risk of an event delivering an unexpected outcome remains high, be it the OMT (outright monetary transactions) judgment from the German Constitutional Court on June 21, the U.K. Brexit referendum on June 23, Spanish election on June 26, Italian referendum in October and heading into 2017, elections in France, Germany, Netherlands and possibly Italy.

Bubble building in Chinese real estate: China’s economic problems, which shocked global markets in the past year and sent gold prices soaring, haven’t gone away either. The potential for policy errors in China is substantial, and all the more so since a new bubble appears to be building in the property market, the bank wrote. The authorities are clearly keen to start recognizing and tackling the mountain of non-performing loans. The approach will be one of trial and error, with the downside risks implied in the name.

The main concern for U.S. markets continues to be the likelihood of an interest-rate increase from the Fed. SocGen sees the central bank standing pat on rates until December, but its pronouncements along the way can rattle investors.

If the Fed sends too hawkish a message, the risk is that the re-pricing could turn disorderly. On the flip side, too dovish a Fed could see bond markets unnerved by higher inflation readings and an ever tighter labor market, SocGen said.

Although it thinks the risks of a global recession have receded somewhat, the triggers remain in place. A prolonged negative market response is the most likely mechanism to take a slowdown to outright recession, it warned.

With so many uncertainties looming in the next 30 days and beyond, investors should consider adding precious metals to their portfolios as a time-tested financial insurance policy. The ride ahead could be bumpy without it.

Gold screams oversold as Commerzbank hails good opportunity to buy

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The week before the Memorial Day holiday weekend was brutal for gold, but with trading resuming Tuesday, bargain hunters stepped in to snap up some of the yellow metal.

Any why not buy now? Bloomberg reports that golds relative strength index shows that the metal is now entering oversold levels. Gold-linked exchange-trade funds are holding up so far. ETF investors see the current price weakness as being merely temporary and are taking advantage of price falls as a good opportunity to buy, Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note. We also believe that the current dip is merely a correction rather than a prolonged downswing.

And in contrast, an analysis of price-to-sales ratios shows that stocks are even more expensive than they were during the tech bubble in 2000.

Fed move could be priced in: Up about 1%, gold was trading near $1,216 by Tuesday afternoon. Silver struggled in comparison and was trading just under $16 in the afternoon session.

With gold having shed about 6% in the month of May, investors know that as long as the metal holds the $1,200 level, the near-term picture is solid. With gold up, it suggests the Fed fears are already marked into the market, RBC Wealth Management exec George Gero said Tuesday of expectations that the Federal Reserve might soon raise interest rates.

Some poor U.S. economic data also gave gold a boost and dented stocks, with the Dow Jones turning negative for the month of May. A consumer confidence poll published by The Conference Board showed a plunge to 10-month lows. Meanwhile, two manufacturing gauges confirmed that the industrial sector remains in a veritable recession: The Chicago PMI barometer fell back into contraction mode, while the Dallas Federal Reserves survey logged its 17th straight month in negative territory.

Poll confirms Brexit fears rising: And Fed watchers no doubt have been watching recent polls showing that the tide could be turning toward a Brexit, or United Kingdom voters choosing to leave the European Union in a June 23 national referendum. A Guardian newspaper poll both online and via telephone found that a majority of Brits (52% versus 48%) favor a Brexit.

With the referendums outcome extremely uncertain, the U.S. Fed likely will be very loathe to raise interest rates at its June meeting, and that rate-hike threat has been perhaps the biggest reason for the metals pullback from $1,300.

Crucial jobs report due Friday: Investors also will be looking to Fridays nonfarm-payrolls report from the U.S. Labor Department for more clues on what the Fed might do with interest rates at its June meeting. A low number might almost ensure that the central bank stands pat, as it has set jobs creation as one of the rationales for its easy-money policies. Several economists already are predicting a disappointing set of numbers in the report.

A negative jobs report could give gold prices a leg up from recent lows, making the current level near $1,220 a bargain entry price for investors looking to get into precious metals or fortify their positions even further.

Another news event that investors should be aware of is Fed chief Janet Yellens speech set for June 6 in Philadelphia, at which she could give further clues on the central banks near-term policy. At this point, though, it appears that July would be the likeliest rate-hike month if one occurs soon. June is too close to the Brexit vote, while the September and November meetings are uncomfortably close to the U.S. presidential election.

Silver could zoom to a record $140 by 2019, mining CEO predicts

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The market for silver got a little brighter this week with the release of two strong real-estate reports: New-home sales jumped in April, while pending-home sales hit their highest level in a decade.

Silver famously enjoys a dual nature as a monetary metal and a commodity. Because of silver’s strong industrial applications, which run from solar power to appliances and insulation, the housing data were seen as bullish for the metal.

Traders are all looking at the pending home sales, which were terrific, and you had good new-home sales, RBC Wealth Management exec George Gero told Bloomberg. That’s been helping silver. Basically, they’re looking at it as an industrial metal, not as a precious metal.

The housing reports follow news from the Royal Canadian Mint, which saw its silver Maple Leaf coins hit an all-time sales record in the first quarter, as well as bullish supply-and-demand prognoses from Thomson Reuters GFMS and the Silver Institute.

We’ve also seen some major firms and investment banks increase their silver-price targets, including CPM Group, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Deutsche Bank.

But the latest price target touted by a mining official this week takes the cake. First Majestic Silver Corp. CEO Keith Neumeyer is now predicting three-digit silver.

For the near term, Neumeyer said, The bottom is in. Were in the beginning of a new bull phase in a very cyclical market. Gold prices are being very supportive here. Silver prices have moved higher obviously. I think we’ll end in the $20 range in silver and probably around $1,500 gold by the end of the year.

For the longer haul, his three-digit silver forecast is for $140 by 2019! That would be almost triple the roughly $50 peak last seen in 2011. The highest projection among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is $57 an ounce in 2019, the news agency noted.

Neumeyer’s $20 target looks reasonably realistic for the coming months, but his $140 forecast disputed by several analysts interviewed by Bloomberg is certainly rich food for thought.