Silver rips above $21 amid July Fourth fireworks
Posted on — Leave a commentWhile Americans were busy barbecuing and shooting fireworks on July Fourth, the precious metals market saw renewed fireworks thanks in part to Chinese investors.
Silver especially sparkledMonday, launching a 7% run higher and climbing above $21 for the first time since July 2014 before easing Tuesday near $19.88.
Silver has gained 47% at its peak in 2016 and has risen by 55% since its December 2015 lows. In contrast, gold is up about 27% for the year.
The gold-silver ratio, or the number of ounces of silver needed to buy a single ounce of gold, fell to around 64:1, its lowest level since August 2014. Thats down from the 83:1 peak reached in February.
Concerns over Brexit aftershocks continue to fuel the ascent of both gold and silver, but another factor played intoMondayssure in silver: Chinese investors.
The price of silver surged to a two-year highon Mondayas buyers in China made bold bets in the futures market and scooped up vast volumes of physical metal, The Wall Street Journalreported. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most actively traded silver futures contract jumped for a fourth straight sessionon Monday, hitting its 6% daily maximum at opening to reach 4,419 yuan ($663) akilogram.
An increasing number of commodity-trading platforms in China also helped driveMondaysaction. The emergence of commodity trading venues in China has, however, changed the balance in the market, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen noted. Back in April,a sudden rise in demand for steel rebar and iron ore futures from Chinese day traders triggered a major surge in daily volumes.
However, silver also is commonly viewed as a high-power play on golds movement, with the white metal often outpacing the yellow metal in percentage gains in bullish markets. And so, following the Brexit vote traders around the world, not least in China, have increasingly cast their eyes on silver, Hansennoted.
Western demand also is supporting silver. Holdings in silver-linked ETFs hit record highs in June, and coin and bar consumption remains robust. One United Kingdom bullion dealertold Bloombergthat silver buying was trumping gold purchases at his firm.
The UK demand for Silver Britannia coins is very strong, he said. Three times more than average.
And in the U.S., sales of the Mints silver American Eagle bullion coins continue at a record-breaking pace, with938,000 ounces sold in the pre-holiday week the best weekly total since late May. So far, investors have snapped up more than 26.2 million silver Eagles 20% more than at the same time last year.
Silver has benefited from its dual identity as both a monetary metal and a key manufacturing component. The metal continues to be buoyed by its unique position as both an industrial metal in risk-on conditions and a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty, MKS trader Sam Laughlin noted.
In addition to the digital and medical industries, silver also is crucial to the burgeoning solar-power sector.”Silver is increasingly used in solar panels now, Jeremy Wrathall of Investecsaid. Something like 10% of demand comes from solar panels. Solar panels is a growing source of demand for silver, so you have got an additional attraction for silver as well, as a commodity investment and also industrial usage.”
Although silvers profit-taking pullback in the wake ofMondayspowerful surge was expected, the metal likely is building a base for further moves higher as the fallout from the Brexit referendum continues torattle global financial markets.
10-year U.S. Treasury bonds yield plummets to record low
Posted on — Leave a commentNegative-yielding sovereign bonds around the world now totalat least $11.7 trillion. Switzerlands 50-year bondhas fallen into negative territoryfor the first time in history. And now the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bondhit a record lowon Tuesday.
Its the only way to find income, Allianz Global Investors bond expert Franck Dixmierlamented. And Morgan StanleyInvestment Management fund manager Jim Caronasked, When you look at pension liabilities, insurance, where are you going to get a positive yield? At this point, its the best the market can do.
So, a roughly 1.3% return over 10 years (not even accounting for inflation) is the best the market can do? You dont have to look far for alternatives. Just look at two of the top-performing assets of 2016: gold and silver. Gold has gained as much as 27%, while silver has returned an astounding 44% at its zenith.
The pension funds and insurance companies Caron cites are woefully underinvested in the precious-metals sphere. Moreover, many are facing huge unfunded liabilities. A Citigroup study published this year found that20 countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developmentare facing liabilities totaling $78 trillion!
Negative yieldswill have a massive and negative effect on most pension schemes funding plans,predictedWarren Firth, actuarial director at Broadstone in the United Kingdom.
If yields continue to fallworldwide, many of these funds will plunge further into a sea of red ink. And if the U.S. economy takes a turn for the worse, or contagion from the Brexit situation spills over beyond Europe, then the Federal Reserve could well beforced to consider negative interest rates.
Yields in even Treasury bonds are so low that we already are seeing negative real interest rates in the U.S. Negative rates are rocket fuel for gold prices, as the World Gold Councilhas demonstrated, while they make business more difficult in many ways for banks as well as pension funds.
A move by the Fed into negative rates could take even more shine off already-anemic Treasury yields. At that point, golds attractiveness as a viable alternative to dismal yields could gain even further ground.
Institutional gold buying by central banks has been a key pillar of support for gold over the past few years. Increasing engagement from pension funds desperately searching for yield could mark the next leg up for a renewed bull market in gold.
Weve already seen high-profile moves into physical gold in recent years from Texasteacher-retirementanduniversity- endowmentsystems, whileJapanese pension fundshave increasingly sought safety in bullion.
Look for interest in gold to grow as investors balk at paying fees to hold government bonds or to keep their money in negative-yielding bank accounts. And should another debt-ceiling debacle dent the faith of global investors in U.S. Treasuries, look for that growing interest in gold to become, potentially, a stampede.
Brexit-fueled money printing will send gold to $4,200, CLSA analyst says
Posted on — Leave a commentWith silver backing off from its blistering July Fourth run above $21, gold finished Tuesday near two-year highs in a fifth straight trading day of gains.
The metal was trading at $1,355 by midafternoon, while silver dropped about 2% to touch $19.89.
And in another sign the concerns over the United Kingdoms Brexit vote are being felt globally, bullion sales at a top Japanese gold retailer, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K.,jumped 1.8-foldbetween June 24 and July 4, versus the previous week.
Gold-linked exchange-traded funds also continue to draw investors who have been bruised by stock-market volatility, with holdingsrising by 500 tonsin the first half of 2016.
“Safe haven demand has continued to grow, Phil Streible of R.J. O’Brientold Reuters. A lot of people believe that global monetary easing worldwide is going to continue.
Indeed, at the epicenter of the Brexit turmoil, the British poundplunged to a fresh 31-year low. Meanwhile, the Bank of England partnered with eight major commercial banks and promised to stand at the ready with more liquidity, saying the fallout has just begun.”There is evidence that some risks have begun to crystallise. The current outlook for UK financial stability is challenging,” itwrote.
And a top European Central Bank official warned that the UK is facing simultaneous inflationary and recessionary forces. In the short term there is a difficult challenge for the British economic and monetary policy between two contradictory challenges: There is the challenge of inflation, with the effects on inflation of the fall of the pound, which is down 11 percent since Brexit, said Francois Villeroy de Galhau.
And then there is recession challenge with the tendency to see less growth due to the uncertainty impact on investments. And it is always very complicated for monetary and economic policy to be caught in this dilemma.
The Bank of Englands governor, Mark Carney, has already hinted that more quantitative easing andinterest-rate cuts are on the way, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts concurred. Given the uncertainty and likely economic downturn, we expect the BOE to use its financial crises play book, they wrote. That means ignoring sterling-driven inflation, quickly taking interest rates to, or close to, zero and subsequently restarting QE.
And here in the U.S., investors were preparing for the release of the Federal Reserves latest minutes, dueWednesday, and also girding forFridaysrelease of the June employment report.
A factory-orders report for May was released Tuesday,showing a 1% drop. Zero Hedge noted that this marks the 19thstraight monthly year-over-year decline in the metric.In 60 years of historical data, the U.S. economy has never, ever suffered a 19-month stretch of consecutive annual declines, itwrote.
And with the end of June comes the start of another corporate earnings season, with analysts forecasting the longest profit recession since the financial crisis, Londons Financial Timesreported.
With all this pressure on the Fed not to rock a precarious global economy with an interest-rate hike, furthertightening seems off the table for the rest of 2016, at the least. Some experts are even predicting more easing from the Fed in the coming months, with JimRickards of Strategic Intelligencetelling CNBC, Maybe the Feds next move is a rate cut some time next year. Fed chief Janet Yellens needs the weaker dollar to import inflation into the U.S. The Feds nowhere near their inflation target.
As global central banks launch the same old tools to control the Brexit crisis, with bond yields plunging further into negative territory, other gold watchers are predicting new record highs.
“I think over the next 18 months we’ll make new all-time highs,” Swiss Asia Capital’s Juerg Kienersaid. “No, I’m not going to give you a number because I don’t know insane central bankers can be. They are surprising me all the time with new stuff.”
ButChristopher Wood of CLSA is giving us a number. A long-term bullish view is maintained on gold bullion, with the ultimate price target now set at US$4,200 an ounce, Woodtold clientsTuesday.
This is because the view here remains that central banks, including most importantly the Federal Reserve,will not be able to exit from unconventional monetary policy in a benign manner and will remain committed to ongoing balance-sheet expansion in one form oranother. Such policies will ultimately discredit central banks pursuing unconventional monetary policy, threatening the stability and indeed integrity of the current fiat-paper-money system.
With the United Kingdom Voting for Brexit, the Whole World Is Now Voting for Gold
Posted on — Leave a commentOn Thursday, June 23, the United Kingdom left an indelible mark in the history books when it voted to leave the European Union, forever changing the world for investors, politicians, and European residents. Although political commentators and central bankers may provide the image of confidence and security, no one knows for certain what the future now holds for the world, and specifically, the financial markets.
From Japan to the United States, equities, currencies, and virtually every other risky asset unanimously sold off throughout the reporting of the Brexit polls as the Leave campaign gained favor and appeared likely to win.
However, gold, the one asset that didnt have a stark intraday selloff, traded as high as $1362.60 an ounce, which is its highest level since 2013. In times of severe uncertainty, such as the UK leaving the EU for the first time in the history of the world (a.k.a. Brexit), investors from all over the world seek refuge in safe assets like gold.
Biggest one-day surge since Lehman: Gold futures trading on the CME for August delivery, which ultimately determine the value of any form of tangible gold (like a ring or necklace), gained almost 6% intraday after it was ascertained that the Remain group would mathematically have to win before the polls officially closed; this was a one-day surge in the price of gold not seen since the infamous collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Although it may sound histrionic, the sheer impact that Brexit has on the entire world, and specifically on the price of gold, cannot be underscored enough.
From a fundamentals standpoint, there is simply no reason not to own gold in a time of such turmoil. Besides the inherently limited supply of gold that provides a logical reason to buy, the current demand for gold in times of market turmoil and uncertainty is off the charts.
Aftershocks could last for years: Ned Schmidt, the renowned author of the Value View Gold Report, described how Brexit is a once-in-a-lifetime event that decimates any bearish assumptions about the price of gold. The case to buy gold becomes so much stronger when discussions about global markets now include the possibility of multiple recessions, currency devaluation, and inconceivably high volatility and fear.
The reasoning behind the belief that the price of gold will now continue to rise as a result of Britain leaving the EU is relatively straightforward. Besides the potential macroeconomic and political issues that Britains departure will create, there is, and likely will be, an extremely heightened sense of uncertainty for years. This uncertainty makes investors partake in a flight to quality, where they dump risky assets and purchase safe ones, like gold.
Safe-haven allure now undeniable: If an investor has money that they want to use, or are obligated to use (such as a multibillion dollar mutual fund that can influence market prices), they too are looking for safe investments, and this also makes the case for purchasing gold even more convincing.
Similarly, those who have a more pessimistic economic outlook, perhaps residents or banks in Britain whose currency has lost a whopping 10% in one day (the biggest drop in 30 years), would buy gold purely because holding cash in the local currency is just too risky.
At the end of a day filled with chaos, panic, and perplexity, history was unequivocally made with Brexit, and it is safe to say the scale utterly tipped in favor of buying gold.
5 major post-Brexit milestones in gold and silver
Posted on — Leave a commentBrexit has proven to be the icing on the cake for an already-stellar year in precious metals. With June now over, the top two metals were the best-performing assets for the month.
Gold finished the first half of the year with a 25% gain and is trading at more than two-year highs. The first six months of 2016 represent golds best first-half annual performance since at least 1980. Meanwhile, silver logged a 33% increase. What other milestones and even records have been set since the United Kingdom voted in favor of leaving the European Union?
- Silver has surged above $19: While golds 8.8% advance in June (its biggest monthly increase since February) was impressive, silver managed to outperform the yellow metal by breaking the $19 level for the first time since September 2014 in its best weekly move since August 2013 (with an 8% advance that saw it touch $19.40). The white metal returned a blistering 17% in June.
- Top gold ETF breaks all-time record: The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-trade fund, the worlds largestbullion-linkedETF, experienced its biggest inflows ever in the first half of the year. The more than $12 billion invested so far in 2016 is greater than what the fund gained in its biggest year ever, 2009. The GLD is attracting more capital now than 6,000 other ETFs tracked by Bloomberg and has added more than 300 metric tons for its highest level since at least July 2013. Meanwhile, holdings in all gold-backed ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have grown by 34% to 1,952 tons as of June 30.
- Trading volumes the best in 40 years: Futures volumes on the CME have never been higher in the first half of any other year. More than 28 million contracts were traded in the first six months of 2016.
- U.S. Mint coin sales higher than last year: The six-month rolling averages of the U.S. Mints gold and silver sales are both higher than a year ago, with $65 million spend on the yellow metal and $85 million invested in silver, according to a Convergex analysis. Of course, silver American Eagle sales are notably on course to smash last years all-time record of 47 million ounces, with 26.25 million already purchased. Gold American Eagle sales are almost 84% higher than where they were at this time last year, while gold Buffalo sales are nearly 17% greater than at the same time in 2015.
- Gold priced in the British pound retakes key level: Not only has gold priced in the U.S. dollar definitively broken through the $1,300 barrier, but gold denominated in sterling has rallied back above 1,000 pounds now that the Bank of England is vowing to cut rates and add billions worth of monetary accommodation to the financial system to ease post-Brexit stressors. UK investors have now seen pound-priced gold enjoy its best week since April 2013 and its best month since August 1982. Gold priced in the pound has returned an astounding 40% since the start of the year. Meanwhile, gold priced in the euro also had a breakout week.
With the smoke only just beginning to clear from the Brexit referendums aftermath, look for gold and silver potentially to reach more new milestones as 2016 unfolds.
12 top gold forecasts for 2016 in light of the game-changing Brexit vote
Posted on — Leave a commentLongtime gold bear Goldman Sachs was forced to upwardly revise its price targets for the next year as it became clear that the Brexit referendum would not only pass but also would inject entrenched uncertainty into financial markets for the foreseeable future.
What are some of the other major investment banks, money managers, mining executives, and metals experts saying about golds post-Brexit prospects?
Academia Capital: Golds going to end the year even higher, said the hedge funds chief investment officer, Ivan Szpakowski. People are realizing that Brexit is going to be a longer, drawn-out process. Thats still positive for gold. Id say thats the commodity that should end the year stronger.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group: Analysts reaffirmed their prediction of $1,400 gold prices over the next 12 months. There are still many questions regarding the U.K.s exit from the EU, they wrote. The ensuing political crisis in the U.K. and concern about the very future of the EU should keep investors on edge.
Credit Suisse: The Swiss bank sees gold reaching $1,500 by the first quarter of 2017. We raise our gold price forecast by 8% in H2/16 to $1,413/oz and 10% in 2017 to $1,450/oz on prolonged macro and political uncertainty following the Brexit vote, its analysts wrote. We see an extended timeframe for a negative real rate environment in the US and abroad and continued gold buying by central banks and consumers to diversify wealth. Our silver price forecast increases by 12%, to $18.75/oz, in H2/16 and by 15%, to $19.03/oz, in 2017, following gold.
Evolution Mining: I guess to me, the most interesting thing is: Are we seeing the first fault lines of a major correction and change in the financial and political systems? top executive Jake Klein told Bloomberg. If thats the case, then we could very well be at the early stages of a major bull market.
Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: For me, theres one currency that strikes be as being essentially, in the long run and amidst this environment of money printing, a no-brainer, and that is gold, Marc Faber told CNBC, predicting a new wave of post-Brexit monetary hijinks from global central banks. Now, is gold near-term overbought? Yes, it is. But longer-term, I think every investor should have some cash, which he would keep in yen or in dollars or in euros [and] should have some of this cash in gold. This is my preferred currency.
HSBC: Were looking for the market to get up to around the $1,400 level, said its top metals analyst, James Steel. Even before the UK vote, we had negative interest rates, which has actually been propelling gold to a degree higher all this year.
Insignia Consultants: Gold can cross $1,500 this year, said chief analyst Chintan Karnani, though he has doubts about whether the metal can hold that level. If the dollar gains substantially and expectations of another bull run in stock markets rise, then gold prices can fall to $1,176, he told MarketWatch.
Minelife: With the developments of recent weeks, I think theres every possibility that were looking at a price target between $1,400 and even $1,500 on the upside, said Gavin Wendt, raising his forecast from a previous upper range of $1,300. And I say that clearly and simply because gold ha already been moving strongly even before the Brexit vote. Gold was up very strongly against all major currencies.
Morgan Stanley: The investment bank has increased its 2016 price target by 8% and its 2017 forecast by 17%. Its ultimate target: $1,560. The firm says Brexit represents a brand new risk which has to be added to other positive factors for gold such as a languishing U.S. interest-rate cycle and Chinas high debt levels.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.: The Singapore-based firm, whose economist Barnabas Gan has been one of the most accurate price forecasters of recent years, is predicting the metal could hit $1,400 if the Federal Reserve doesnt raise rates, while a single rate hike would curb the metals rise to just $1,350. With U.K.s exit from the European Union, we expect the risk-off sentiment to persist into the months ahead, he wrote. Gans previous forecast saw $1,200 gold by the end of 2016.
Societe Generale: The usually gold-bearish French banking giant has nonetheless raised its third-quarter forecast to $1,330 and its fourth-quarter target to $1,350. It sees silver averaging $18 into 2017.
State Street Global Advisors: We have got the Brexit result, but that is a result without a resolution, said top strategist George Milling-Stanley. The resulting uncertainties will likely continue to roil financial markets, which should benefit gold. As for his price target, he said, It is not difficult to see $1,400 or even $1,450 by year end.
These forecasts shouldnt be taken as gospel, but the yellow metal has at least three strong factors supporting its advance: Brexit uncertainty; the likelihood of more money printing from central banks in form of quantitative easing, zero and negative interest rates, and so-called helicopter money; and golds post-Brexit ability to attract safe-haven inflows even as the U.S. dollar rises and U.S. stocks show some resilience.
Greenspan pledges allegiance to gold, warns of surprise inflation surge
Posted on — Leave a commentTo those who know Alan Greenspan only from his 1987-2006 tenure as chief of the Federal Reserve, his early years as a gold advocate and an acolyte of Objectivist philosopher Ayn Rand often come as a surprise.
His 1966 essay Gold and Economic Freedom, which appeared in some Rand publications, is still widely cited today. In it, Greenspan wrote a couple of zingers that carry huge weight in the modern economic landscape. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value, he noted. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights.
Fed chief embracing gold again: However, Greenspans subsequent legacy as Fed chief has drawn sharp criticism from some quarters. His alleged mismanagement of interest rates and other policy errors are blamed for disasters such as the dot-com bubble and the real-estate crash of 2007.
Nowadays, though, in a seeming effort to repair his legacy, the nonagenarian Greenspan seems to be on a perpetual reformation tour in which he publically re-embraces his pro-gold stance of the 1960s. His comments to the Council on Foreign Relations in 2014 turned heads: Gold is a currency, he confirmed. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.”
And now he has issued similar sentiments during a lengthy interview with the Bloomberg news agency in which he commented on issues ranging from the United Kingdoms Brexit from the European Union (a terrible outcome) to falling U.S. productivity and the governments growing entitlements burden.
Gold standard for a golden age: If we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure of the gold standard as it exited prior to 1913, we’d be fine, he said.Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive periods economically that we’ve had in the United States, and that was a golden period of the gold standard.I’m known as a gold bug and everyone laughs at me, but why do central banks own gold now?
On the state of the current U.S. economy, Greenspan said he sees no sign of a recession (Where have we heard that before? Think Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.) but rather stagnation, a term that evokes former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers theory that the global economy is now stuck in a low-growth trap of secular stagnation.
Greenspan also issued a surprising warning that should serve as a wakeup call for gold skeptics. The money supply, M2, which has always been a critical indicator of inflation, is for the first time, is going up remarkably steadily, 6-7%, almost a straight line, he noted. Its tilted up in the last several months; its added a percentage point or two. The thing that we should be worrying about now which we have actually given no thought to whatsoever is that this type of economic environment ends with inflation. Historically, fiat money has always ended up that way.
Human history full of surprise inflation: Although inflation hasnt reared its ugly head enough to register definitively on the standard price gauges such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, Greenspan reminds that thats exactly how inflation works: by stealth and surprise. I dont know when its coming. I know if you look at human history, there are times and times again when we thought that there was no inflation and everything was just going fine, and I just basically say, Wait, this is not the way this thing ordinarily turns out. I dont know; I cannot say I see it on the immediate horizon. In fact, commodity prices are soggy. The oil price has had a terrific impact on global inflation. Its not about to emerge quickly, but I would not be surprised to see the next unexpected move to be on the inflation side. You dont have inflation now, and you dont have it until it happens.
Whether you view Greenspan as The Maestro or a mook, his warning on inflation is a stark wakeup call for those who have dismissed the unprecedented waves of relentless money printing launched by the worlds central banks in the wake of the financial crisis. At least one school of economic thought tells us that inflation is inevitable, and given the massive expansion of central-bank balance sheets, it might not be mild in severity. The recent uptick in oil prices could provide the incipient spark that ignites the inflation Greenspan is anticipating. Gold is the go-to investment hedge against inflation, and it just got a major endorsement from one of the most widely followed figures in modern economics.
Chinas gold demand firing on all cylinders again in Brexits wake
Posted on — Leave a commentThe Chinese gold market has been notoriously opaque over the past few decades, but thats now changing as its Shanghai and Hong Kong metals exchanges increase their visibility with new investment products and growing participation from Western banks, and its central bank is now reporting additions to its official reserves.
And while some analysts say the United Kingdoms June 23 vote to exit, or Brexit, the European Union will have few lasting global economic effects, investors in China apparently beg to differ. The most eye-catching sign of Chinas post-Brexit gold rush is the surging action in its major bullion-linked exchange-traded fund.
Heeding warnings of recession and contagion from numerous reputable sources, Chinese investors are rushing to gold as a haven after the U.K.s vote to quit the European Union, Bloomberg reported Monday.
Turnover inHuaan Yifu Gold ETF, Chinas top exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, jumped to a record 1.27 billion yuan ($191 million) Friday after Britains vote, the news agency added. Outstanding shares of Huaan also reached a record 1.6 billion on June 20, jumping five-fold from the start of the year.
Sharp uptick at Shanghai exchange: For the past few years we only saw tepid Chinese interests in these gold funds, Shanghai Leading Investment Co.s Shihua Duan told the agency. Now theres a surge and a lot of people havent realized that this surge is only the beginning.
China has always been crazy about physical gold such as jewelry and coins, to the detriment of its ETF industry. The current holdings of the top four such funds only total about 28 tons even after major inflows this year; Duan argued that that number should rise eventually to at least 600 tons.
Meanwhile, activity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also erupted in the Brexit referendums wake. There has already been a sharp uptick in activity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the World Gold Council noted in a June 24 update. Trading volume spiked, reaching 346t compared to a daily average of close to 100t since the start of the year.
Hong Kong exports to mainland leap: In another sign of growing demand, Chinas imports from Hong Kong in May jumped to their highest level in five months, with 115 tons brought to the mainland for a 68% month-over-month increase and a 63% year-over-year rise.
Furthermore, in the leadup to the Brexit vote, Switzerlands gold exports to mainland China started rising, with a 36% month-over-month increase in May of 19 tons, while the 24 tons sent to Hong Kong almost tripled the previous months total.
The year 2016 has seen a topsy-turvy shift in gold-demand patterns. After a record level of gold consumption in China in January, Western investors who had forsaken gold in favor of stocks also found their way back to the metal as the U.S. stock market plunged early in the year. But Chinese demand appeared to ebb somewhat after the January peak, as did Western investment as equities stabilized. Now, though, with Brexits potential after-effects being felt globally, both Eastern and Western gold buyers seem to be returning simultaneously to the gold fold, and that bodes well for predictions of $1,400 and higher bullion prices.
Whats next for the markets after Brexit?
Posted on — Leave a commentThe timing of the Brexit vote and outcome was fortunate in the sense that it gave the financial markets a full weekend to digest the news and gather their bearings. Now that markets have resumed trading in a new week, many investors are wondering what fallout from the Brexit vote they can expect to see in the coming weeks and months.
As far as the financial markets are concerned, look for them to remain volatile for some time to come. Stock indexes are likely to fall as equity investors recalibrate their expectations after the run-up before the Brexit vote. Certain sectors may suffer more than others, in particular the banking sector as Treasury yields slide and interest rates follow suit. A potential market rebound wouldnt be surprising at some point, when well-capitalized investors seek out bargains in the stock, currency or commodities markets. Moreover, gold prices may pull back after the recent strong rally to safety when some traders look to take profits from these gains.
Its likely that market uncertainty will prevail in the near term as the dust from the Brexit referendum continues to settle. Were already seeing some unexpected post-Brexit reactions ripple through the political world in the U.K., with leadership changes affecting both major political parties. This instability is likely to test market psychology in the coming weeks.
Plus, investors should remain wary of a potential unexpected, unforeseen disruption to the financial markets. Trading was reported to be stressful and hectic but relatively smooth on Friday following the Brexit vote. That is a positive sign of the resiliency of the financial markets. Should something out of the blue occur, it will probably rattle the already shaky nerves of investors. Events in the next few weeks will test how much resiliency markets really have and if they can continue to operate efficiently.
Political uncertainty in the U.K. and the European Union will likely not abate anytime soon. The Brexit result may motivate citizens with strong anti-establishment views in other countries to push for their own referendums on sovereignty and the future of political unions. In the U.K. itself, there has been plenty of political chatter in the wake of the Brexit vote of Scotland and Northern Ireland breaking with Britain and forging their own ties with the European Union. The map of voting results shows near overwhelming support for Remain among citizens in Scotland and Northern Ireland compared to England and Wales. (See map at right.) Outside of the U.K., strong anti-E.U. opposition already exists and may look to Brexit for inspiration for staging their own referendums. (Could a Frexit be around the corner for France?)
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On the economic front, the effects of Brexit should land more heavily in the U.K., where economists are already predicting a significant slowdown in growth just stemming from the Brexit vote itself, before any changes actually occur with treaties or trade agreements. Ripples of an economic slowdown could wash up on E.U. shores, where Britain represents over 17% of the Eurozones gross domestic product. And because the U.K. is the fifth largest global economy, a drop in economic activity there could reach beyond Europe too, into the U.S. and Asia, although the effects arent likely to be as strong. How Brexit will really affect economic growth will likely remain uncertain for many months, because no one knows when Britain will actually start the formal process of E.U. withdrawal and what the outcomes of the new treaties and trade agreements will be. Differences in the expected timing of the exit are already apparent between Britain, where the process may be delayed until new leadership is in place, and the rest of Europe, where leaders from Germany and France have expressed their wishes for an earlier start to the U.K. formal withdrawal. |
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It will be interesting to watch the reaction to Brexit in other European countries and listen to how their leaders publicly discuss the future of relations with Britain. Many of these governments are facing elections of their own in the near future and fielding the passions of their sovereignty-minded citizens who have been energized by events in the U.K. These leaders may have an interest in making Britains abandonment of the European Union look difficult, and therefore an unattractive alternative to voters considering their own take on Brexit.
With all of this pervasive volatility and uncertainty, safe haven assets will continue to have an appeal to investors looking to downplay risk and protect their accumulated wealth.
Gold bear Goldman Sachs forced to raise price target by $100 as Brexit carnage deepens
Posted on — Leave a commentFinancial markets remain in deep turmoil Monday after the United Kingdoms historic vote for Brexit last week. One high-profile exception: gold.
The federal governments trading data show that money managers long bets on gold hit an all-time high just days before the Brexit referendum, and those wagers have paid off, with the metal is now up about 25% on the year thanks to an explosive price surge after the vote.
And golds run isnt over yet, experts say. The yellow metal could hit $1,424 by the end of 2016, according to one Bloomberg poll of industry players.
That number is no surprise to anyone who has been watching golds standout performance this year, and major investment banks such as ANZ, HSBC, and Societe Generale all predicted that bullion could top $1,400 if the Brexit agenda prevailed on June 23.
And Bank of America Merrill Lynch also sees gold as a winner amid the Brexit fallout, with analyst Michael Hartnett saying that higher levels of gold, volatility & cash will benefit.
Goldman ups call to $1,300: Now it looks like one major gold skeptic is having to sound the retreat on its longstanding bearish call. Arguing that spillovers into the U.S. rate markets and the flight-to-safety sentiment are likely to be more persistent because of the Brexit, Goldman Sachs just upgraded its three-month price target by a whopping $100, from $1,200 to now $1,300. It also increased its six-month prediction by $100, from $1,180 to $1,280, as well as its 12-month forecast from $1,150 to $1,250.
The ultimate trajectory will depend on the intensity and duration of the uncertainty shock created by the leave outcome and any potential revisions to the U.S. growth outlook, both of which remain highly fluid in the current context, Goldman analysts wrote.
Top Goldman economist Jeffrey Currie appeared on CNBC on Monday to grudgingly concede that we would view gold as a very good hedge for the type of political uncertainty we expect to see.
Fed rate expectations fade: And significantly, Goldman seems to think that the Federal Reserve wont be raising interest rates at all for quite some time. In gold, the sharp rise in prices has been entirely consistent with the move in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, as the Fed Funds market has pushed a U.S. rate hike now into 2018, the analysts wrote.
Wow. Just about three months ago gold tumbled on the prospect of at least two more imminent rate hikes this year. Now, with Mays disastrous jobs report working in tandem with Brexits still-unpredictable and ongoing carnage in the financial markets, rate-hike odds are now receding into the distant sunset. That means, conversely, that golds future is now even brighter. Look for Goldman to polish its bullion forecasts in coming months if the contagion from Brexit continues to deepen and spread.





