Theres no sugarcoating the fact that the Federal Reserves hawkish talk of an imminent interest-rate hike has spooked the precious metals market.

For the month of May, gold lost 6% while silver surrendered 10%. However, both metals remain up roughly 15% each for the year, and seasonally, May is often a weaker month for gold prices, historical data show.

A short-term pullback: And with a relatively positive Beige Book released Wednesday, the odds of a Fed rate hike are now at 24% in June and 53% in July. But remember what happened after Decembers rate increase? Stocks fell, and gold and silver rose. The price weakness in the metals before the Feds year-end move was a great time to get in. Is that happening again now?

Investors who can see the forest for the trees see golds dip as an opportunity in disguise. One of the hardest things to do is to be patient, Adam Koos of Libertas Wealth Management Group told MarketWatch. For now, if youre not in the trade, Id be looking to get in at these prices. The market is telling me that gold broke its long-term downtrend a few months ago and what were seeing today is simply a short-term pullback in an overall long-term positive trend.

Mints year-on-year gold sales pop: And Koos isnt alone in that buy the dip line of thought. The U.S. Mints bullion sales continue to go through the roof compared with this time last year.

In May the Mint sold 76,500 ounces of gold American Eagle coins. That totals down 27.5% from April but up 255.8% compared with May 2015. Year to date, sales total 427,500 ounces to more than double the 197,000 ounces sold during the January to May period in 2015, Coin News noted.

Gold American Buffalo coin sales hit 18,500 ounces in May a 5% dip from April but about double the total of 9,500 ounces purchased in May 2015. Year to date, sales at 98,000 ounces are 29.8% higher than the 75,500 ounces sold during the first five months of last year, Coin News confirmed.

Silver Eagle selling at record clip: And silver American Eagles remain absolutely on fire, with more than 4.498 million ounces sold in May despite rationing by the Mint up more than 10% versus Aprils sales and more than 122% higher than those sold in May 2015. With more than 23.4 million ounces sold so far in 2016, the Mint is well on its way toward breaking 2015s record sales tally of 47 million, with its current pace more than 38% higher than at the same time last year.

In addition to booming coin sales, gold ETF inflows increased by 80 tons in May despite the price dip. But for some gold experts, ETFs are no substitute for the real thing.

ETFs might not suffice in the future: Were getting to the point where people are going to be able to see the picture, and at that point gold is the answer, Vulpes Investment Management adviser Grant Williams said in a recent interview. Its not just an asset anymore; its the answer to a lot of peoples questions. When that happens, I think the most important stage of this completes itself and that is the resolution between the paper price and the physical asset. I think when we get to that point where people want to own gold, ETFs wont suffice anymore. A promise to deliver three months hence is not going to be sufficient anymore; people are going to want to own the asset. At that point you realize that there are multiple hundreds of claims per ounce, and those claims wont be worth anything anymore. Its going to be the asset, and thats the end game.

He added, I dont buy gold; I own it. I dont buy gold at $1,100 because I think its going to go to $1,200. I buy it for what it does, not what the price is. The price is the last consideration for me.

Dont be caught without the ultimate financial-crisis insurance: that is, physical gold and silver.

The Group of Seven gathering wrapped up last week with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abes warning about the dangers of a new Lehman-style collapse being downplayed by his colleagues. Now this week come renewed concerns from French banking giant Societe Generale about some looming black swans on the horizon.

8 of past 10 Junes have been rough: And in the shorter term, brace yourself for a potentially volatile month ahead. June historically can be the worst for financial markets. Eight of the last ten June’s has been down, Martin Currie fund manager Michael Browne told CNBC. It is the worst month of the year in the last decade, not by a little bit but by an absolute street.

And UBS just outlined some major events coming fast and furious in June that could unsettle markets. The Swiss banks list includes three major central-bank meetings (the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan), along with key votes in Europe: the United Kingdoms June 23 Brexit referendum on whether to leave the European Union, as well as Spain’s June 26 general elections.

Euro uncertainty is top risk: On the macro level, SocGen warns that risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside. It compiled its own list of so-called black swan events unexpected or surprise occurrences with the power to affect the world. Its top black swans are:

1. Double-drag from European policy uncertainty: 40%
2. China hard landing: 30%
3. Sharp re-pricing of Fed expectations: 25%
4. Sharply weaker global growth: 20%

Commenting on the risks in Europe, its analysts wrote, With a very busy political agenda lined up for the coming quarters, the risk of an event delivering an unexpected outcome remains high, be it the OMT (outright monetary transactions) judgment from the German Constitutional Court on June 21, the U.K. Brexit referendum on June 23, Spanish election on June 26, Italian referendum in October and heading into 2017, elections in France, Germany, Netherlands and possibly Italy.

Bubble building in Chinese real estate: China’s economic problems, which shocked global markets in the past year and sent gold prices soaring, haven’t gone away either. The potential for policy errors in China is substantial, and all the more so since a new bubble appears to be building in the property market, the bank wrote. The authorities are clearly keen to start recognizing and tackling the mountain of non-performing loans. The approach will be one of trial and error, with the downside risks implied in the name.

The main concern for U.S. markets continues to be the likelihood of an interest-rate increase from the Fed. SocGen sees the central bank standing pat on rates until December, but its pronouncements along the way can rattle investors.

If the Fed sends too hawkish a message, the risk is that the re-pricing could turn disorderly. On the flip side, too dovish a Fed could see bond markets unnerved by higher inflation readings and an ever tighter labor market, SocGen said.

Although it thinks the risks of a global recession have receded somewhat, the triggers remain in place. A prolonged negative market response is the most likely mechanism to take a slowdown to outright recession, it warned.

With so many uncertainties looming in the next 30 days and beyond, investors should consider adding precious metals to their portfolios as a time-tested financial insurance policy. The ride ahead could be bumpy without it.

The week before the Memorial Day holiday weekend was brutal for gold, but with trading resuming Tuesday, bargain hunters stepped in to snap up some of the yellow metal.

Any why not buy now? Bloomberg reports that golds relative strength index shows that the metal is now entering oversold levels. Gold-linked exchange-trade funds are holding up so far. ETF investors see the current price weakness as being merely temporary and are taking advantage of price falls as a good opportunity to buy, Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note. We also believe that the current dip is merely a correction rather than a prolonged downswing.

And in contrast, an analysis of price-to-sales ratios shows that stocks are even more expensive than they were during the tech bubble in 2000.

Fed move could be priced in: Up about 1%, gold was trading near $1,216 by Tuesday afternoon. Silver struggled in comparison and was trading just under $16 in the afternoon session.

With gold having shed about 6% in the month of May, investors know that as long as the metal holds the $1,200 level, the near-term picture is solid. With gold up, it suggests the Fed fears are already marked into the market, RBC Wealth Management exec George Gero said Tuesday of expectations that the Federal Reserve might soon raise interest rates.

Some poor U.S. economic data also gave gold a boost and dented stocks, with the Dow Jones turning negative for the month of May. A consumer confidence poll published by The Conference Board showed a plunge to 10-month lows. Meanwhile, two manufacturing gauges confirmed that the industrial sector remains in a veritable recession: The Chicago PMI barometer fell back into contraction mode, while the Dallas Federal Reserves survey logged its 17^th straight month in negative territory.

Poll confirms Brexit fears rising: And Fed watchers no doubt have been watching recent polls showing that the tide could be turning toward a Brexit, or United Kingdom voters choosing to leave the European Union in a June 23 national referendum. A Guardian newspaper poll both online and via telephone found that a majority of Brits (52% versus 48%) favor a Brexit.

With the referendums outcome extremely uncertain, the U.S. Fed likely will be very loathe to raise interest rates at its June meeting, and that rate-hike threat has been perhaps the biggest reason for the metals pullback from $1,300.

Crucial jobs report due Friday: Investors also will be looking to Fridays nonfarm-payrolls report from the U.S. Labor Department for more clues on what the Fed might do with interest rates at its June meeting. A low number might almost ensure that the central bank stands pat, as it has set jobs creation as one of the rationales for its easy-money policies. Several economists already are predicting a disappointing set of numbers in the report.

A negative jobs report could give gold prices a leg up from recent lows, making the current level near $1,220 a bargain entry price for investors looking to get into precious metals or fortify their positions even further.

Another news event that investors should be aware of is Fed chief Janet Yellens speech set for June 6 in Philadelphia, at which she could give further clues on the central banks near-term policy. At this point, though, it appears that July would be the likeliest rate-hike month if one occurs soon. June is too close to the Brexit vote, while the September and November meetings are uncomfortably close to the U.S. presidential election.

The market for silver got a little brighter this week with the release of two strong real-estate reports: New-home sales jumped in April, while pending-home sales hit their highest level in a decade.

Silver famously enjoys a dual nature as a monetary metal and a commodity. Because of silver’s strong industrial applications, which run from solar power to appliances and insulation, the housing data were seen as bullish for the metal.

Traders are all looking at the pending home sales, which were terrific, and you had good new-home sales, RBC Wealth Management exec George Gero told Bloomberg. That’s been helping silver. Basically, they’re looking at it as an industrial metal, not as a precious metal.

The housing reports follow news from the Royal Canadian Mint, which saw its silver Maple Leaf coins hit an all-time sales record in the first quarter, as well as bullish supply-and-demand prognoses from Thomson Reuters GFMS and the Silver Institute.

We’ve also seen some major firms and investment banks increase their silver-price targets, including CPM Group, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Deutsche Bank.

But the latest price target touted by a mining official this week takes the cake. First Majestic Silver Corp. CEO Keith Neumeyer is now predicting three-digit silver.

For the near term, Neumeyer said, The bottom is in. Were in the beginning of a new bull phase in a very cyclical market. Gold prices are being very supportive here. Silver prices have moved higher obviously. I think we’ll end in the $20 range in silver and probably around $1,500 gold by the end of the year.

For the longer haul, his three-digit silver forecast is for $140 by 2019! That would be almost triple the roughly $50 peak last seen in 2011. The highest projection among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is $57 an ounce in 2019, the news agency noted.

Neumeyer’s $20 target looks reasonably realistic for the coming months, but his $140 forecast disputed by several analysts interviewed by Bloomberg is certainly rich food for thought.

The leaders of the Group of Seven nations met this week, and Japans prime minister had a stark warning for them: The world is facing a financial crisis as big as the 2008 Lehman Bros. collapse.

Falling commodity prices, led by crude oil, are the canary in the coalmine, Premier Shinzo Abe told his colleagues. Abe presented documents showing that commodity prices had fallen by 55% between 2014 and January 2016, similar to the margin by which they fell in 2008-09, Bloomberg reported.

The 2008 Lehman Bros. bankruptcy helped trigger the global financial crisis. Emerging markets particularly China, which is up to its neck in debt are seen as the main potential weak link this time around.

JPMorgan threatens U.S. stability: Of course, many other triggers exist. The U.S., which is supposedly one of the bright lights in the global economy, is itself overdue for a recession. A planned Federal Reserve interest-rate hike could strengthen the dollar further and wreak more havoc on emerging markets. Nevertheless, Fed chief Janet Yellen told a Harvard audience that the Fed might have to hike soon to have fresh ammo in case of a shock to the economy.

And just last month, regulators rejected the living wills of five major U.S. banks, singling out JPMorgan for special concern. A heavily redacted letter sent by the Federal Reserve and the FDIC to JPMorgan warned the megabank that flaws in its emergency plan pose serious adverse effects to the financial stability of the United States.

Japan which has implemented massive quantitative-easing programs and, more recently, negative interest rates in order to revive its stagnant economy was contemplating increasing the nationwide sales tax (from 8% to 10%), but Abe said he is delaying that plan because of his fears of a looming Lehman-style event.

Serious risks acknowledged: We agreed on the perception that we are facing serious risks, that the world economy is facing serious risks, Abe said in summarizing the meeting, while top aide Hiroshige Seko noted that G7 leaders voiced the view that emerging economies are in a severe situation, although there were views that the current economic situation is not a crisis.

Those clashing views resulted in the G7 not adopting Abes concerns in their post-summit communique. Instead of using Abes wording (We recognize the risk of the global economy exceeding the normal economic cycle and falling into a crisis), the final statement says that G7 nations have strengthened the resilience of our economies in order to avoid falling into another crisis.

Self-fulfilling sentiment feared: The G7 still sees growth on a positive track. The global recovery continues, but growth remains moderate and uneven, and since we last met downside risks to the global outlook have increased, its statement said. Weak demand and unaddressed structural problems are the key factors weighing on actual and potential growth.

The G7 leaders are either correct in their summation, or are in denial about the risks Abe warned about, or are afraid of talking down the global economy.

The G7 is obviously aware of the announcement effect the official communique has, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group economist Glenn Maguire said. In such a situation, warning of negative risks and sentiment can become self-fulfilling.

We have now gotten to the point where the worlds leaders are too scared to admit the truth over fears it will merely accelerate its inevitable arrival, Zero Hedge noted.

Gold emerged intact from Lehman wreckage: Almost no one except for a handful of market sages saw the 2008-09 financial crisis coming, most notably then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. If Abe is correct in his concerns, then now is the time to exercise an abundance of caution and prepare with safe-haven assets such as gold and silver bullion and rare coins.

After all, what thrived when all else failed in the last crisis? Gold. Those of us who lived through the 2008 financial debacle understand the importance of having a proactive plan to help overall portfolios limit their downside risk to pure guesses by the Fed. The collapse in the markets triggered a rush to gold, and intense demand and limited supplies energized an already-established bull market that saw the price peak at all-time nominal highs in 2011.

By Douglas LePre, Senior Portfolio Manager at Blanchard and Company, Inc.

In the many years that I’ve been in this market, one of my favorite areas of interest has always been type silver coins, regardless as to whether they are proof or mint state.

One of the many factors associated with my love of silver coinage is the various ways in which they tone as they age. Oxidation or toning as its referred to can be either amazingly colorful and beautiful or really dark and hard to appreciate. In my opinion toning always adds a layer of intrigue to any coin, and in some instances, quite a bit of value.

In just the last seven to 10 years, toned coins have become increasingly more popular with collectors and investors alike. I think they bring another layer to the thrill of the hunt.

Silver, gold, nickel and copper all tone at their own pace because toning takes place as a result of many different factors. Basically, coins tone as the base metal in a coin reacts with its surrounding environment. Temperature, humidity and even the means of storage can all play a role in how a coin tones.

Different gases in the air can also lead to different types of toning. One of them sulfur occurs naturally and will combine with the moisture in the air to accelerate toning. Most coins that were preserved prior to the introduction of acid-free paper or clear PVC were stored in paper and cardboard holders, wrapped in white tissue paper, sealed in brown or manila envelopes or stored in antique coin albums each of which contributed to the toning process.

Listed below are some general descriptions of how different coins tone and what collectors might expect to see from the variety of metals used in the minting process:

Copper: Orange to red or reddish-brown, and full brown to almost black.
Nickel: Silverish to a smoky gray
Silver: Blast white to light grey to black. Also greens, magenta, orange, gold and blue. Sometimes rainbow-style colors may appear, which can add significant value.
Gold: Bright yellow to orange. Sometimes a reddish color.

Sometimes its hard to see a coins beauty when its toned very darkly from dark blue to almost black. However, in other instances a coin can possess the full spectrum of a rainbow, and even still there are coins that simply possess a grayish patina that gives them a crusty original look.

Whatever the look or cause, toned coins are generally either something collectors love or hate.

There are many collectors who prefer white coins to toned examples simply because the un-toned version can cost less! Coins with rainbow toning or coins that are vibrantly toned usually carry a price tag that can be as high as two to three times that of a pure white example in the same grade.

While most toning happens naturally to coins, collectors should also be aware that some toning unfortunately can also be simulated artificially by those trying to make a quick buck. Just search the Internet to find a variety of procedures online for creating a toned appearance on coins.

Why would someone try to artificially tone a coin? Its either an attempt to improve a coins eye appeal so it can be sold for a higher price, or more often, the artificial toning is being used to hide imperfections the coin already possesses.

Regardless as to the motivation, once a coins surface has been tampered with the value of it instantly diminishes considerably. No matter how beautiful it may look and some artificially toned pieces look gorgeous if its artificially toned collectors should avoid it at all costs.

It usually takes a trained eye to distinguish whether a coin has been artificially altered or not, so collectors in search of beautifully toned coins should only purchase examples graded by the leading certification companies (PCGS or NGC) to ensure theyre purchasing the authentic article.

Collecting toned coins is a great way to expand the enjoyment that coin collecting has to offer. I find these special works of art fascinating, gorgeous, and in some instances, worth the price. I suggest that everyone take the time to explore the world of toned coins, it really does create a new layer of beauty to an already amazing medium.

Monday brought news that U.S. manufacturing output collapsed to its lowest level since the financial crisis. Given this underlying weakness in the economy, if the Federal Reserve is actually serious about raising interest rates in June or July, it risks committing a policy error that sets a fresh fire underneath gold prices.

Any Fed rate tightening is widely expected to be bearish for stock prices. That reaction is going to be negative, said Krishna Memani, chief investment officer of OppenheimerFunds. The Fed cant kid itself on that.

The key factor that drives gold is the threat to equities, so if you sort of think through that the Fed rate hike may actually trigger a selloff in equities, that will probably be very positive for gold, and as long as gold holds the $1,200 level, I still think its a pretty good long, argued BK Asset Managements Boris Schlossberg in a recent CNBC appearance.

And one Deutsche Bank team thinks that if the Fed hikes prematurely, we will re-enter the doom loop from a more hawkish Fed to a stronger dollar, lower oil prices, higher [high-yield] credit spreads and lower equity markets. The end result is that the central bank might have to reverse those hawkish measures by cutting rates again.

Greater volatility requires gold: Citing the effects of Fed moves, a major wealth management firm in the United Arab Emirates is going so far as to predict gold will hit $1,400 this year and $1,800 by the end of 2017, Bloomberg is reporting.

We believe that policy mistakes by central bankers, in this case the Federal Reserve, will lead to greater volatility in the global economy, maybe another slide in those growth rates into the future, creating more problems for the financial system, said Gary Dugan, chief investment officer atEmirates NBD PJSC. And so we believe that typically, a client should have 5% to 10% of their portfolio in gold, and should be buying after the recent dips of the last week.

Islamic gold standard could be huge: And that advice could be huge as the Islamic world moves toward developing a gold standard based on Shariah law, which forbids interest payments and investing in industries such as gambling and alcohol. A Bahrain-headquartered group called the Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) is working with the World Gold Council and Amanie Advisors to craft that standard.

A gold standard based on Shariah law would require investment options directly linked to physical bullion not substitutes like Comex gold futures.

So far, Islamic investors have been reluctant to invest in gold because to do so, they would need the metal in physical form as an underlying asset, which is rarely the case in conventional gold trade, Qatars Gulf Times news site reported.

We are almost there in finalizing a gold-standard plan for the AAOIFI, said Shariah expert Mohd Daud Bakar.

Overwhelming demand noted: The upshot is that hundreds of tons of new gold demand could be created, said the WGCs Natalie Dempster. The standard would fill an important gap in the market.

She told the Gulf Times: We found that there is overwhelming demand for gold to play a greater role in Islamic finance. Our discussions with industry participants signal that it will act as a major catalyst for the development of a broad range of Shariah-compliant gold products such as gold accumulation plans and physically-backed gold funds.

Thus, as central banks such as the Fed continue to lose the confidence of investors worldwide, gold should stand to gain, and the Islamic world is positioning itself to become an even greater source of heavy demand for the yellow metal.