Blanchard Index

Precious Metals

Gold climbed ahead of the holidays on renewed expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. There are growing signs the U.S. jobs market is weakening further as mass layoffs spread across the economy devastating workers just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

• New York Fed President John Williams said last week that U.S. interest rates could fall “in the near term” without putting the Fed’s inflation goal at risk, to help guard against a slide in the job market.

Gold climbed to $4,090.60 an ounce as precious metals buyers actively bought short-lived dips toward the $4,000/4,020 level in November. Gold also gained support amid further declines in the U.S.dollar, which is down 7% on the year.

While gold has delivered stellar performance this year, silver is even hotter, with a whopping 64% gain since January. Silver is now trading above $50 an ounce driven higher by both investment and industrial demand.

Global demand for silver has outstripped supply since 2020, according to the industry trade group the Silver Institute. Silver is widely used in electronics and manufacturing and is a key element to just about anything with an on-and-off switch. As industrial demand continues to outstrip supply, silver is expected to climb even higher in 2026, with Bank of America projecting gains to $65 an ounce.

Stock market volatility remains elevated heading into the holiday season as the S&P 500 Index tumbled and closed lower for the fourth week in a row. The stock market’s technical picture has deteriorated as it violated a multi-month uptrend and closed below its 10-week moving average for the first time since April. Stock market sentiment has turned negative amid concerns over the AI-driven tech sector, and rising concerns that an economy-wide recession could emerge if the stock market tumbles 20% or 30%.

Key Takeaway: The gold market’s long-term uptrend points higher. The precious metal has seen strong buying interest on dips this month and numerous Wall Street banks expect gold to climb to fresh record highs at $5,000 in 2026. Current conditions represent an orderly pause to the long-term, secular uptrend in precious metals and offer buyers an excellent opportunity to increase their allocation to gold and silver.