Blanchard Index
Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations
Index updated March 1, 2025
The Blanchard Monthly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.
Check back each month for insights and commentary from our leading experts and contributors.
The Blanchard Economic Report
Gold Climbs 12% in First Two Months of 2025
Gold has emerged as a shining star of safety in a world filled with economic, political and military uncertainty, soaring 12% in the first two months of the year, handily outpacing the stock market.
Consumer Confidence Takes a Hit
American are worried. Concerns about inflation, the impact of tariffs and weakness in the jobs market are rippling into confidence data, which continued to spiral lower in February. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 98.3. That marked the third monthly consecutive decline and the biggest monthly fall since August 2021.
Key takeaway: Because consumer spending makes up 70% of U.S. GPD, recent confidence data warns of a potential pullback ahead.
Government Layoffs Dent Jobs Market
Looking at the job front, through late February roughly 30,000 federal government workers had lost their jobs or been fired. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 242,000 in the week ending February 22. That’s up from 220,000 in the prior week and was bigger than the 221,000 consensus estimate forecast. However, jobless claims for federal employees are reported with a one-week lag to claims for state programs. So it is too early to see the full impact of civil servant layoffs in the data.
Key takeaway: For those Americans who work in the public sector, and even the research sectors, there are concerns about job security, which could lead to more cautious discretionary spending in the months ahead.
Inflation Moves Higher
Inflation moved in the wrong direction—as the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.5% to 3.0% in January, its biggest gain since August 2023. And, while egg prices soared 15.2%, the inflation jump isn’t just from eggs. Price increases on shelter, gasoline and food (including meats, dairy and fish) and higher used car and truck prices contributed to a broad rise in American consumer goods prices. Prescription medication and car insurance also saw big price jumps to start the year.
Key takeaway: What’s more, these consumer price increases were recorded before the impact of any of President Trump’s new tariffs took effect. That means there could be more jumps in inflation in the months ahead.
A Fracturing World Order
Geopolitics continue to heat up with a late February White House meeting with President Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The meeting was cut short, lunch was cancelled and a joint press conference also did not happen after a blow-up between the two leaders unfolded in the Oval Office over Russia’s war in the Ukraine.
Key takeaway: The growing rift between Ukraine and the U.S. opens questions on the security of Europe and has also created a divide between the United States and its traditional European allies.
Investors Turn to Gold as Store of Value in Times of Uncertainty
Amid growing uncertainty on the economy and the state of the world, investors are turning to the safety of gold. The precious metal climbed to a new all-time record high in February and came within a whisker of the $3,000 an ounce level. The gold uptrend remains strong and Wall Street firms continue to see more gains for precious metals in the months ahead.
Key takeaway: In February, Goldman Sachs raised its price target for gold in 2025, calling for another 8% increase to the $3,100 an ounce level this year.
Our Recommendations
The high-end rare coin market remains an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors. Rare coins offer investors an opportunity for significant price appreciation in the current environment.
The appeal of rare coins to investors is their impressive historical price appreciation, which has outpaced the level of the underlying precious metal.
Buying Rare Coins
For investors able to hold 5–10 years, ultra-rare acquisitions offer the safest store of wealth and the strongest growth potential. Accumulate the highest-quality coins that you can afford. This strategy will pay off handsomely as rarity tends to appreciate the fastest.
Buying Precious Metals
An accumulation strategy is probably the best option for clients wishing to add to holdings.
Trading Precious Metals
Silver continues to offer a better value than gold. Generally, readings above 65 signal that silver is undervalued and is a strong buy signal for the metal.
The gold/silver ratio is a way for investors to measure the relative value of these two metals. The ratio indicates the number of ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold. Investors have long turned to this ratio to identify attractive long-term entry points for precious metals purchases. A high ratio is generally viewed as a signal that silver is undervalued relative to gold. That is what we’re seeing now.
Current Ratio: 91 oz. silver = 1 oz. gold
You may want to consider converting some gold holdings into silver.
Popular silver products: 10 oz. & 100 oz. silver bars, Silver American Eagles in monster boxes.
