Precious Metal Market Outlook & Bullion Trading Economic Trends

Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations

Index updated April 13, 2026

Blanchard's Bi-weekly Index

The Blanchard Bi-weekly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.

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U.S.-Iran peace talks failed over the weekend opening the door to a new phase in the Middle East war. The U.S. has placed more than 15 warships to enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, including ships that have paid Iran a toll for safe passage. Oil prices climbed back above $100 a barrel, stocks are little changed and gold is steady around $4,721 an ounce. The failed peace talks increase the risk of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. There is no news of any new peace talks planned.

Inflation concerns are mounting following the latest U.S. consumer price index data and the U.S. decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to worsen the global energy supply shock. Before the war, 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquified natural gas passed through the strait. Concerns over inflation are adding to ideas of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy, which is negative for gold which benefits from lower interest rates.

Key Takeaway:

Gold has slipped about 10% since the U.S. first dropped missiles on Iran at the end of February, as investors sold bullion to cover other losses. Gold is one of the most liquid asset classes available in the world, which means investors can raise cash even when other markets freeze. In recent weeks, gold has been edging higher as investors focus on slowing economic growth. Swiss Bank UBP is actively adding bullion to client portfolios with expectations for gold to climb to $6,000 by year-end. Central bank buying and geopolitical tensions are two major drivers expected to continue to underpin the long-term uptrend in gold.

Economic Update

March Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9%–largest gain since mid-2022. The war with Iran created a sharp jump in gasoline and diesel prices pushing the annual rate of inflation to 3.3%. Economists expect the April inflation numbers to be even worse.
The war has sent oil prices sharply higher and the national average for gasoline now sits at $4.07 a gallon, according to GasBuddy data. Gas prices are expected to continue climbing until there is a meaningful restoration of oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
April consumer sentiment plunged to record low. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index collapsed to an all-time low of 47.6 in April, down from March’s final reading of 53.3. That matched the worst reading on record which occurred in 2009, during the depths of the Global Financial Crisis.

Key Takeaway:

If the inflation/energy shock is short-lived and temporary, the Fed still may have wiggle room to lower interest rates towards the end of 2026. The longer the U.S. – Iran war continues, the Fed may have no choice but to keep rates steady or even raise rates to combat rising inflation.

Gold is expected to continue climbing higher throughout 2026, with central bank purchases as a key pillar of support. Official buying is estimated at around 850 tons of gold bullion in 2026, and is expected to create a structural floor for gold prices. For the first time since 1996, global central banks now hold more gold than U.S. government bonds. This represents a strategic, long-term structural shift in how global central banks think about their reserves, favoring the safety and independence of bullion versus fiat currencies.