Blanchard Index
Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations
Index updated April 1, 2025
The Blanchard Monthly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.
Check back each month for insights and commentary from our leading experts and contributors.
The Blanchard Economic Report
Extraordinary Gold Rally Continues: Gold Hits Major Milestone in March
In March, gold set a major milestone as it soared above the $3,000 barrier for the first time in history and then eclipsed the $3,100 level. Year-to-date, gold has sprinted 19% higher and is still climbing. This year, 2025, marks the fourth consecutive year in a row that gold has reached new all-time highs.
As the wide-ranging U.S. tariff policy was rolled out in recent weeks, the stock market accelerated its decline in March. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices tumbled over 10%, officially falling into correction territory. Investors dumped stocks amid fears that corporate profits would sink amid the high cost of tariffs on domestic importers, and that tariffs would slow U.S. economic growth and stoke inflation.
The U.S. automotive industry could be especially hard hit. The tariffs could drive up the price of new car costs as much as $12,200 for some models, according to a report from Anderson Economic Group, a Michigan economic consultancy firm.
Notably, the widely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator now signals a decline of 3.7% gross domestic product growth in the first quarter, as the impact of the tariff policy begins to make its way through the American economy. That’s an abrupt turnaround from just two months ago, when a 2%+ gain in GDP was forecast for the first quarter. This is an early indicator of GDP growth and is not the final government report.
The plunge in the stock market helped fuel increased demand for gold throughout March. As investors exited the stock market, many turned to the safety and security of gold, which has acted as a store of value and medium of exchange for the past 5,000 years.
Federal Reserve Acknowledges Uncertain Economic Environment
At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. After last year’s expectations that a “soft landing” could be achieved, meaning the economy could shake off inflation without falling into recession, the picture has now changed.
Fed officials warned: “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased” as the White House puts its new policy changes into action. Indeed, the Fed downgraded the U.S. economic outlook for 2025 and now expects economic growth to be weaker in 2025, unemployment to be higher in 2025 and inflation to be higher in 2025.
Digging into the details, Fed officials now forecast GDP growth at 1.7% in 2025, that’s a decrease from their December forecast at 2.1%. The Fed now expects the unemployment rate to climb to 4.4% this year, that’s up from a 4.3% forecast in December. The Fed now expects Core PCE inflation to climb to 2.8% this year, up from its 2.5% forecast in December.
Gold: Looking Ahead
The gold uptrend remains strong, the trend points higher and the bulls have momentum. Major Wall Street banks increased their forecasts for gold. Morgan Stanley now predicts that gold could reach $3,400 in 2025, Bank of America raised its forecast to $3,500 and Goldman Sachs said gold could reach $4,500 in a low probability “extreme tail scenario.” All cylinders are firing hot and point to higher prices ahead for gold.
Time for a Portfolio Check-Up
Holding tangible assets like physical gold and silver offers investors like you a counter-balance when the stock market falls. While the S&P 500 has retreated into correction territory, many on Wall Street warn that more stock losses could lie ahead. History shows that when stocks fall sharply, the price of gold soars.
One of the best things you can do during these uncertain times is to check in with your Blanchard portfolio manager to review your risk tolerance and asset allocation levels to ensure you are fully protected and prepared for what could lie ahead. The strong uptrend in gold shows no signs of slowing. If you act now, there’s still time to increase your allocation to tangible assets and take part in the historic gold rally of 2025.
Our Recommendations
The high-end rare coin market remains an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors. Rare coins offer investors an opportunity for significant price appreciation in the current environment.
The appeal of rare coins to investors is their impressive historical price appreciation, which has outpaced the level of the underlying precious metal.
Buying Rare Coins
For investors able to hold 5–10 years, ultra-rare acquisitions offer the safest store of wealth and the strongest growth potential. Accumulate the highest-quality coins that you can afford. This strategy will pay off handsomely as rarity tends to appreciate the fastest.
Buying Precious Metals
An accumulation strategy is probably the best option for clients wishing to add to holdings.
Trading Precious Metals
Silver continues to offer a better value than gold. Generally, readings above 65 signal that silver is undervalued and is a strong buy signal for the metal.
The gold/silver ratio is a way for investors to measure the relative value of these two metals. The ratio indicates the number of ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold. Investors have long turned to this ratio to identify attractive long-term entry points for precious metals purchases.
A high ratio is generally viewed as a signal that silver is undervalued relative to gold. That is what we’re seeing now.
Current Ratio: 92 oz. silver = 1 oz. gold
You may want to consider converting some gold holdings into silver.
Popular silver products: 10 oz. & 100 oz. silver bars, Silver American Eagles in monster boxes.
