Precious Metal Market Outlook & Bullion Trading Economic Trends

Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations

Index updated September 30, 2025

Blanchard's Bi-weekly Index

The Blanchard Bi-weekly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.

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Market Movers

Precious Metals

Gold’s historic rally continues, up 49% since the start of the year. The record run into gold continued into late September, as the precious metal jumped to a new all-time high above $3,866 an ounce.

Investors piled into gold and silver as the nation braces for a potential U.S. government shutdown this week. A last minute deal could avert a shutdown, but in the meantime stocks slid lower as the government funding deadline looms large. If the government shuts down, some analysts believe it could be a long lasting event. The last government shutdown which started in 2018 extended 35 days. The Bureau of Labor Statistics warned it wouldn’t release the next employment report if the government shuts down, which generated concerns the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut rates amid a lack of economic data.

Key Takeaway

Stock market volatility is heightened and precious metals are the preferred safe-haven investment as political and economic uncertainty remains high. In a new research note, Citi hiked its fourth quarter target for gold to $4,000. Citi pointed to concerns over the massive U.S. government debt, worries about the sustainability of the U.S. dollar’s reserve status and the Fed’s independence as factors that will continue to drive gold higher this year.

Economic Update

US home prices still rising. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.7% in the 12 months through July. The national index revealed geographic disparities, with homes in New York City rising 6.4% year-over-year, while home prices in Tampa, Florida fell 2.8% over the same period. Average home prices in the U.S. stand around $422,600 in August, creating challenges for wannabe first-time homebuyers.
Inflation still above Fed’s 2% target. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which is the Fed’s preferred inflation forecasting tool revealed a 0.2% increase in the August core rate to 2.9%. The core rate excludes food and energy, which are everyday items for Americans.
US economy grew faster than expected. The third estimate of Q2 U.S. GDP came in at 3.8%, which is higher than the previous estimate at 3.3%. Upward revisions to consumer spending contributed to the better number. This followed a negative reading in the first quarter of the year, which revealed that economic growth shrank by 0.6%.

Key Takeaway

The U.S. economy is growing stronger-than-expected, but inflation remains elevated. Despite the mixed data messages, Wall Street widely expects the Fed to slash interest rates at its next meeting on October 29. The CME FedWatch tool reveals a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, which would be bullish for gold. Fed rate cuts historically have fueled ongoing bull markets in gold as it reduces the opportunity cost to hold non-yielding assets.