In three weeks we will have a new president-elect here in the United States. Will Hillary Clinton (D) or Donald Trump (R) be calling the moving trucks to prepare for a move to the White House? The jury is still out.

Wall Street analysts say its tough to truly determine which candidate will be the most positive for the financial markets amid all the current rhetoric.

One Wall Street firm believes that a Trump victory could be especially bullish for gold. In a new report released October 14, HSBC Global Research outlines the details noting that “Gold stands to benefit from growing protectionist sentiment globally; a Trump win would be especially bullish.”

Remember Brexit?

The current wave of populist policies and sentiment extend beyond simply the U.S. as notably seen in the surprise Brexit vote this summer, which also boosts safe-haven demand for gold, the HSBC report said. Also, “The possibility that a setback to world trade sparks a fresh round of currency depreciation is gold-friendly,” HSBC said.

What is the connection between gold and world trade?

This is important to consider in light of the increase in protectionist sentiment worldwide.

“Gold prices tend to rise during periods of contraction in world trade, and fall during periods of above-level growth,” HSBC says.

Global Growth Is Slowing

In late September, the World Trade Organization (WTO) slashed its forecast for global trade growth in 2016 by over a third to 1.7%. The WTO said this reflected a slowdown in China and falling levels of imports into the US.

Bottom line for gold: “This marks the first time in 15 years that international commerce was expected to lag the growth of the world economy. In a world where trade flows may be challenged, gold is likely to be an indirect beneficiary,” HSBC said.

Here’s another view. UBS released a new report on US Election Perspectives. The key pointsas we all knoware that the two candidates have quite different proposals for taxes and spending. Here’s a quick snapshot:

“The two candidates’ tax plans vary dramatically for both individual and corporate income taxes.

Put simply, Candidate Trump’s plans center around tax reductions while Senator Clinton’s plans center on tax increases. We expect the 10-year cost of Trump’s tax plans to add $7.3 trillion cumulatively to deficits, including higher interest payments, while Clinton’s tax plan would reduce the deficit by $1.6 trillion.

Likewise, the candidate’s spending plans vary dramatically. Senator Clinton plans to boost government spending by almost $1.3 trillion over 10-years. Candidate Trump has announced plans to reduce government spending by $400 billion over that same period.” UBS Global Research

The UBS economists conclude that: “Both plans boost growth by roughly the same amount over a 10-year period. Trump’s plan also boosts the deficit.”

VOTE: No matter your political stripe it is important to get out and vote. Democracies only work when people participate.

Time for A Portfolio Review: Financial markets are at a critical juncture. The stock market is overvalued and if you haven’t properly hedged your equity assets, now is the time to bolster your physical gold holdings. Gold has a negative correlation to stocks, which means when stocks fall, gold tends to rise.

The Blanchard Difference: Give us a call today at 1-866-764-9135 for a private consultation with one of our portfolio managers. We are a privately held family-owned company. Relationships matter. We care. We have assisted over 450,000 investors since we were founded in 1975, with over $1 billion in sales over the last three years. May we help you?

It’s a Topsy Turvy World

Savers traditionally earn interest on deposits at banks. Some of you may remember, back in 1985, a six-month CD rate earned nearly 11%, according to Bankrate.com. That is unthinkable today. Today a six-month CD earns a 0.16% rate.

But, hey at least it’s not negative, like many countries in Europe and also Japan today. Some on Wall Street are warning that global central bankers gambling on an economic outcome they may not be able to win.

Source

Globe Goes Negative

Nearly 500 million people currently live in countries that now have a negative interest rate environment, according to an S&P Global research report.

If the next U.S. recession hits before the Federal Reserve is able to normalize its still near-zero interest rate policy, negative interest rates could be coming to America too.

If the idea that a bank interest rate could go negative has you scratching your head, you aren’t alone. It is a little mind boggling.

The European Central Bank, the Danish Central Bank, the Swedish Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank have all set negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan also has set a negative interest rate. The basic aim is to encourage banks to lend money as opposed to sitting on cash reserves — in an effort to stimulate economic growth.

Many of the best minds in the investment community are alarmed at the potentially dangerous course that global policy makers have taken in recent years amid unsuccessful attempts to juice up economic growth.

Doubling Down At The Blackjack Table?

Bill Gross, the legendary portfolio manager at Janus Capital, took a hard look at the negative interest rate experiment in his October 2016 Janus Capital Group Investment Outlook, which he calls: Doubling Down.

Poker and blackjack players may be familiar with the concept of the so-called Martingale System. This suggests that is mathematically impossible to lose, as long as you have enough money, you keep on betting, and the casino is willing to take the bet.

Gross likens central banker’s experiment with negative interest rates as a Martingale approach that has turned our financial markets into a casino.

“Our financial markets have become a Vegas/Macau/Monte Carlo casino, wagering that an unlimited supply of credit generated by central banks can successfully reflate global economies and reinvigorate nominal GDP growth.” Bill Gross

Negative interest rates are an untested experiment. A policy of negative interest rates that remains in place too long could damage bank profitability, weakening one of the key credit transmission mechanisms that could help boost financial activity, according to S&P Global research.

Gold’s Historic Role as Currency, Store of Wealth Is Being Revived

In this environment, Gross concedes that investors are weary of receiving near zero returns on their money and are looking for higher returning and less risky alternatives. In this context, Gross points to gold.

How much of your portfolio do you have allocated to hard assets like physical gold? The traditional 60/40 stock-bond allocation doesn’t work in today’s topsy turvy environment. Stocks are near all-time highs, fueled by the relentless easy money policy by the Federal Reserve. But, where is the value?

Gross concludes his report with a warning: “Investors/savers are now scrappin like mongrel dogs for tidbits of return at the zero bound. This cannot end well.”

Blanchard Can Help Guide You Through This Process

Where is the real value today? In hard assets, like gold. Now is the time to diversify into gold and hedge your paper assets. Give us a call at 1-866-764-9135 and our portfolio managers will help design an individual investment plan just for you.

Who doesn’t wish they had bought Apple stock back in 1980 at $22 per share. With the numerous stock splits the company has seen, long-term investors reaped tremendous returns.

In the coin world, rarities are the “growth” stocks for investors.

Many investors who turn to physical gold and silver coins as a diversification strategy start out with gold bullion coins, like the American Eagle. This is a sound investment in today’s world where central bankers continue to devalue paper money in search of economic growth.

Long-term investors in search of the “growth” stocks in the rarities world can consider diversifying their portfolio even more with rarities. Rare coins are best suited for the long-term investor, such as five years or longer, and they have the most significant growth potential.

For investors who choose to allocate 20-30% of their overall portfolio to hard assets, we at Blanchard and Company recommend a further breakdown. See Figure 1 below.

In today’s technological society, cash may be on the verge of extinction in some corners of the world. A recent BBC report revealed that in the Netherlands it is increasingly difficult to use cash for day-to-day transactions. Attitudes about this, however vary widely by country and culture.

While the Dutch may be moving toward a cashless society, in Germany the bedrock of the European economy 75% of payments are still made in cash. Nonetheless we live in a world of debit cards, Apple Pay and other methods to pay with the swipe of your finger. The case can be made that this increases the value of rare coins even more. We live in a world where paper money and coins are being degraded by central banks easy monetary policies and also by government mints.

Most common coins minted today for daily usage aren’t even worth the value they purport to hold. A dime cost 3.9 cents to make, and a quarter 9 cents in 2014, according to a Wall Street Journal Report. The U.S. Mint made $289.1 million that year on seignioragethe difference between the value of the coin and the cost to make it.

The changing technology around money transfers creates an even higher level of allure, appreciation and rising value for many rarities. The numbers bear it out. Rare coins are increasing in value. See Figure 2 below.

Continued strength in U.S. gold coins has propelled the Index to new heights. The Index moved further into record territory in October, when it gained another 0.69 points to 395.06. The Rare Coin Value Index is based on the combined percent change in retail prices for 87 rare United States coins and is updated monthly. Chart source: US coin values advisor.

After all, central banks can’t print rare coins..

Build a Coin Set

If you haven’t already, consider building a rare coin set. Complete rare coin sets often sell for more than the total value of the individual coins comprising them, and such sets tend to be more liquid than collections of unrelated coins.

The strategy: the two most common sets are built around either:

• Coin type this includes coins sharing a specific characteristic such as design, designer, or denomination.

• Coin series – this includes each date and mint of a particular coin. Sets can also be organized by die variety, historical period, mint mark, year, or first and last year a coin was issued.

Many coins are passed down from father to son. Get your daughter involved too. Pull out some of your favorite coins this weekend and show your kids. Explain the history behind them. Tell them the story. Then, also explain what they are made of pure gold or silver. Show them how coins can help them to learn about historic places, important people and interesting eras through the designs and backgrounds of the coins.

Rare coins offer history, true value, a strong investment and even can help strengthen family bonds.

Call Us Today and Get Started

There are still bargains to be had they are known as “sleepers.” Our portfolio managers can help you learn more and identify smart investment moves. Call us today at 1-866-764-9135 and start building your set today.

Minted in commemoration of the idealistic French hero of the American War of Independence, the 1900 Lafayette silver dollar represents a rare opportunity for rare-coin collectors and investors. It was the first silver dollar commemorative coin, the first coin to depict a former U.S. president, and the first coin to depict the same person twice.

A member of one of Frances most esteemed noble families, whose male members were renowned for bravery in battle, Lafayette defied his king, family, and military superiors to sail to America and volunteer himself for the American struggle for independence. He was only 20 years old, and financed the voyage himself. Upon arrival in America, he was first rebuffed by the colonial leaders, but he offered to serve for free and was made a major-general in the Continental Army. Lafayette served with George Washington (who became a lifelong friend) at Valley Forge, was wounded at the Battle of Brandywine, and aided in the victory at Yorktown, Virginia.

After the war, Lafayette returned to France, where he played a pivotal part in the nations history, including drafting the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen a key document in the development of Western democracy. In 1824, Lafayette received a heros tour of the United States, and was honored by Congress.

Commemorating a Hero

In 1899, Congress approved legislation to coin silver dollars to commemorate Lafayette. Charles Barber, Chief Engraver of the Bureau of the Mint, created the design.

The obverse features Washington in profile, with Lafayette in profile behind him. Barber almost certainly derived the design from the 1881 Yorktown Centennial medal designed by Peter Krider, a Philadelphia engraver who created tokens and medals in the 1870s and 1880s.

The design on the reverse of the coin is based on an early sketch of a statue of Lafayette that was given to France by the schoolchildren of America. The coins, in fact, were a means of fundraising for the statue, which was intended to be unveiled on United States Day at the 1900 Worlds Fair in Paris. Lafayette appears on horseback, his sword raised in his right hand.

The commemorative coins were struck in 1899 at the Philadelphia Mint, and the first to be struck was given to the French president. The coins were sold to the public for $2 each by the commission in charge of the statue, although some were released into circulation at face value. 14,000 unsold coins went to the Treasury Building in Washington, D.C. where they were stored, only to be melted down for silver bullion in the 1940s.

Collecting a Lafayette Dollar Today

Because no attempts were made during striking to preserve the coins for collectors, many Lafayette dollars have contact marks from being ejected from the press into a hopper. Many of the coins also have contact marks from being in circulation. These two factors make it difficult to find Lafayette dollars of MS63 and higher quality today. Out of all silver commemorative coins, the Lafayette dollar at high MS levels is one of the most difficult to find.

Blanchard is pleased to offer the Lafayette dollar in the exceedingly rare condition of MS65. We expect this rare, historical coin to continue to increase in value.

Global investors have voted with their pocketbooks this year and gold and silver are the undisputed winners. There are no hanging “chads” to argue about or uncounted votes left on the floor.

Gold is up 24%, while silver has gained 36%

Both metals remain well below their all-time highs.

As the contest between U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R) remains a near dead-heat, nervous money managers around the world have been diversifying into gold.

No matter your political convictions, there are potential economic ramifications from a Clinton win versus a Trump win. Here is a quick look at a few factors that could impact the economy, financial markets and gold under both scenarios.

Source

Stock Market

Wall Street consensus right now shows a slight edge and expectation that Clinton will take the White House on November 8. That leaves open the door for a stock market shock to the downside if Trump pulls out a win.

Gold impact: Metals like gold and silver would likely show a knee jerk rally in response to a down move in stocks. Gold bullish.

The Federal Reserve

Under a Clinton victory, Janet Yellen is expected to remain in control of the Federal Reserve and an interest rate hike is likely in December.

Trump has criticized Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as being “political.” If Trump wins Novembers presidential election, there is a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December FOMC meeting, say economists at Capital Economics.

Gold impact: A Trump win could mean low interest rates for longer = gold bullish.

A Clinton win could leave door open for Yellen to hike rates, which could trigger sell-off in stocks and support gold and silver. Gold wins in either scenario.

Rising Deficits

Both presidential candidates oppose cutting entitlements (e.g., Social Security and Medicare) and favor additional spending on infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.),” according to a Wells Fargo Investment Institute research report.

Gold impact: bullish

Inflation

Trumps easier fiscal policy and decreased regulation could drive growth and inflation higher in the near term,” according to a research report from Credit Suisse.

Gold impact: Rising inflation is gold bullish

Trade Policy

It is widely expected if Trump wins in November that he would not ratify the current trade deals in progress. A bigger uncertainty and question for the economy and financial markets is would he carry out his threat to raise import tariffs of 35% and 45% on imports from Mexico, and China respectively.

Economic impact: If Trump did impose high tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, there would be a temporary rise in inflation in the US, say economists at Capital Economics. Gold impact: Rising inflation is bullish

Bigger risk:Aggressive trade policies from the U.S. could unleash a wave of protectionist measures similar to those which occurred after the Smoot-Hawley tariff in 1930 and are credited for contributing significantly to the Great Depression.

Gold impact: bullish. Gold remains a safe haven and flight to quality investment vehicle that stores wealth in slow and negative growth period, especially when central banks continue to devalue paper currency.

Status Quo Policies

“Clinton represents the status quo,” a Credit Suisse report says.

Another take: Clinton’s proposals for “taxes, spending, and regulation are negative for financial markets, but congressional compromises may blunt the impact somewhat. When combined with a more positive trade policy, the net overall market impact may be neutral,” Wells Fargo says.

Bottom line: The current environment of sluggish U.S. economic growth, ineffective monetary and fiscal policy has been extremely bullish for gold. A Clinton win could mean more of the same types of policies that have left the economy showing sub-par historical growth.

Gold impact: bullish

This presidential race is too close to call and economic risks loom like black clouds on the horizon. “Higher budget deficits and trade restrictions are prominent risks in our scenarios. Limiting trade, widening deficits, and raising the public debt should be negative for the dollar and U.S. financial asset prices during the next four years,” conclude economists in a Wells Fargo Investment Institute report.

In many scenarios, no matter who takes the White House, gold comes out a winner. What’s in your portfolio right now? Are you properly diversified with up to 30% in hard assets, which include gold and silver?

Take action now before the election roils markets. Gold and silver remain well below their all-time highs, which opens the door to another strong rally before year-end.

Saturday, October 1, marks a significant milestone in the world of global finance as the Chinese renminbi enters the basket of world reserve currencies, joining the U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound.

The decision by the International Monetary Fund to give the renminbi special drawing rights status (which was actually announced by the IMF last November) caps a multi-year effort by the Chinese government to gain entry into the exclusive club of global financial heavyweights.

Despite fears of the renminbi usurping the U.S. dollars dominant role in global markets, the greenback will retain its place as the worlds reserve currency of choice for some time to come. But gold investors should pay attention to the rise of the renminbi, as the Chinese economy continues to grow and gain influence on the global financial stage.

A symbolic move

The inclusion of the renminbi in the IMFs reserve currency basket is a de facto stamp of approval, denoting Chinas currency as a widely accepted and liquid form of exchange.

Chinas currency plays a small but growing role in global finance. With its special drawing rights status, more global central banks will add renminbi to its reserves. More business transactions will also be conducted in the currency, more than the 2% of trade that is done in renminbi as of 2014.

The ascension of the renminbi alongside the U.S. currency may seem a threat to the dollars long-time supremacy in global markets. It does change the game in many respects, but the dollars importance on the world financial stage isnt about to fade.

For one, the U.S. dollar will remain the dominant currency in the IMFs special drawing rights basket, at 41.7%, even after the renminbi is added to the mix. In fact, its the other reserve currencies (the euro, yen and British pound) that will lose share to make room for Chinas currency.

A matter of trust

Second, trust matters more than the IMFs tacit approval among financiers looking to do business in China. Financial reform in the country has come a long way, but the Chinese government needs to do more to increase transparency and build the regulatory infrastructure that can increase trust among the investment community.

The U.S. dollar wont lose its title as the worlds reserve currency anytime soon. That means commodities from oil and natural gas to precious metals like gold and silver will continue to be priced in dollars. Plus, fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar will continue to influence the price of gold and silver.

Thats not to say the dollars premier status is ironclad. The U.S. currencys leading position is under threat more from internal pressures: a large overhang of government debt that continues to grow and widening trade imbalances could loosen the foundation that has made the dollar the standard denomination for pricing hard assets.

Hedging reserve currency risks

But the challenge to the dollars dominance as the worlds reserve currency will be played out over the long term. A collapse in the dollar is an outlying possibility, but its a risk that gold can help hedge. Gold can act as a form of insurance to help preserve wealth should dollar-based assets plummet in value.

Gold is also an effective tool for portfolio diversification. Equity and bond investments will be affected by fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar. An allocation to gold in a portfolio can help lessen some of the risks investors face from higher volatility in the currency markets.

Greater acceptance of the renminbi will also bring more attention to changes in its value and flows in and out of the country. Any possible devaluation in the currency has the potential to upset global markets, much like what had occurred in August 2015. Those events would also increase investor demand for gold and help push gold prices higher.

Diversification is a smart investment approach not only between stocks, bonds and precious metals but also within the metals sector itself.

For just over a decade from roughly 2000 to 2011, platinum traded at a premium (or higher price) than gold. Currently, platinum trades at a discount to gold or simply put it’s about $280 cheaper per ounce. That means platinum is cheap relative to gold since the start of 2000.

Are platinum coins part of your precious metal strategy?

Platinum benefits from both investment demand, in the form of bars and coins, and also from significant industrial and manufacturing demand worldwide.

Platinum boasts a wide variety of industrial applications and revs up heavy demand from automakers for use in catalytic converters. Platinum is also used in dentistry, watch-making, in pacemakers and other medical treatment devices.

Demand for platinum coins has been on fire this year. In the first half of 2016, platinum coin sales increased by 98% year-on-year, according to the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters.

U.S. Mint Sells Out

Voracious investment demand emerged at the U.S. Mint this summer for platinum coins. In July, the U.S. Mint began selling platinum coins for the first time in two years and sold out completely of its inventory a month later.

In July, the Mint offered 20,000 legal tender 2016 American Eagles1-ounce platinum bullion coins. Within days, the Mint sold 19,000 ounces, marking July as the highest quarterly sales level since 2001. In August, the US Mint sold out of the remaining 1000 platinum coins available. The U.S. Mint does not sell its American Eagleplatinumbullion coins directly to the public. Instead, the platinum coins are offered to a list of approved firms called “authorized purchasers” who then resell them to dealers, collectors and investors.

The Big Picture

Precious metals from gold to silver to platinum are posting massive gains in 2016, far outpacing returns in stocks and bonds. Silver is the leader up 44% through Sept. 22, while gold recorded a 26% advance and platinum is up 19%.

Investors around the globe have been aggressively buying precious metals coins to diversify their portfolio, including gold, silver and platinum. The case for diversifying with precious metals is clear.

Source: World Gold Council

Precious metals coins and bars are a major asset class, just like stocks and bonds. Most importantly they show a negative correlation to the stock market, which means typically when stocks fall, precious metals rise. If one asset class is falling, it benefits your portfolio to own another asset that will rise during that time.

With platinum trading at a discount to gold since the beginning of 2016, its lower price point of entry has encouraged strong investment demand.

The Fundamentals

Despite the slowdown in global growth, industrial demand for platinum remains high in the automotive, chemicals and glass sectors and is estimated to rise by 10% in 2016, according to Johnson Matthey. Meanwhile, the platinum market is expected to show a deficit of 861,000 ounces this year.

Platinum coins and bars are a great way to diversify your bullion holdings, given their dual role as a precious metal investment but also one with strong industrial applications. Call Blanchard and Companys Portfolio Managers at 1.866.827.4314 to learn more.